5 ms·

Birthrate decline due to increased wealth and social status is not inevitable. See Sweden.[1] However, as the article said, there are issues around the uncerta

by kiba 3y ago

Birthrate decline due to increased wealth and social status is not inevitable. See Sweden.[1] However, as the article said, there are issues around the uncertainty of the future and economic issues that's contributing to depressed fertility rate. We should take of that. It is unclear if taking care of these problems will lead to income-fertility relationship that was shown in the Swedish population. 1. https://www.niussp.org/fertility-and-reproduction/income-and-fertility-a-positive-relationship/ https://www.niussp.org/fertility-and-reproduction/income-and...

fooker 3y ago
Sweden has accomplished this with unfettered immigration, which they seem to be doing a 180 on right now. Will be interesting to see how it works out. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/daa97aba-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/daa97aba-en#:~:text=The%20new%20government%2C%20which%20took,to%20reduce%20immigration%20to%20Sweden https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/daa97aba-en/index.html?i....
- kiba 3y ago
  Higher income is correlated with higher fertility rate in Sweden. Presumably, immigrants are more likely to be poorer.
- sarimkx 3y ago
  Unfettered or not, immigration is inevitable for the west. Italy and Poland were really tough on illegal immigration but gave out the highest amount of work VISAs. European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson in 2024 said the European Union “needs a million migrants a year”.
  - tivert 3y ago
    > Unfettered or not, immigration is inevitable for the west. That assumes birthrates elsewhere are high enough to sustain that, but they're declining everywhere. Immigration is basically just exporting the low birthrate problem to someplace less equipped to deal with it (which is par for the course for rich, western countries). I expect we'll start to see emigration controls in the not too distant future.
    - sarimkx 3y ago
      Yes I agree, birth rates are down everywhere. Interestingly they are rapidly declining in countries where most of these legal migrants come from. I do not agree with emigration controls. At least not in the next 50 years!
    - fooker 3y ago
      >someplace less equipped to deal with it I think China's approach would become the blueprint for third world countries eventually dealing with this. Unfortunately China doesn't seem to have an approach yet, other than doubling down on more and more authoritarian measures to lock down the economy.
      - tivert 3y ago
        > Unfortunately China doesn't seem to have an approach yet, other than doubling down on more and more authoritarian measures to lock down the economy. IIRC, they've only tried carrots so far, which hasn't worked. My bet is they'll turn to sticks, sooner rather than later, and have a lot of experience with them due to the one child policy. I wouldn't be surprised if they start to fine the childless and/or limit childless women's advancement opportunities at work.
  - amarcheschi 3y ago
    Italy has been really though on immigration only in words, it is kafkaesque but detention camps in Northern Africa were made under a center left government by Marco Minniti in 2017. Now that we have a center right to right government (or maybe far right, I don't know how to classify people who refuse to repude fascism and who are in parties that are the direct descendants of the far right parties in the 80/90s) their ideas of a sea blockade fell through (well, who would have expected that). At the same time, government is - and the right parties were, when they weren't in charge - pushing against the ngos such as open arms, while ngos rescue only ~5-10% of the immigrants, while the rest is saved by the Italian coast guard. The idea of a pull factor isn't true as well [1] It's a shit show, at the end we're still in "need" of slave labour to work in tomato fields and to do unskilled jobs because almost no Italian would do them [1] https://pagellapolitica.it/articoli/meloni-piantedosi-pull-factor-ong https://pagellapolitica.it/articoli/meloni-piantedosi-pull-f...
TulliusCicero 3y ago
Sweden is still below replacement rate, though. I think the reality is that having kids is still expensive, and lacking cultural pressure, people look at the utilitarian aspects more when considering whether to have kids. It's obviously far from the only factor, but compromising standard of living or retirement savings or what have you does factor in.
- kiba 3y ago
  Above a certain level of income, fertility rate is at or above replacement rate. Elsewhere, the relationship is inverse. Earning more decreases fertility rate, such as in the US.

by kiba 3y ago

fooker 3y ago

Sweden has accomplished this with unfettered immigration, which they seem to be doing a 180 on right now. Will be interesting to see how it works out. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/daa97aba-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/daa97aba-en#:~:text=The%20new%20government%2C%20which%20took,to%20reduce%20immigration%20to%20Sweden https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/daa97aba-en/index.html?i....

kiba 3y ago
Higher income is correlated with higher fertility rate in Sweden. Presumably, immigrants are more likely to be poorer.
sarimkx 3y ago
Unfettered or not, immigration is inevitable for the west. Italy and Poland were really tough on illegal immigration but gave out the highest amount of work VISAs. European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson in 2024 said the European Union “needs a million migrants a year”.
- tivert 3y ago
  > Unfettered or not, immigration is inevitable for the west. That assumes birthrates elsewhere are high enough to sustain that, but they're declining everywhere. Immigration is basically just exporting the low birthrate problem to someplace less equipped to deal with it (which is par for the course for rich, western countries). I expect we'll start to see emigration controls in the not too distant future.
  - sarimkx 3y ago
    Yes I agree, birth rates are down everywhere. Interestingly they are rapidly declining in countries where most of these legal migrants come from. I do not agree with emigration controls. At least not in the next 50 years!
  - fooker 3y ago
    >someplace less equipped to deal with it I think China's approach would become the blueprint for third world countries eventually dealing with this. Unfortunately China doesn't seem to have an approach yet, other than doubling down on more and more authoritarian measures to lock down the economy.
    - tivert 3y ago
      > Unfortunately China doesn't seem to have an approach yet, other than doubling down on more and more authoritarian measures to lock down the economy. IIRC, they've only tried carrots so far, which hasn't worked. My bet is they'll turn to sticks, sooner rather than later, and have a lot of experience with them due to the one child policy. I wouldn't be surprised if they start to fine the childless and/or limit childless women's advancement opportunities at work.
- amarcheschi 3y ago
  Italy has been really though on immigration only in words, it is kafkaesque but detention camps in Northern Africa were made under a center left government by Marco Minniti in 2017. Now that we have a center right to right government (or maybe far right, I don't know how to classify people who refuse to repude fascism and who are in parties that are the direct descendants of the far right parties in the 80/90s) their ideas of a sea blockade fell through (well, who would have expected that). At the same time, government is - and the right parties were, when they weren't in charge - pushing against the ngos such as open arms, while ngos rescue only ~5-10% of the immigrants, while the rest is saved by the Italian coast guard. The idea of a pull factor isn't true as well [1] It's a shit show, at the end we're still in "need" of slave labour to work in tomato fields and to do unskilled jobs because almost no Italian would do them [1] https://pagellapolitica.it/articoli/meloni-piantedosi-pull-factor-ong https://pagellapolitica.it/articoli/meloni-piantedosi-pull-f...

TulliusCicero 3y ago

Sweden is still below replacement rate, though. I think the reality is that having kids is still expensive, and lacking cultural pressure, people look at the utilitarian aspects more when considering whether to have kids. It's obviously far from the only factor, but compromising standard of living or retirement savings or what have you does factor in.

kiba 3y ago
Above a certain level of income, fertility rate is at or above replacement rate. Elsewhere, the relationship is inverse. Earning more decreases fertility rate, such as in the US.