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That decline is most likely inaccurate due to people not reporting crime because they know the police will do nothing, or due to changing definitions of crime.

That decline is most likely inaccurate due to people not reporting crime because they know the police will do nothing, or due to changing definitions of crime. I remember some news stories on HN about a California city where a man filmed large-scale exchange of stolen goods (laptops, cell phones, etc.), the police did nothing, and a local news outlet interviewed city hall and found that city hall explicitly instructed the police to do nothing. Another anecdote on HN was a story about how breaking into a vehicle and stealing things was only illegal if the vehicle's doors were locked. If the thief was caught on camera checking the doors, that was considered proof that the doors were locked. So thieves figured out that there was on proof the doors were locked if they simple broke the glass without even trying the door to see if it was locked.

xrd 2y ago
I'm having a hard time squaring your comments with my own anecdotes. On the one hand, it clearly seems like NYC is safer than the NYC of the 80s. I know there are a lot of stories that would support or deny that assertion. And, it feels like there are perverse incentives to over-report crime when it is convenient. I recall reading Twitter posts during the "crime surge" of the pandemic where the police department indicated they were too overwhelmed by a car jacking to deal with other crimes, so be careful out there! I really wish there was someone reporting on exactly what you have called out, that the reporting has probably changed significantly, and that deserves scrutiny.
FireBeyond 2y ago
Will try to cut long story into something brief, to this. Phone stolen. Go through usual steps. A few weeks later, someone contacts me, "hey, I was sold what seems to be your phone on eBay..." (I had put a message on it). "I was wondering if you'd got a replacement, and be willing to unlock the phone. I just bought it..". Points for gumption, I guess. I said "How do I know you weren't the thief..." He reached out to the seller, who initially refused to exchange the phone. "I am in contact with the legit owner of the phone, and will give him your info so he can pass on to the police". Seller exchanged phone. This guy then gave me the info and listing anyway. My phone. IMEI had two digits transposed. Looked at the guys other listings, and it was a warehouse of stolen goods, effectively: hundreds of Macs and other laptops, mostly "no accessories, no charger", hundreds of phones, "no cables, locked", and so on. All the phones had invalid IMEIs unless you un-transposed the same two digits that were transposed in mine (plausible deniability I guess? You search for IMEI, no hits. But it looks legit because he's willing to share it, and can say 'oops, typo'). Go to the police. They were supremely uninterested. "Well, he probably wasn't the guy who actually stole your phone". I pointed out that I thought it was still a crime to sell stolen goods, even if you didn't sell them, and if you're selling dozens or more near current MBPs for $300ish "without any accessories, may be locked", then what is your explanation? Still didn't care. I did my part, short of going to the home nearby and pouring water in his gas tank, which was tempting.
jampekka 2y ago
Crime is often studied using victimization surveys, e.g. polling how many people consider having been a victim of a crime last year. Exactly to control for differences in law enforcement and crime reporting over time and location. Violent crime and property crime victimizations both dropped over 70% between 1993 and 2022. Your view of the situation doesn't reflect the reality. This is the case for most Americans: people think crime has increased, even though it has plummeted. Propaganda works. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-... Edit: fixed some wrong calculations.

xrd 2y ago

I'm having a hard time squaring your comments with my own anecdotes. On the one hand, it clearly seems like NYC is safer than the NYC of the 80s. I know there are a lot of stories that would support or deny that assertion. And, it feels like there are perverse incentives to over-report crime when it is convenient. I recall reading Twitter posts during the "crime surge" of the pandemic where the police department indicated they were too overwhelmed by a car jacking to deal with other crimes, so be careful out there! I really wish there was someone reporting on exactly what you have called out, that the reporting has probably changed significantly, and that deserves scrutiny.

FireBeyond 2y ago

Will try to cut long story into something brief, to this. Phone stolen. Go through usual steps. A few weeks later, someone contacts me, "hey, I was sold what seems to be your phone on eBay..." (I had put a message on it). "I was wondering if you'd got a replacement, and be willing to unlock the phone. I just bought it..". Points for gumption, I guess. I said "How do I know you weren't the thief..." He reached out to the seller, who initially refused to exchange the phone. "I am in contact with the legit owner of the phone, and will give him your info so he can pass on to the police". Seller exchanged phone. This guy then gave me the info and listing anyway. My phone. IMEI had two digits transposed. Looked at the guys other listings, and it was a warehouse of stolen goods, effectively: hundreds of Macs and other laptops, mostly "no accessories, no charger", hundreds of phones, "no cables, locked", and so on. All the phones had invalid IMEIs unless you un-transposed the same two digits that were transposed in mine (plausible deniability I guess? You search for IMEI, no hits. But it looks legit because he's willing to share it, and can say 'oops, typo'). Go to the police. They were supremely uninterested. "Well, he probably wasn't the guy who actually stole your phone". I pointed out that I thought it was still a crime to sell stolen goods, even if you didn't sell them, and if you're selling dozens or more near current MBPs for $300ish "without any accessories, may be locked", then what is your explanation? Still didn't care. I did my part, short of going to the home nearby and pouring water in his gas tank, which was tempting.

jampekka 2y ago

Crime is often studied using victimization surveys, e.g. polling how many people consider having been a victim of a crime last year. Exactly to control for differences in law enforcement and crime reporting over time and location. Violent crime and property crime victimizations both dropped over 70% between 1993 and 2022. Your view of the situation doesn't reflect the reality. This is the case for most Americans: people think crime has increased, even though it has plummeted. Propaganda works. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-... Edit: fixed some wrong calculations.