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This seems just completely wrong. The trend for drones is that features and capabilities are increasing and costs are decreasing because they're based on cheap

This seems just completely wrong. The trend for drones is that features and capabilities are increasing and costs are decreasing because they're based on cheap software and cheap consumer hardware. The trend for unguided mortar rounds or artillery shells is that they're as cheap as they're ever likely to be at thousands of dollars a round, plus the cost of the gun and its replacement barrels and crew. (guided artillery shells or missiles are so expensive they're a separate conversation) If these small drones provide capabilities that are, as your comment implies, not new but they do it with a cost effectiveness that blows away anything that came before, that's a pretty big deal.

sandworm101 3y ago
Capabilities are not the same thing as effects. A drone represents different capabilities at different price points, but the net result observed on the battlefield are not all that different that past infantry engagements. If enemy infantry knows your position, they can today reach out and kill you at similar ranges as they did in wars past. The how has changed, not the what.
- deleted 3y ago
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kube-system 3y ago
Aren't these "cheap" drones tens to hundreds of thousands each? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136
- tomjakubowski 3y ago
  in Ukraine the FPV infantry killers are modified hobbyist drones, in the ~$500 range the economist: https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/cheap-racing-drones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology... https://archive.is/nJYJ0 https://archive.is/nJYJ0
- 0x457 3y ago
  There are also modified commercial drones that just drop explosives, and that is what is mentioned here. Those drones drop their payload and may return to reload if not shutdown. Those drones aren't "hundreds of thousands each", but around $500 each. As for the drone you linked - we don't know how much it cost Russian to produce Geran-2, but definitely less than you imagine.
- gantron 3y ago
  Even this is almost certainly an underestimate. Open source intelligence that just the bill of materials for a Shahed is more than the tens of thousands previously estimated. These are probably more on the order of ~$400k [0] [0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2024/02/07/375000the-sticker-price-for-an-iranian-shahed-drone/?sh=2ad6ebba56d6 https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2024/02/07/375000the...
- 83 3y ago
  This comment thread is about cheap drones hunting down individuals. They are not using Shahed for that. You can easily build a small drone capable of carrying a grenade for under $300.

sandworm101 3y ago

Capabilities are not the same thing as effects. A drone represents different capabilities at different price points, but the net result observed on the battlefield are not all that different that past infantry engagements. If enemy infantry knows your position, they can today reach out and kill you at similar ranges as they did in wars past. The how has changed, not the what.

deleted 3y ago
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kube-system 3y ago

Aren't these "cheap" drones tens to hundreds of thousands each? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136

tomjakubowski 3y ago
in Ukraine the FPV infantry killers are modified hobbyist drones, in the ~$500 range the economist: https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/cheap-racing-drones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology... https://archive.is/nJYJ0 https://archive.is/nJYJ0
0x457 3y ago
There are also modified commercial drones that just drop explosives, and that is what is mentioned here. Those drones drop their payload and may return to reload if not shutdown. Those drones aren't "hundreds of thousands each", but around $500 each. As for the drone you linked - we don't know how much it cost Russian to produce Geran-2, but definitely less than you imagine.
gantron 3y ago
Even this is almost certainly an underestimate. Open source intelligence that just the bill of materials for a Shahed is more than the tens of thousands previously estimated. These are probably more on the order of ~$400k [0] [0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2024/02/07/375000the-sticker-price-for-an-iranian-shahed-drone/?sh=2ad6ebba56d6 https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2024/02/07/375000the...
83 3y ago
This comment thread is about cheap drones hunting down individuals. They are not using Shahed for that. You can easily build a small drone capable of carrying a grenade for under $300.