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I’m so tired of this take. “Existing supply for this resource doesn’t currently match predictions for future demand! The end is near!” Yes, prices will go up

I’m so tired of this take. “Existing supply for this resource doesn’t currently match predictions for future demand! The end is near!” Yes, prices will go up when demand goes up, then production goes up when developing new sources becomes economical, then prices stabilize. Alternative designs become competitive. There’s probably going to be lag, the horror! Like yes resources aren’t infinitely and instantly elastic. This is not an interesting fact.

bsder 3y ago
In addition, just like we do for lead from lead-acid batteries, we will get much better at recycling rare earth metals from old batteries.
hackerlight 3y ago
> Yes, prices will go up when demand goes up Even better, prices are going down while demand goes up. Economies of scale is working wonders. Also, all the forecasts I've seen expect lithium ion $/kWh to keep dropping until 2030 despite increasing demand. Maybe this blog post is correct but I'm inclined to ignore such doomsaying because of the poor historical track record of such claims, and the sheer volume of lies surrounding EVs and renewables. Such claims need extensive receipts if they're to be taken seriously. In the case of grid storage, there's also substitutes (sodium ion, redox flow, pumped hydro, sand). If lithium ion becomes an issue and the market prioritizes other types, economies of scale will again come in and assist the cost curves of these alternatives.
thefz 3y ago
Exactly, they are not handcuffing the EV revolution but rather the "revolution" must not need so many rare earths maybe? Stupid planet hindering profit...
- colechristensen 3y ago
  No, there are plenty of rare earths around. There are proven mineral deposits several places around the world including the US which haven't been developed into operating mines because the demand wasn't good enough to make it a good business bet. When there's more demand, prices will go up a little and people will open some of those mines.
  - thefz 3y ago
    So let's destroy the earth then, the market will fix it

bsder 3y ago

In addition, just like we do for lead from lead-acid batteries, we will get much better at recycling rare earth metals from old batteries.

hackerlight 3y ago

> Yes, prices will go up when demand goes up Even better, prices are going down while demand goes up. Economies of scale is working wonders. Also, all the forecasts I've seen expect lithium ion $/kWh to keep dropping until 2030 despite increasing demand. Maybe this blog post is correct but I'm inclined to ignore such doomsaying because of the poor historical track record of such claims, and the sheer volume of lies surrounding EVs and renewables. Such claims need extensive receipts if they're to be taken seriously. In the case of grid storage, there's also substitutes (sodium ion, redox flow, pumped hydro, sand). If lithium ion becomes an issue and the market prioritizes other types, economies of scale will again come in and assist the cost curves of these alternatives.

thefz 3y ago

Exactly, they are not handcuffing the EV revolution but rather the "revolution" must not need so many rare earths maybe? Stupid planet hindering profit...

colechristensen 3y ago
No, there are plenty of rare earths around. There are proven mineral deposits several places around the world including the US which haven't been developed into operating mines because the demand wasn't good enough to make it a good business bet. When there's more demand, prices will go up a little and people will open some of those mines.
- thefz 3y ago
  So let's destroy the earth then, the market will fix it