3 ms·

> Home prices have dropped 18% from the pandemic highs seen in May 2022, the most among the 50 largest US metro areas, Redfin data show. Even so, the city ranks

> Home prices have dropped 18% from the pandemic highs seen in May 2022, the most among the 50 largest US metro areas, Redfin data show. Even so, the city ranks as one of the least affordable housing markets. One of the least affordable housing markets has prices drop 18%? That means demand is high and construction is outpacing. That's a huge positive. Austin wasn't for me, but it was clearly booming and it seems it still is. In comparison, on the same metrics zero-construction SF is down 20%. Look for yourself: - https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/10221/austin-tx/ - https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/ https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20330/san-francisco-ca/ Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
> Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same. This is an underappreciated point. As you say, the price in housing that sets the supply-and-demand curve is the monthly payment, not the purchase price. (Except for those who can pay cash, or those who are buying as an investment.)
w10-1 3y ago
Investors and owner-occupiers buy for different reasons. Investors are much more sensitive to rates and outlooks. One way to measure investor vs owner impact on prices is speed of sale. While prices are down 3% in SF, house get pending offers in 18 days on average -- much faster than one might expect for owner-occupiers. I'd guess that unless houses are taking 45 days to sell, it's probably an investor-driven market.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago

> Though actually, now that I said all that I decided to see how much interest rates affect this and it seems that it explains a significant chunk if you try to keep the monthly payment the same. This is an underappreciated point. As you say, the price in housing that sets the supply-and-demand curve is the monthly payment, not the purchase price. (Except for those who can pay cash, or those who are buying as an investment.)

w10-1 3y ago

Investors and owner-occupiers buy for different reasons. Investors are much more sensitive to rates and outlooks. One way to measure investor vs owner impact on prices is speed of sale. While prices are down 3% in SF, house get pending offers in 18 days on average -- much faster than one might expect for owner-occupiers. I'd guess that unless houses are taking 45 days to sell, it's probably an investor-driven market.