I think you’re exactly right. In philosophy this Bayesian thinking is called “verisimilitude”, or to quote Stephen Colbert, “truthiness”. Hume and Wittgenstein

I think you’re exactly right. In philosophy this Bayesian thinking is called “verisimilitude”, or to quote Stephen Colbert, “truthiness”. Hume and Wittgenstein did a good job in their own ways of elucidating why judgements cannot stem only from facts. The “is ought problem” and “picture theory of language” are approachable places to google on the matter. But we make judgements all day and it does seem like there are better judgements than others. We don’t have easy answers for what is right, wrong, beautiful, ugly, redeemable, or important. But these unscientific concerns are the most important aspects of anyone’s life, and philosophers can provide a lot of insight.