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He briefly mentions self driving cars along with a bunch of other unwanted and failed tech (metaverse, crypto etc) The difference with self-driving cars is tha

He briefly mentions self driving cars along with a bunch of other unwanted and failed tech (metaverse, crypto etc) The difference with self-driving cars is that everyone [1] wants them, and once "done well" they'll take off quickly. The advantages are just too obvious; mobility for those too young or too old, or medical unable to drive. The lack of needing parking right near your origin or destination. The expensive asset that is tied to single human location, so meaning it spends 98% of time idle. The road deaths caused by bad driving, drunk driving, stupid driving etc. Indeed self driving cars have so much upside they are inevitable. Sure the tech is hard, and we're not there yet, but the payoff is too big not to keep working on it. [1] yeah I get that there's some percentage of people who like driving and will continue to do that. Perdonally I enjoy driving, and I drive stick. We also have people who like riding horses. But that group will make a big noise for a while, but ultimately dwindle into a niche hobby.

sumeno 3y ago
> mobility for those too young or too old, or medical unable to drive. >The lack of needing parking right near your origin or destination. >The expensive asset that is tied to single human location, so meaning it spends 98% of time idle. >The road deaths caused by bad driving, drunk driving, stupid driving etc. We can do all these things now for most of the people in the US with expanded public transportation
- gizmo686 3y ago
  Even the best public transport has downsides relative to personal vehicles. A perfect self driving car is a drop-in replacement for a current car that is simply a better product.
- bruce511 3y ago
  I disagree that public transportation is a solution. It works in high-density situations where lots of people get on and off at each stop. In low density situations the stop time overhead leads to the journey being very slow.
lll-o-lll 3y ago
> Indeed self driving cars have so much upside they are inevitable. Sure the tech is hard, and we're not there yet, but the payoff is too big not to keep working on it. As are fusion reactors that generate more energy than the total that goes in. Or room-temperature super conductors, or AGI, or Quantum computers, or… Not all technologies that appear possible will be achieved in practice. It’s not inevitable. I would argue it’s not even likely at this point.
- bruce511 3y ago
  Of course there's an argument it can't be done. Which is fair enough. Some things are harder to do than others. Yes, I'm skeptical of fusion, and quantum computing for that matter. Both are hardware problems though while self-driving is software. History is littered with things that "couldn't be done" and which are part of life today. So im not sure I'd bet on them "never being done". And self-driving seems solvable, I don't see any physics being stretched here. However history
  - philipwhiuk 3y ago
    > Both are hardware problems though while self-driving is software. Is it though? Or is it a hardware problem disguised as a software problem.
runarberg 3y ago
You basically described all the advantages of public transit. And in fact fully automated vehicles are actually not that uncommon among public transit systems that operate on fixed guideways (most recently Skyline [or HART] in Honolulu). The only problem with a public transit system that gives you all of these advantages is the expensive infrastructure and operations required. However compared to everyone waiting for the tech to arrive (which may never happen) and then buying and maintaining a very expensive and bulky machine, building and operating a good public transit system using common funds is actually orders of magnitude cheaper, and far more economical.

sumeno 3y ago

> mobility for those too young or too old, or medical unable to drive. >The lack of needing parking right near your origin or destination. >The expensive asset that is tied to single human location, so meaning it spends 98% of time idle. >The road deaths caused by bad driving, drunk driving, stupid driving etc. We can do all these things now for most of the people in the US with expanded public transportation

gizmo686 3y ago
Even the best public transport has downsides relative to personal vehicles. A perfect self driving car is a drop-in replacement for a current car that is simply a better product.
bruce511 3y ago
I disagree that public transportation is a solution. It works in high-density situations where lots of people get on and off at each stop. In low density situations the stop time overhead leads to the journey being very slow.

lll-o-lll 3y ago

> Indeed self driving cars have so much upside they are inevitable. Sure the tech is hard, and we're not there yet, but the payoff is too big not to keep working on it. As are fusion reactors that generate more energy than the total that goes in. Or room-temperature super conductors, or AGI, or Quantum computers, or… Not all technologies that appear possible will be achieved in practice. It’s not inevitable. I would argue it’s not even likely at this point.

bruce511 3y ago
Of course there's an argument it can't be done. Which is fair enough. Some things are harder to do than others. Yes, I'm skeptical of fusion, and quantum computing for that matter. Both are hardware problems though while self-driving is software. History is littered with things that "couldn't be done" and which are part of life today. So im not sure I'd bet on them "never being done". And self-driving seems solvable, I don't see any physics being stretched here. However history
- philipwhiuk 3y ago
  > Both are hardware problems though while self-driving is software. Is it though? Or is it a hardware problem disguised as a software problem.

runarberg 3y ago

You basically described all the advantages of public transit. And in fact fully automated vehicles are actually not that uncommon among public transit systems that operate on fixed guideways (most recently Skyline [or HART] in Honolulu). The only problem with a public transit system that gives you all of these advantages is the expensive infrastructure and operations required. However compared to everyone waiting for the tech to arrive (which may never happen) and then buying and maintaining a very expensive and bulky machine, building and operating a good public transit system using common funds is actually orders of magnitude cheaper, and far more economical.