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No major automaker will produce self-driving cars because self-driving cars greatly reduce the need for private car ownership. A two-car family might be able to
by simulate 14y ago
No major automaker will produce self-driving cars because self-driving cars greatly reduce the need for private car ownership. A two-car family might be able to manage with a single car if that car can drive itself to pick up individuals. Groups could pool their money to buy a single car the same way that fractional ownership of jets happens today but on a mass scale. The number of cars parked unused could go down substantially. Self-driving cars are a huge benefit for society and cities especially but a disaster for car companies.
- adamjernst 14y agoI'd watch out for the Jevons paradox though: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
- msg 14y agoToday's driving scenarios will be served by a small pocket of tomorrow's automated power, granted. If we have self driving cars, fast switching and routing, we may find ourselves in possession of a packet switched human transportation network. I think we'd need a lot of cars in that world. They might become commoditized like the PC was, but still a profitable business.
- mikeash 14y agoThey may be a disaster for the car companies, but they'd be a huge success for the only car company to have one, if only one car company had one. Thus is how competition can drive adopting new technologies even when they make their industry less profitable.