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> The potential future revenue from having the best model is presumably in the trillions. I heard this winner-takes-all spiel before - only last time, it was a
by sangnoir 3y ago
> The potential future revenue from having the best model is presumably in the trillions.
I heard this winner-takes-all spiel before - only last time, it was about Uber or Tesla[1] robo-taxis making car ownership obsolete. Uber has since exited the self-driving business, Cruise is on hold/unwinding and the whole self-driving bubble has mostly deflated, and most of the startups are long gone, despite the billions invested in the self-driving space. Waymo is the only company with robo-taxis, albeit in only 2 tiny markets and many years away from general availability.
1. Tesla is making robo-taxi noises once more, and again, to juice investor sentiment.
- a13n 3y agoUber and Tesla are valued at 150B and 500B respectively, I'd say in terms of an ROI on deploying large amounts of capital these are both huge success stories. No investment in an emerging market is a sure thing, it's an educated guess. You have to take a lot of swings to occasionally hit a homerun, and investing in AI seems like the most plausible swing to make at this time.
- sangnoir 3y agoI didn't claim there's no positive ROI. I only noted that the breathlessly promised "trillion+ dollar self-driving market" failed to materialize. I suspect the AI market will have a similar trajectory in the next decade: no actual AGI - maybe one company still plugging away at it, a couple of very successful companies whose core competencies don't include AI, but with billions in market cap, and a lot of failed startups littering the way there.