The doomsday question has two components: the mean and the error bars. Most people probably agree that a reasonable date for likely achieving AGI is maybe 30-50

The doomsday question has two components: the mean and the error bars. Most people probably agree that a reasonable date for likely achieving AGI is maybe 30-50 years from now. But because we don't know what we don't know, the error bars are so wide that they encompass tomorrow (we could be one small generalization trick away!), and that's the danger.