4 ms·

Is this worse than humans? (edit) I see that the article included that FSD is 5x safer than humans, which may be valid. The article then said : "However, the

Is this worse than humans? (edit) I see that the article included that FSD is 5x safer than humans, which may be valid. The article then said : "However, the only reason it is safer than the US average is that it is supervised by drivers who ideally pay extra attention when using FSD." I am positive that they had zero data to back that assertion.

AlexandrB 2y ago
Historically these kinds of assertions have been quite misleading. If FSD is mostly used on highways and other "low complexity" environments and then you compare that to human collision rates in all environments, of course FSD will be "safer". Especially if you're measuring collisions/mile vs collisions/hour. Then there are other confounding factors like how Teslas are: * Generally newer than average. * Generally owned by more affluent drivers than average. * Probably used predominantly in urban areas instead of rural ones (to be clear this might unfairly tilt the stats against Tesla thanks to the highway thing). I'm not sure I've seen a good "apples to apples" comparison on this that corrects for these confounding factors.
deely3 2y ago
Do you agree that without "autopilot" this incident would not have happened?
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  I don't think there's any way of knowing that for sure. People look at their phones while driving with and without autopilot.
  - deely3 2y ago
    What about this current incident? In your opinion?
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      Barring a time machine, we've very little way to know when it comes to one specific incident. Again, people distracted by their cell phones kill people on a very regular basis in vehicles without autopilot. If we had better aggregate stats we could compute the statistical likelihood of it, but this stuff isn't tracked anywhere near as closely or completely as, say, aircraft accidents. I don't trust Tesla's self-reported cherry-picked stats.
  - zardo 2y ago
    People glance at diatractions, aware that they are responsible for driving their car. Believing that your car can drive itself is something new.
ceejayoz 2y ago
Tesla's using statistical sleight of hand with that stat; FSD can only be engaged in certain scenarios, and they're inherently newer vehicles than the national average. Comparing Teslas on the highway in California against 20 year old beaters in snowstorms in New England is... not reasonable. It's also entirely self-reported, which given that they've knowingly lied about range, is itself a bit concerning... https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-batteries-range/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-ba...
SoftTalker 2y ago
The question is irrelevant when it comes to liability and responsibility.

AlexandrB 2y ago

Historically these kinds of assertions have been quite misleading. If FSD is mostly used on highways and other "low complexity" environments and then you compare that to human collision rates in all environments, of course FSD will be "safer". Especially if you're measuring collisions/mile vs collisions/hour. Then there are other confounding factors like how Teslas are: * Generally newer than average. * Generally owned by more affluent drivers than average. * Probably used predominantly in urban areas instead of rural ones (to be clear this might unfairly tilt the stats against Tesla thanks to the highway thing). I'm not sure I've seen a good "apples to apples" comparison on this that corrects for these confounding factors.

deely3 2y ago

Do you agree that without "autopilot" this incident would not have happened?

ceejayoz 2y ago
I don't think there's any way of knowing that for sure. People look at their phones while driving with and without autopilot.
- deely3 2y ago
  What about this current incident? In your opinion?
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    Barring a time machine, we've very little way to know when it comes to one specific incident. Again, people distracted by their cell phones kill people on a very regular basis in vehicles without autopilot. If we had better aggregate stats we could compute the statistical likelihood of it, but this stuff isn't tracked anywhere near as closely or completely as, say, aircraft accidents. I don't trust Tesla's self-reported cherry-picked stats.
- zardo 2y ago
  People glance at diatractions, aware that they are responsible for driving their car. Believing that your car can drive itself is something new.

ceejayoz 2y ago

Tesla's using statistical sleight of hand with that stat; FSD can only be engaged in certain scenarios, and they're inherently newer vehicles than the national average. Comparing Teslas on the highway in California against 20 year old beaters in snowstorms in New England is... not reasonable. It's also entirely self-reported, which given that they've knowingly lied about range, is itself a bit concerning... https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-batteries-range/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-ba...

SoftTalker 2y ago

The question is irrelevant when it comes to liability and responsibility.