5 ms·

The idea that 400K units of this is a "big flop" requires some sort of fundamentally broken thinking (that applies to AAPL as well, if they have a similar view)

The idea that 400K units of this is a "big flop" requires some sort of fundamentally broken thinking (that applies to AAPL as well, if they have a similar view), wildly out of touch with reality. The reality distortion field is dead. Perhaps the memo was missed.

luyu_wu 2y ago
A bit curious why you think this. How much do you think the R&D costs were?
- ergonaught 2y ago
  Because 400K units of this kind of product, at this price point, with this lack of “killer app” solving a problem people didn’t know they had, is a phenomenal success. If they expected …that… to sell millions of units straight away, well, as I wrote.
627467 2y ago
Appl is not interest in niche products. they are not in biz to sell 200 products at 400K units each. they are in the biz to sell 20 overpriced products at 30M units/year each.
- swatcoder 2y ago
  Sort of. That's the shape of their portfolio and long-term strategy, for sure, but they clearly didn't target "30M units/year" for the launch of Vision Pro any more so than they've targeted that scale for for AppleTV or the Airport and Time Machine product lines. It was plainly a test of both manufacturing and market. To the GP's point, I think it's hard for anyone on the outsjde to judge whether they hit their marks for it or not right now. It certainly wasn't grossly short, as there's no indication that they overshot manufacturing by an order of magnitude or something, but it certainly could have been disappointing. We really can't guess right now. Good, traditional reporting might be able to surface some insight with real footwork and investigation. Armchair blogspam writing like the article is pointless and is really just clickbait.
- hlfshell 2y ago
  Innovator's Dilemma demonstrated wonderfully right here. If VR is the next big thing, but will take years of niche smaller profit margin products to launch it, established tech companies will struggle to justify the products existence wherein a smaller player could go all in, achieve roughly equivalent results, and be quite content.
  - pjmlp 2y ago
    The next big thing since people were playing DOOM with headsets at conferences back in 1994.
FredPret 2y ago
Apple's sideline product, the Watch, outsells all of Switzerland (at watches only!). They only do huge products.
- Ultimatt 2y ago
  How many Mac Pro's have ever sold? Or the Pro Display XDR that costs more than the Vision Pro... Apple are in the business of generating hype and a ladder of hype and glam around what would otherwise be boxes of electronics. They then sell millions at the bottom end whilst everyone aspires for debt to buy the high end.
fullshark 2y ago
The article says they spent 10 billion developing the Vision pro. If they sell less than a million units and no one is actually using it (so there's no software ecosystem being developed for it) then it's a flop.
- not_your_vase 2y ago
  > 10 billion What an interesting number! The original iPhone is reported to cost only $150M (~$225M today) to develop. Sure, Apple from 2006 is not the same as today's Apple, but I find it still amusing that they try to create a new revolution with throwing money around, instead of a real new idea, like the iPhone was.
  - wyldberry 2y ago
    The expectation and capability of the first iPhone is a minuscule fraction of what's expected of the Vision Pro. The iPhone wasn't a new idea, there were other smart phones before it, but they hit it out of the park with the interface and understanding what customers would want, before they wanted it. The entire computing environment has evolved dramatically since then, as have the expectations of the once scrappy underdog to the second largest company in the world. At some point, AR / VR will eventually become good enough, and it's good that they are investing in it. It forces Meta to innovate and become better as well. I personally hope that it will get to the point that i can go anywhere and take my ideal workspace setup with me and lose little to no productivity.
    - leptons 2y ago
      > understanding what customers would want, before they wanted it. "relentlessly telling customers what they want, regardless of what they might need." The walled garden doesn't appeal to most people, which is one reason why worldwide Apple has a very small market share. Price is another, and paying more for a device I have far less control over never made sense to me. >I personally hope that it will get to the point that i can go anywhere and take my ideal workspace setup with me and lose little to no productivity. My laptop has 3 very portable screens. I don't have to strap anything to my head to be productive. Sure, I'm not going to spread out 3 screens on an airplane, but I'm not typically going to work if I'm on an airplane (YMMV). I'm not sure how you get to be productive living inside a strap-on-bubble even with the passthrough video. It just seems so clumsy. Maybe it will improve, but that's a big maybe and I'm not sure Apple is going to be the one to perfect that experience, especially when their platform is so curated. Where am I going to run my servers and software development stack, on the Vision Pro? No. I still need a laptop to be productive, no matter where I am.
hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
Apple is so huge, with such a large and fervent fanbase, they could literally release the MacBook Wheel per the Onion it would still probably sell a couple hundred thousand units. It's not like they're selling at small volumes at first, i.e. to early adopters who love it and will convince their friends to be later adopters. Early adopters are mostly either returning it or saying it's basically shelfware now.
- fullspectrumdev 2y ago
  You literally cannot buy the AVP outside the American market at this time. So it’s limited as hell in terms of distribution
  - philipwhiuk 2y ago
    But that's because they need super specialised stuff in terms of lens. That's not a defense of the product, it's a criticism.
- Fluorescence 2y ago
  For others who also didn't know this one: https://www.theonion.com/apple-introduces-revolutionary-new-laptop-with-no-keybo-1819594761 https://www.theonion.com/apple-introduces-revolutionary-new-... "It remains to be seen if the Apple Wheel will catch on in the business world where people use computers for actual work instead of just dicking around" resonates for whenever Apple/Meta claim a VR headset is a productivity/business tool. "everything is just a few 100 clicks away"... sounds like Apple's regulatory compliance. Might become mandatory if you want to use side-loading/3rd party app stores.
ffgjgf1 2y ago
Based on some reports that’s way below their estimates and they were forced to cut production even before releasing it in other markets. That’s basically the definition of a “flop”..
hackeraccount 2y ago
I don't think it's really a question of how many units they sell. It's more how quickly those units sell. How many get returned. How much activity is happening on the platform. Apple knows all of those numbers. They also know what the potential improvements are and they probably have a really good idea what improvements would move the needle on the numbers that matter. If Apple kill the AVP it may well look odd from the outside but they'll be well informed.
surgical_fire 2y ago
Funny - To put things in perspective, The Wii U sold about 14M units if I am not terribly mistaken, and is considered a flop so legendary that almost ended Nintendo. Now take in consideration that Nintendo is a fraction of the size of Apple. 400k units is nothing, less than a rounding error for a company the size of Apple. They are not in the business of selling some hundred thousand units of hardware.
- darnfish 2y ago
  Did Wii U’s retail for $3499?
  - surgical_fire 2y ago
    Does it matter?

luyu_wu 2y ago

A bit curious why you think this. How much do you think the R&D costs were?

ergonaught 2y ago
Because 400K units of this kind of product, at this price point, with this lack of “killer app” solving a problem people didn’t know they had, is a phenomenal success. If they expected …that… to sell millions of units straight away, well, as I wrote.

627467 2y ago

Appl is not interest in niche products. they are not in biz to sell 200 products at 400K units each. they are in the biz to sell 20 overpriced products at 30M units/year each.

swatcoder 2y ago
Sort of. That's the shape of their portfolio and long-term strategy, for sure, but they clearly didn't target "30M units/year" for the launch of Vision Pro any more so than they've targeted that scale for for AppleTV or the Airport and Time Machine product lines. It was plainly a test of both manufacturing and market. To the GP's point, I think it's hard for anyone on the outsjde to judge whether they hit their marks for it or not right now. It certainly wasn't grossly short, as there's no indication that they overshot manufacturing by an order of magnitude or something, but it certainly could have been disappointing. We really can't guess right now. Good, traditional reporting might be able to surface some insight with real footwork and investigation. Armchair blogspam writing like the article is pointless and is really just clickbait.
hlfshell 2y ago
Innovator's Dilemma demonstrated wonderfully right here. If VR is the next big thing, but will take years of niche smaller profit margin products to launch it, established tech companies will struggle to justify the products existence wherein a smaller player could go all in, achieve roughly equivalent results, and be quite content.
- pjmlp 2y ago
  The next big thing since people were playing DOOM with headsets at conferences back in 1994.

FredPret 2y ago

Apple's sideline product, the Watch, outsells all of Switzerland (at watches only!). They only do huge products.

Ultimatt 2y ago
How many Mac Pro's have ever sold? Or the Pro Display XDR that costs more than the Vision Pro... Apple are in the business of generating hype and a ladder of hype and glam around what would otherwise be boxes of electronics. They then sell millions at the bottom end whilst everyone aspires for debt to buy the high end.

fullshark 2y ago

The article says they spent 10 billion developing the Vision pro. If they sell less than a million units and no one is actually using it (so there's no software ecosystem being developed for it) then it's a flop.

not_your_vase 2y ago
> 10 billion What an interesting number! The original iPhone is reported to cost only $150M (~$225M today) to develop. Sure, Apple from 2006 is not the same as today's Apple, but I find it still amusing that they try to create a new revolution with throwing money around, instead of a real new idea, like the iPhone was.
- wyldberry 2y ago
  The expectation and capability of the first iPhone is a minuscule fraction of what's expected of the Vision Pro. The iPhone wasn't a new idea, there were other smart phones before it, but they hit it out of the park with the interface and understanding what customers would want, before they wanted it. The entire computing environment has evolved dramatically since then, as have the expectations of the once scrappy underdog to the second largest company in the world. At some point, AR / VR will eventually become good enough, and it's good that they are investing in it. It forces Meta to innovate and become better as well. I personally hope that it will get to the point that i can go anywhere and take my ideal workspace setup with me and lose little to no productivity.
  - leptons 2y ago
    > understanding what customers would want, before they wanted it. "relentlessly telling customers what they want, regardless of what they might need." The walled garden doesn't appeal to most people, which is one reason why worldwide Apple has a very small market share. Price is another, and paying more for a device I have far less control over never made sense to me. >I personally hope that it will get to the point that i can go anywhere and take my ideal workspace setup with me and lose little to no productivity. My laptop has 3 very portable screens. I don't have to strap anything to my head to be productive. Sure, I'm not going to spread out 3 screens on an airplane, but I'm not typically going to work if I'm on an airplane (YMMV). I'm not sure how you get to be productive living inside a strap-on-bubble even with the passthrough video. It just seems so clumsy. Maybe it will improve, but that's a big maybe and I'm not sure Apple is going to be the one to perfect that experience, especially when their platform is so curated. Where am I going to run my servers and software development stack, on the Vision Pro? No. I still need a laptop to be productive, no matter where I am.

hn_throwaway_99 2y ago

Apple is so huge, with such a large and fervent fanbase, they could literally release the MacBook Wheel per the Onion it would still probably sell a couple hundred thousand units. It's not like they're selling at small volumes at first, i.e. to early adopters who love it and will convince their friends to be later adopters. Early adopters are mostly either returning it or saying it's basically shelfware now.

fullspectrumdev 2y ago
You literally cannot buy the AVP outside the American market at this time. So it’s limited as hell in terms of distribution
- philipwhiuk 2y ago
  But that's because they need super specialised stuff in terms of lens. That's not a defense of the product, it's a criticism.
Fluorescence 2y ago
For others who also didn't know this one: https://www.theonion.com/apple-introduces-revolutionary-new-laptop-with-no-keybo-1819594761 https://www.theonion.com/apple-introduces-revolutionary-new-... "It remains to be seen if the Apple Wheel will catch on in the business world where people use computers for actual work instead of just dicking around" resonates for whenever Apple/Meta claim a VR headset is a productivity/business tool. "everything is just a few 100 clicks away"... sounds like Apple's regulatory compliance. Might become mandatory if you want to use side-loading/3rd party app stores.

ffgjgf1 2y ago

Based on some reports that’s way below their estimates and they were forced to cut production even before releasing it in other markets. That’s basically the definition of a “flop”..

hackeraccount 2y ago

I don't think it's really a question of how many units they sell. It's more how quickly those units sell. How many get returned. How much activity is happening on the platform. Apple knows all of those numbers. They also know what the potential improvements are and they probably have a really good idea what improvements would move the needle on the numbers that matter. If Apple kill the AVP it may well look odd from the outside but they'll be well informed.

surgical_fire 2y ago

Funny - To put things in perspective, The Wii U sold about 14M units if I am not terribly mistaken, and is considered a flop so legendary that almost ended Nintendo. Now take in consideration that Nintendo is a fraction of the size of Apple. 400k units is nothing, less than a rounding error for a company the size of Apple. They are not in the business of selling some hundred thousand units of hardware.

darnfish 2y ago
Did Wii U’s retail for $3499?
- surgical_fire 2y ago
  Does it matter?