3 ms·

Have battery costs reached an asymptote? I was expecting them to continue dropping, until EVs were clearly cheaper than gas/hybrids.

by Tempest1981 2y ago

cjk2 2y ago
It's an exponential decay in pricing. The marketing promise was a faster linear decay but that was unrealistic and was used to bolster investment capital. This affected confidence heavily. Examples here at EO 2023. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-prices/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-p...
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
paganel 2y ago
> until EVs were clearly cheaper than gas/hybrids. That's never going to happen, I'm not that good at physics but there must be some deep thermodynamically principle involved or similar to that. Something on the lines of what Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen [1] war writing about. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen
- pjc50 2y ago
  It all depends on the tax treatment of carbon, not physics.
  - paganel 2y ago
    Which is why I mentioned Georgescu-Roegen [1], this is an economics + physics thing.
- Y-bar 2y ago
  > That's never going to happen Never say never, there is a clear theoretical possibility that we might one day properly price in all externalities (such as cost of dealing with climate change and conflicts related to hydrocarbons) into the cost of goods and services. That said, those chances are unfortunately small.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  > That's never going to happen, I'm not that good at physics but there must be some deep thermodynamically principle involved or similar to that. Eh? Not totally sure what you're getting at; do you believe that there's a fundamental law of physics that says that batteries can never fall in price below where they are now, or something?
  - paganel 2y ago
    Maybe not fundamental, but something similar to that, yes. I think that when coupled with economics (i.e., basically, price) there's nothing that can surpass carbon-based energy. Carbon-based energy is basically condensed and stored solar power, i.e. some of the cheapest things there can be, taking into consideration that the "condensed and stored" part happens by default, the only money that we spend is in trying to get to those condensed and stored" resources and to transport them (oil wells, digging coal-mines etc)
    - rsynnott 2y ago
      I mean, even if that were the case, if batteries were free, electric cars would handily outdo internal combustion cars; car engines are _really_ inefficient compared to large gas turbines (absolute best case under 40%, realistically closer to 20%). > the only money that we spend is in trying to get to those condensed and stored" resources and to transport them (oil wells, digging coal-mines etc) That's a huge "the only"; we're already seeing solar beat gas on pricing in some cases.
      - paganel 2y ago
        That's the thing, I don't think that batteries will ever be free, or close to free. > we're already seeing solar beat gas on pricing in some cases. That's why I also added the condensed/storage part, which with carbon comes by default (or at low enough prices). Forests (including geological ones on which current carbon-energy is mostly based) are (were) world-wide solar farms which come with no costs, a human-made thing will never be able to compete with that, price-wise.
- eunos 2y ago
  Laugh in BYD
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  > That's never going to happen It's already happened. The $10,000 (in China) BYD Seagull is superior IMO to any <$20,000 ICE vehicle. You can lease a bZ4x for $169 a month. Many people can save more than $169 in fuel costs by switching to electric, making that bZ4x essentially "free after estimated fuel savings" to use the silly Tesla phrasing.

Have battery costs reached an asymptote? I was expecting them to continue dropping, until EVs were clearly cheaper than gas/hybrids.

cjk2 2y ago

It's an exponential decay in pricing. The marketing promise was a faster linear decay but that was unrealistic and was used to bolster investment capital. This affected confidence heavily. Examples here at EO 2023. https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-prices/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/01/record-low-ev-battery-p...

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

paganel 2y ago

> until EVs were clearly cheaper than gas/hybrids. That's never going to happen, I'm not that good at physics but there must be some deep thermodynamically principle involved or similar to that. Something on the lines of what Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen [1] war writing about. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen

pjc50 2y ago
It all depends on the tax treatment of carbon, not physics.
- paganel 2y ago
  Which is why I mentioned Georgescu-Roegen [1], this is an economics + physics thing.
Y-bar 2y ago
> That's never going to happen Never say never, there is a clear theoretical possibility that we might one day properly price in all externalities (such as cost of dealing with climate change and conflicts related to hydrocarbons) into the cost of goods and services. That said, those chances are unfortunately small.
rsynnott 2y ago
> That's never going to happen, I'm not that good at physics but there must be some deep thermodynamically principle involved or similar to that. Eh? Not totally sure what you're getting at; do you believe that there's a fundamental law of physics that says that batteries can never fall in price below where they are now, or something?
- paganel 2y ago
  Maybe not fundamental, but something similar to that, yes. I think that when coupled with economics (i.e., basically, price) there's nothing that can surpass carbon-based energy. Carbon-based energy is basically condensed and stored solar power, i.e. some of the cheapest things there can be, taking into consideration that the "condensed and stored" part happens by default, the only money that we spend is in trying to get to those condensed and stored" resources and to transport them (oil wells, digging coal-mines etc)
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    I mean, even if that were the case, if batteries were free, electric cars would handily outdo internal combustion cars; car engines are _really_ inefficient compared to large gas turbines (absolute best case under 40%, realistically closer to 20%). > the only money that we spend is in trying to get to those condensed and stored" resources and to transport them (oil wells, digging coal-mines etc) That's a huge "the only"; we're already seeing solar beat gas on pricing in some cases.
    - paganel 2y ago
      That's the thing, I don't think that batteries will ever be free, or close to free. > we're already seeing solar beat gas on pricing in some cases. That's why I also added the condensed/storage part, which with carbon comes by default (or at low enough prices). Forests (including geological ones on which current carbon-energy is mostly based) are (were) world-wide solar farms which come with no costs, a human-made thing will never be able to compete with that, price-wise.
eunos 2y ago
Laugh in BYD
bryanlarsen 2y ago
> That's never going to happen It's already happened. The $10,000 (in China) BYD Seagull is superior IMO to any <$20,000 ICE vehicle. You can lease a bZ4x for $169 a month. Many people can save more than $169 in fuel costs by switching to electric, making that bZ4x essentially "free after estimated fuel savings" to use the silly Tesla phrasing.