4 ms·

Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the Eurovision Song Contest

118 points by rouli 14y ago

toemetoch 14y ago
For the 2012 contest, I assume that all friendship values remain the same as in previous years. Being in Europe, I'd say that the love for several countries has been in constant review over the past year. Just how and by how much will be clear after we do the exercise again, after Eurosong 2012. P.S. that title ("I've got Eurosong fever, Ted") is from a TV series called "Father Ted". I recommend.
sp332 14y ago
Gotta love statistician logic! The increase in certainty is probably due to additional information gleaned from actually listening to the song.
- __float 14y ago
  It is quite a good song, considering the genre.
Edootjuh 14y ago
Very interesting, and not too hard to follow with little knowledge of statistics. I might even start taking an interest in the contest, despite the Netherlands coming up with terrible songs to enter every year.
Gring 14y ago
Interesting part: "In 2009, it was reported that the 43 Azerbaijanis who texted in votes for Armenia in that year’s contest were summoned to the National Security Ministry to explain their actions". I'm surprised that this country was allowed to stay in the EBU after such a behavior. Really shocking. Lebanon was more or less thrown out of the competition for not playing by the rules (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon_in_the_Eurovision_Song...), so I'm surprised the EBU did not do the same here.
- yesbabyyes 14y ago
  And Azerbaijan is hosting the contest right now. A journalist friend of mine currently reporting from Baku was presented with a newspaper on hir hotel room, reading: "[...] tourists and visitors coming to Azerbaijan will be able to personally become convinced that the Azerbaijani society is tolerant. Political pluralism and human rights have been fully ensured in Azerbaijan. The rules of our civil society do not lag behind European ones." The EBU is a pretty tolerant organization, I guess, but tracking down people voting in the contest... What can I say? Yay nationalism.
  - Someone 14y ago
    If this happened at all, I would expect that the EBU wasn't involved. A 'sufficiently powerful' state does not need cooperation of the owner of a phone number to check who SMSes what to it.
losethos 14y ago
tongues, not AI. God says... you're_wonderful fun CIA these_cans_are_defective It_grieves_me it'd_take_a_miracle little_fish now_that_I_think_about_it talk_to_my_lawyer the_enquirer spending dufas biggot Dudly_Doright car middle_class revolution clever hype
hu_me 14y ago
slight sidestep but it would be interesting to see how the friendship factors have changed over the years. Could be fun to map on a news timeline to see how it evolves with the geopolitical events.
Anon84 14y ago
In a similar note... ( American Idol prediction based on social media ) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4015553 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4015553
sparknlaunch12 14y ago
Does anyone know what twitter (data) is predicting about the final? Twitter has done quite will in picking recent elections, sporting events etc The recent crisis in Europe should make the voting interesting.
ebiester 14y ago
The Israel numbers seem off - they have a large issue getting votes right now, as evidenced by this semifinal when they (subjectively) had one of the top three songs but didn't make it to the finals. There may be a big change in public opinion, but I don't remember Israel being popular in Europe for at least the last few years... (From one of the very few Americans to actually know about Eurovision, much less watch it.)
- mewo2 14y ago
  Israel's numbers are actually fairly middle-of-the-road. They don't have any habitual points donors (except maybe France), but they've only failed to qualify three times (four if you include last night). They made the top ten in both 2005 and 2008, and they won in 1998. I think you may just have a different opinion of what makes a good song than the voters of Europe.
fuzzythinker 14y ago
There's also a Million Song Dataset Challenge going on on Kaggle now: http://www.kaggle.com/c/msdchallenge http://www.kaggle.com/c/msdchallenge
iuguy 14y ago
Living in a multinational household Eurovision is always a fun evening of cheesy euro-pop and European geopolitics. I've always preferred Terry Wogan's humourous coverage of the event, which he's attributed to getting progressively more drunk as the night goes on[1]. I imagine this year that no matter how good the song, Greece will be getting nil point from Germany and vice versa. Of course, Cyprus and Greece get nil point in our household, thanks to the Turkish element. Likewise, the French get nil point from the English side. I imagine for Americans it must all be rather bemusing and strange. The post misses a substantial point about the Czech song Aven Romale[2], that many eastern european countries that would normally bloc vote would be against voting for a Gypsy song based on cultural reasons. I do like the point about the Azeris and Nagorno Karabakh though. [1] - http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/may/15/eurovision-song-contest-graham-norton-terry-wogan http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/may/15/eurovision-song-... [2] - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3CgUmzl4sk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3CgUmzl4sk

118 points by rouli 14y ago

For the 2012 contest, I assume that all friendship values remain the same as in previous years. Being in Europe, I'd say that the love for several countries has been in constant review over the past year. Just how and by how much will be clear after we do the exercise again, after Eurosong 2012. P.S. that title ("I've got Eurosong fever, Ted") is from a TV series called "Father Ted". I recommend.

sp332 14y ago

Gotta love statistician logic! The increase in certainty is probably due to additional information gleaned from actually listening to the song.

__float 14y ago
It is quite a good song, considering the genre.

Edootjuh 14y ago

Very interesting, and not too hard to follow with little knowledge of statistics. I might even start taking an interest in the contest, despite the Netherlands coming up with terrible songs to enter every year.

Gring 14y ago

Interesting part: "In 2009, it was reported that the 43 Azerbaijanis who texted in votes for Armenia in that year’s contest were summoned to the National Security Ministry to explain their actions". I'm surprised that this country was allowed to stay in the EBU after such a behavior. Really shocking. Lebanon was more or less thrown out of the competition for not playing by the rules (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon_in_the_Eurovision_Song...), so I'm surprised the EBU did not do the same here.

yesbabyyes 14y ago
And Azerbaijan is hosting the contest right now. A journalist friend of mine currently reporting from Baku was presented with a newspaper on hir hotel room, reading: "[...] tourists and visitors coming to Azerbaijan will be able to personally become convinced that the Azerbaijani society is tolerant. Political pluralism and human rights have been fully ensured in Azerbaijan. The rules of our civil society do not lag behind European ones." The EBU is a pretty tolerant organization, I guess, but tracking down people voting in the contest... What can I say? Yay nationalism.
- Someone 14y ago
  If this happened at all, I would expect that the EBU wasn't involved. A 'sufficiently powerful' state does not need cooperation of the owner of a phone number to check who SMSes what to it.

losethos 14y ago

tongues, not AI. God says... you're_wonderful fun CIA these_cans_are_defective It_grieves_me it'd_take_a_miracle little_fish now_that_I_think_about_it talk_to_my_lawyer the_enquirer spending dufas biggot Dudly_Doright car middle_class revolution clever hype

hu_me 14y ago

slight sidestep but it would be interesting to see how the friendship factors have changed over the years. Could be fun to map on a news timeline to see how it evolves with the geopolitical events.

Anon84 14y ago

In a similar note... ( American Idol prediction based on social media ) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4015553 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4015553

sparknlaunch12 14y ago

Does anyone know what twitter (data) is predicting about the final? Twitter has done quite will in picking recent elections, sporting events etc The recent crisis in Europe should make the voting interesting.

ebiester 14y ago

The Israel numbers seem off - they have a large issue getting votes right now, as evidenced by this semifinal when they (subjectively) had one of the top three songs but didn't make it to the finals. There may be a big change in public opinion, but I don't remember Israel being popular in Europe for at least the last few years... (From one of the very few Americans to actually know about Eurovision, much less watch it.)

mewo2 14y ago
Israel's numbers are actually fairly middle-of-the-road. They don't have any habitual points donors (except maybe France), but they've only failed to qualify three times (four if you include last night). They made the top ten in both 2005 and 2008, and they won in 1998. I think you may just have a different opinion of what makes a good song than the voters of Europe.

fuzzythinker 14y ago

There's also a Million Song Dataset Challenge going on on Kaggle now: http://www.kaggle.com/c/msdchallenge http://www.kaggle.com/c/msdchallenge

iuguy 14y ago

Living in a multinational household Eurovision is always a fun evening of cheesy euro-pop and European geopolitics. I've always preferred Terry Wogan's humourous coverage of the event, which he's attributed to getting progressively more drunk as the night goes on[1]. I imagine this year that no matter how good the song, Greece will be getting nil point from Germany and vice versa. Of course, Cyprus and Greece get nil point in our household, thanks to the Turkish element. Likewise, the French get nil point from the English side. I imagine for Americans it must all be rather bemusing and strange. The post misses a substantial point about the Czech song Aven Romale[2], that many eastern european countries that would normally bloc vote would be against voting for a Gypsy song based on cultural reasons. I do like the point about the Azeris and Nagorno Karabakh though. [1] - http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/may/15/eurovision-song-contest-graham-norton-terry-wogan http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/may/15/eurovision-song-... [2] - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3CgUmzl4sk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3CgUmzl4sk