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We all agree that there may be dragons. The “doomsday” question is whether we’re even remotely close to a dragon’s lair such that we should imminently worry abo
by dcow 3y ago
We all agree that there may be dragons. The “doomsday” question is whether we’re even remotely close to a dragon’s lair such that we should imminently worry about waking the dragon—risking it burning down the village. To each their own until we find dragon tracks and charred forests.
- naasking 3y agoThe doomsday question has two components: the mean and the error bars. Most people probably agree that a reasonable date for likely achieving AGI is maybe 30-50 years from now. But because we don't know what we don't know, the error bars are so wide that they encompass tomorrow (we could be one small generalization trick away!), and that's the danger.