6 ms·

I shudder to think of what's going to happen to my 401k when this turns into a tit for tat game and China bans Apple products.

MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago
Thinking of our 401ks only is what got us into this mess with China in the first place.
- anononaut 3y ago
  Is it? I would put citizen privacy and leveling the playing field above outright min/maxing share prices or GDP. Convince me.
  - echelon 3y ago
    We thought China would join the WTO and "Westernize" themselves. They didn't, and it's clear they're trying to come out on top. That's why the West is switching to full-on contagion mode. The pandemic was the trigger event that gave us the activation energy to accept supply chain disruptions and ease into the pain of decoupling. It'll go much faster now. The de-China-fication is going to accelerate rapidly. The game is now near-shore, friend-shore. Mexico is now the biggest trade partner of the US, and it's still only ramping up. The rail and truck corridors are growing significantly and we're about to pour in huge infrastructure investments.
    - Hock88sdx 3y ago
      It is pretty much game over for America now. Huawei has 2nm chip and will mass produce next year Q1. China EVs already so far ahead that Tesla had to mass layoff and price drop. Chinese drones are so numerous, even American Naval Admiral scared to engage Chinese. There are simply no simulation path of American stayimg ahead in next 100 years. Unlike Japanese, Chinese wont do Japanese kowtow. The best way forward is American get their budget in order. Once Chinese achieve full domestic consumption game over for America. Now Chinese has wodld biggest auto market 30m, bigger than USA and EU combined. Imagine that happen to planes, everyday consumptions. China also massive purchasing and delivering physical gold to Shanghai. Therr is no way USD and American economy able to sustain itself when Chinese outcompete, outspy, out militarise America. If you look at Chinese space station vs American ISS, you will know who will become star trek first. Even Chinese desert turning green will likely trigger dust bowl in America in the next 30 years. Game over America.
  - rayiner 3y ago
    I think OP is making the same point. We got in bed with China for the cheap Chinese goods and short term profits and it bit us in the ass.
    - raydev 3y ago
      > We got in bed with China for the cheap Chinese goods and short term profits and it bit us in the ass What problems have Americans faced because of this relationship?
  - flandish 3y ago
    Before tech privacy was a large concern, the capitalist formula was indeed to consider cost of labor (china) and its relation to roi/share prices. It still is because that’s how corporations work: “how will x affect my bottom line?” It’s just now we have layers of concern that involve privacy. In a world with no regulation, corps would be sharing a lot more and doing a lot worse.
  - BizarroLand 3y ago
    Millions of Americans are relying on the savvy actions of a couple tens of thousand investment brokers to ensure that when they retire they will be able to live closely to the manner in which they have been accustomed. We have so defiled the American dream that if psychological or ecological terrorism on a scale large enough to alter the course of life on planet isn't allowed to continue unabated and increase its cataclysmically planetary destructive activities over time then all of our grandparents will starve to death homeless in a ditch somewhere and possibly us along with them.
    - johnea 3y ago
      While I certainly agree capitalism's excesses have led to the planets ruination, I would disagree that it's due to following "the american dream". (I always hated that phrase actually, it's much mor eimportant to face "reality" than to "dream") Elon and Bozo being worth multi-multi-billions has nothing to do with the pursuits of millions of people. The crime I would put on the millions is being intentionally oblivious to it all. For example, thinking that people communicating on a proprietary corporate s/w platform constitutes a "community", or a "friend". This especially includes the gun porn "community" who think rolling around on the ground in their cammys is their version of "the dream". An extreem example of that would be: https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-04-26/far-right-extremism-spreads-among-young-people-in-central-and-eastern-europe.html https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-04-26/far-righ...
aardvarkr 3y ago
And put 5 million jobs at risk? Banning Apple products would have wide repercussions to the Chinese economy and would directly strengthen its rivals like India.
- talldayo 3y ago
  Sorta feels like that's the direction things are headed anyways. China wants to bolster their own tech market and make themselves look strong without any foreign reliance. If you give Apple a choice between China or the rest of the world, they're not going to pick China for manufacturing favors anymore. It's probably not China's preferred option, but whether they like it or not there's going to come a point where business relationships reach a tipping point and Apple will have to pick sides.
  - tivert 3y ago
    > If you give Apple a choice between China or the rest of the world, they're not going to pick China for manufacturing favors anymore. > It's probably not China's preferred option, but whether they like it or not there's going to come a point where business relationships reach a tipping point and Apple will have to pick sides. If you make Apple choose, they're probably going to get fucked, because (at this point) they can't not pick China: they're too invested and too dependent. I read a long-form article maybe a year ago that talked about how Apple's efforts to reduce their dependence on China haven't been very effective. But personally, I think forcing them to choose would be the right call. Tanking their share price and forcing them to burn their savings trying to save the company would send a strong message.
    - mullingitover 3y ago
      They could burn 200% of their savings and not make a dent: there would be no trying to save the company, most likely they'd just close up shop. For example, here's Tim Cook talking about the depth of China's labor pool in tooling engineers[1]. Basically saying that in the US, as an example, you could gather all the tooling engineers in the country and maybe fill a room. In China you could fill multiple football fields. For manufacturers, decoupling from that talent pool would take a multi-generation government-backed effort to train a minimal amount of domestic labor. It's not going to happen in a couple election cycles. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/123esqi/tim_cook_on_chinese_labour_costs/ https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/123esqi/...
deleted 3y ago
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GeoAtreides 3y ago
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sircastor 3y ago
Both China and the US are walking on a Cliff's edge here. Apple being locked out of China would be very damaging to the company sure, but Apple (and other major Electronics OEMs) are already moving rapidly to exit China as a manufacturer. China can only pull a few threads at a time, or it risks its economy collapsing - and just as its middle class is starting to settle in.
- asadotzler 3y ago
  You're wrong. Apple is actually increasing reliance on China. Their India push is failing and they've increased Chinese company suppliers in the last year by about 10%.
Marsymars 3y ago
Because your Apple is over-represented in your 401k or because of the knock-off effects on the world economy? The first is fairly easy to fix, the latter is really a bigger problem than your 401k anyway.
- mullingitover 3y ago
  The knock-on effects. The market would take this about as well as it'd take NASA announcing that they have some really bad news about 99942 Apophis.
  - Marsymars 3y ago
    Yeah, but the actual cause of the problems to retirees wouldn't be "the market", it would be the actual harm to the global economy. At a macro level a 401k is a small slice of the economic pie, and their values are just a reflection of the economy at large - if your 401k value tank, it's either because the economy is also tanking or because your 401k's portion of the total pie is shrinking.
beeboobaa3 3y ago
[flagged]
deleted 3y ago
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MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago

Thinking of our 401ks only is what got us into this mess with China in the first place.

anononaut 3y ago
Is it? I would put citizen privacy and leveling the playing field above outright min/maxing share prices or GDP. Convince me.
- echelon 3y ago
  We thought China would join the WTO and "Westernize" themselves. They didn't, and it's clear they're trying to come out on top. That's why the West is switching to full-on contagion mode. The pandemic was the trigger event that gave us the activation energy to accept supply chain disruptions and ease into the pain of decoupling. It'll go much faster now. The de-China-fication is going to accelerate rapidly. The game is now near-shore, friend-shore. Mexico is now the biggest trade partner of the US, and it's still only ramping up. The rail and truck corridors are growing significantly and we're about to pour in huge infrastructure investments.
  - Hock88sdx 3y ago
    It is pretty much game over for America now. Huawei has 2nm chip and will mass produce next year Q1. China EVs already so far ahead that Tesla had to mass layoff and price drop. Chinese drones are so numerous, even American Naval Admiral scared to engage Chinese. There are simply no simulation path of American stayimg ahead in next 100 years. Unlike Japanese, Chinese wont do Japanese kowtow. The best way forward is American get their budget in order. Once Chinese achieve full domestic consumption game over for America. Now Chinese has wodld biggest auto market 30m, bigger than USA and EU combined. Imagine that happen to planes, everyday consumptions. China also massive purchasing and delivering physical gold to Shanghai. Therr is no way USD and American economy able to sustain itself when Chinese outcompete, outspy, out militarise America. If you look at Chinese space station vs American ISS, you will know who will become star trek first. Even Chinese desert turning green will likely trigger dust bowl in America in the next 30 years. Game over America.
- rayiner 3y ago
  I think OP is making the same point. We got in bed with China for the cheap Chinese goods and short term profits and it bit us in the ass.
  - raydev 3y ago
    > We got in bed with China for the cheap Chinese goods and short term profits and it bit us in the ass What problems have Americans faced because of this relationship?
- flandish 3y ago
  Before tech privacy was a large concern, the capitalist formula was indeed to consider cost of labor (china) and its relation to roi/share prices. It still is because that’s how corporations work: “how will x affect my bottom line?” It’s just now we have layers of concern that involve privacy. In a world with no regulation, corps would be sharing a lot more and doing a lot worse.
- BizarroLand 3y ago
  Millions of Americans are relying on the savvy actions of a couple tens of thousand investment brokers to ensure that when they retire they will be able to live closely to the manner in which they have been accustomed. We have so defiled the American dream that if psychological or ecological terrorism on a scale large enough to alter the course of life on planet isn't allowed to continue unabated and increase its cataclysmically planetary destructive activities over time then all of our grandparents will starve to death homeless in a ditch somewhere and possibly us along with them.
  - johnea 3y ago
    While I certainly agree capitalism's excesses have led to the planets ruination, I would disagree that it's due to following "the american dream". (I always hated that phrase actually, it's much mor eimportant to face "reality" than to "dream") Elon and Bozo being worth multi-multi-billions has nothing to do with the pursuits of millions of people. The crime I would put on the millions is being intentionally oblivious to it all. For example, thinking that people communicating on a proprietary corporate s/w platform constitutes a "community", or a "friend". This especially includes the gun porn "community" who think rolling around on the ground in their cammys is their version of "the dream". An extreem example of that would be: https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-04-26/far-right-extremism-spreads-among-young-people-in-central-and-eastern-europe.html https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-04-26/far-righ...

aardvarkr 3y ago

And put 5 million jobs at risk? Banning Apple products would have wide repercussions to the Chinese economy and would directly strengthen its rivals like India.

talldayo 3y ago
Sorta feels like that's the direction things are headed anyways. China wants to bolster their own tech market and make themselves look strong without any foreign reliance. If you give Apple a choice between China or the rest of the world, they're not going to pick China for manufacturing favors anymore. It's probably not China's preferred option, but whether they like it or not there's going to come a point where business relationships reach a tipping point and Apple will have to pick sides.
- tivert 3y ago
  > If you give Apple a choice between China or the rest of the world, they're not going to pick China for manufacturing favors anymore. > It's probably not China's preferred option, but whether they like it or not there's going to come a point where business relationships reach a tipping point and Apple will have to pick sides. If you make Apple choose, they're probably going to get fucked, because (at this point) they can't not pick China: they're too invested and too dependent. I read a long-form article maybe a year ago that talked about how Apple's efforts to reduce their dependence on China haven't been very effective. But personally, I think forcing them to choose would be the right call. Tanking their share price and forcing them to burn their savings trying to save the company would send a strong message.
  - mullingitover 3y ago
    They could burn 200% of their savings and not make a dent: there would be no trying to save the company, most likely they'd just close up shop. For example, here's Tim Cook talking about the depth of China's labor pool in tooling engineers[1]. Basically saying that in the US, as an example, you could gather all the tooling engineers in the country and maybe fill a room. In China you could fill multiple football fields. For manufacturers, decoupling from that talent pool would take a multi-generation government-backed effort to train a minimal amount of domestic labor. It's not going to happen in a couple election cycles. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/123esqi/tim_cook_on_chinese_labour_costs/ https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/123esqi/...

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

GeoAtreides 3y ago

[deleted]

sircastor 3y ago

Both China and the US are walking on a Cliff's edge here. Apple being locked out of China would be very damaging to the company sure, but Apple (and other major Electronics OEMs) are already moving rapidly to exit China as a manufacturer. China can only pull a few threads at a time, or it risks its economy collapsing - and just as its middle class is starting to settle in.

asadotzler 3y ago
You're wrong. Apple is actually increasing reliance on China. Their India push is failing and they've increased Chinese company suppliers in the last year by about 10%.

Marsymars 3y ago

Because your Apple is over-represented in your 401k or because of the knock-off effects on the world economy? The first is fairly easy to fix, the latter is really a bigger problem than your 401k anyway.

mullingitover 3y ago
The knock-on effects. The market would take this about as well as it'd take NASA announcing that they have some really bad news about 99942 Apophis.
- Marsymars 3y ago
  Yeah, but the actual cause of the problems to retirees wouldn't be "the market", it would be the actual harm to the global economy. At a macro level a 401k is a small slice of the economic pie, and their values are just a reflection of the economy at large - if your 401k value tank, it's either because the economy is also tanking or because your 401k's portion of the total pie is shrinking.

beeboobaa3 3y ago

[flagged]

deleted 3y ago

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