3 ms·
Is anyone familiar with the methodology used by Climate Analytics to create this projection? I find it really hard to believe that there is a 70% chance that in
by pera 2y ago
Is anyone familiar with the methodology used by Climate Analytics to create this projection? I find it really hard to believe that there is a 70% chance that in 2024 the world will peak in GHG emissions when at the same time CO2 measurements show a clear straight line:
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
NOAA Research doesn't seem very positive either: https://research.noaa.gov/2024/04/05/no-sign-of-greenhouse-gases-increases-slowing-in-2023/ https://research.noaa.gov/2024/04/05/no-sign-of-greenhouse-g...
- chrisbrandow 2y agoOur current levels lead to accumulation. So if we release identical amounts every year from here on out, we will continue increasing amount of co2 in atmosphere.
- pera 2y agoSorry the use of "peak" in the article and my comment implies a reduction right after (not a plateau): > “We find there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions,” authors wrote. “This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions.”
- hashmush 2y agoYes, a reduction in yearly emissions. But that doesn't mean that the CO2 in the atmosphere suddenly disappears. We're still adding to it, just not as much as before (hopefully).
- pera 2y agoBut that's the thing: if we are not adding as much as before then we should observe NOAAs chart curving, instead it still looks like a straight line (of course, it could also be that this reduction is so small that is not visible on the chart)