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Tesla Q1 2024 Update [pdf]
- blackeyeblitzar 3y agoStock is up 8% after hours: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA Probably because of this bit from Slide 10: > These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up. > This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines. > Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy.
- bigtex88 3y ago[flagged]
- 01100011 3y agoSo they've cut staff but they're going to introduce new models? They're finally going to deliver on the cheaper vehicles? The ones that cost less and will squeeze their margins?
- constantcrying 3y ago>So they've cut staff but they're going to introduce new models? With a bizarre statement about the platforms it is going to use.
- constantcrying 3y agoInteresting that they seem to flip flop on the affordable models. Other companies (e.g. VW) have started with higher cost models for experimentation on the market, leaving the lower cost models for later. The ID.2 will be coming quite soon, interesting what Tesla plans.
- darth_avocado 3y agoBased on Elon’s history of making statements, them working on cheaper vehicles would most likely be them selling Model Y with lower range and/or cheaper batteries, but Wall Street will interpret that as them making a bet new $20000 hatchback.
- constantcrying 3y agoThe statement about platforms implies to me a whole new car. VW and Renault have been in talks about developing an EV like that. Both manufacturers have always focused more on large scale low cost vehicles. Certainly Tesla will be competing in a much more difficult market, where they will face competition.
- nateglims 3y agoIt could also just be better numbers than some were expecting
- TheAlchemist 3y agoThat's pretty amazing and I don't believe it for a second. So last quarter, Musk said that they were very advanced on the new platform with a 'mind blowing' new production line, and now it states that they can magically release a new model on the current production line... And of course, all India, Mexico etc factories are out of question now. It just doesn't add up at all.
- dubcanada 3y agoThe stocks up 8% within seconds of the announcement. It has nothing to do with slide 10. It's unlikely anyone but bots read it before it was up 8%. And now it's just gamblers buying after hours as they always do. More likely what happened was shorts who have tanked this stock down in one of the biggest bull runs of history are covering off rather flat news. The stocks is sitting down where it was in 2020. That is hardly a positive for investors, considering the other popular SP500/Nasdaq stocks are all breaking all time highs.
- jerlam 3y agoIt's been an hour or so, now it's up 10% after hours.
- user_7832 3y ago> C O S T G R I N D - S Q U E E Z I N G E V E R Y P E N N Y O U T O F T H E V E H I C L E C O S T Not sure if that's a good thing for a car company > D O J O T R A I N I N G C L U S T E R ( N O T A R E N D E R ) That's... interesting? For a financial document?
- constantcrying 3y agoCertainly explains the layoffs. Interesting that apparently they are still pursuing lower cost offerings. But it really didn't make much sense what they said about it taking stuff from new and old platforms, that sounds really stupid.
- VirusNewbie 3y agoI think tesla makes great mid level cars. Their high end offerings don’t feel high end enough, but the cheaper model 3s have a comparable fit and finish to other similarly priced vehicles and have some good tech.
- constantcrying 3y agoThe question is whether they can survive if they are up against established competition. Do they focus on that segment and try to establish themselves against the competition there or do they plan on capturing other parts of the market? Budget cars are always far harder to make then these midrange models atleast the margins will be lower and you need scale to compensate. Tesla had the enormous advantage of being early to market with a mediocre car with extremely great software. Now nearly every other car company is competing with them. To be honest, if I was buying a Tesla priced EV today, I wouldn't buy a Tesla.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago> But it really didn't make much sense what they said about it taking stuff from new and old platforms, that sounds really stupid. What it means to me is that the new vehicles aren't going to copy all the stupid stuff from Cybertruck.
- constantcrying 3y agoSure, but if you are making a new car you should decide what platform you use. Picking from two different platforms defeats the purpose of building platforms.
- 3y ago
- bryanlarsen 3y agoTesla's struggles are good news for non-Tesla buyers. Tesla's missteps will force them to reduce prices to keep volume up. Tesla's price reductions will force competitors to reduce their prices. For example, you can now lease a Toyota bZ4x for $169/month. https://electrek.co/2024/04/23/you-can-lease-a-toyota-bz4x-for-next-to-nothing-right-now/ https://electrek.co/2024/04/23/you-can-lease-a-toyota-bz4x-f...
- melodyogonna 3y agoWhat are these missteps?
- toomuchtodo 3y agoCybertruck vs $25k Model 2. Focusing on FSD that doesn’t work well enough to sell in meaningful quantities (and may never work well enough to be unsupervised). People want and will buy cheaper EVs. See: BYD. Make more, less expensive EVs faster. But this won’t support Teslas robotaxi/AI company valuation, which Elon needs to stay wealthy and powerful. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-23/tesla-tsla-stumbles-again-as-profit-sales-fall-short-of-estimates https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-23/tesla-tsl... | https://archive.today/EzU6O https://archive.today/EzU6O (“Tesla to Accelerate Launch of Cheaper Cars After Sales Miss”) https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/02/byd-produced-more-than-3-million-cars-in-2023-set-to-beat-tesla.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/02/byd-produced-more-than-3-mil... ("BYD beats Tesla for a second straight year after producing more than 3 million cars in 2023")
- ripjaygn 3y agoThats outdated news. > BYD, China's biggest electric vehicle (EV) maker, reported first quarter 2024 sales fell 43% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, handing back the title of world's biggest EV seller to Tesla after winning it last year. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-may-hand-back-top-ev-seller-title-tesla-after-q1-sales-decline-2024-04-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-ma... Bad news for Tesla is highly pumped on social media and media.
- wnevets 3y ago[flagged]
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- willio58 3y agoJust looking at that second page, it's truly a bloodbath in terms of numbers for Q1. Down on nearly every measure. They give a bunch of excuses on the first page. All of the excuses are just them pointing the finger externally and not taking enough ownership. Anecdata alert, but I think Elon's connection to the company is increasingly problematic for Tesla. Among my friend group, 5 years ago it was cool when someone you knew bought a Tesla. Now, it's cringe. This is hyperbolic but it's almost like someone buying a Trump EV. Tesla isn't just the "Apple" of EVs like it used to be, it increasingly has all of these politically questionable and cringy meme ideas of its owner wrapped up in its brand. Which is a bummer, because it really shouldn't be that way. I believe there are great people that work (and worked before this recent layoff) at Tesla. But Tesla's owner is just a liability for them all.
- sevagh 3y ago[flagged]
- mvdtnz 3y ago[flagged]
- melodyogonna 3y ago[flagged]
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- aantix 3y agoHas anyone experienced FSD 12.3.5 yet? It's hard to distinguish the hype vs real experience on Twitter. How would it compare to the Waymo or Cruise taxi experience?
- wilson919 2y ago12.3.4 is pretty good. The pros are that I've seen very human behavior from it like speeding up to get through a yellow light and letting people merge when they have a turn signals on. It also slows down for speed bumps and avoids blocking 4 way stops if pedestrians are crossing in the far side. The bad is hard braking and acceleration at stop signs and there are just some situations where it waits too late to brake and then brakes too hard. Downloading 12.3.5 now to test it
- mdeeks 3y agoI just got a FSD trial of 12.3.4 on my Model Y. It's better than I expected, but still feels far from something that can fully autonomously drive. Freeway driving works really well and has for years. Street driving is hit and miss. So much that I basically turn it off unless I'm driving a known good path. It handles intersections, street lights, and stop signs just fine. It goes around cars blocking the road, waiting first for a clear path in oncoming traffic. On the bad side, it brakes REALLY hard a lot and accelerates REALLY hard off of stop signs. It often freaks out when pedestrians are near the side of the road. My car came to a rapid full stop because some bikers were standing looking at their phones about 6 feet from a crosswalk. Besides being jarring and annoying, it pissed off and scared the person behind me. The car wouldn't have moved if I didn't disengage FSD. It drove right towards a very low curb that suddenly appears in the roadway by my house. It's an old curb that sits maybe only 3 inches high but would definitely feel like a slam and maybe damage the tire if we hit it. I'm guessing it doesn't look enough like a normal curb to FSD There are a bunch of small experiences just like these. I disengage nearly every trip and often at least twice.
- jdminhbg 3y agoI'm also on the free trial, this is relatively close to my experience. It's phenomenal on the highway, but it's too "good" of a driver in town that it feels like you'd never get anywhere because you're the only one actually obeying traffic laws. > The car wouldn't have moved if I didn't disengage FSD. I didn't realize it at first, but you don't have to fully disengage if it's hesitant about going. You can just push the gas pedal and it'll move along the path it was planning on going.
- cyberax 3y agoTesla has long been experimenting on customers to see how much abuse they can suffer: bad service center experience, bad software updates that degrade functionality, stout refusal to introduce features that people want, braindead decisions like removing turn stalks and ultrasonic sensors, constant assembly quality issues, etc. Turns out, that customers do have a limit on the amount of abuse they can take. I own a 2018 Model 3, after owning a Model S. I would love to upgrade, but new Model 3 cars are just inferior to what I have (except for the range).
- mrpippy 3y agoI guess it's now called "FSD (Supervised)" (with footnote: "Active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous.") What a silly and self-contradictory name. "Full", until it isn't.
- TheAlchemist 3y agoThe real reason for this change is probably that it allows them to recognize some FSD revenues this quarter - without that, the numbers would look even worse.
- kklisura 3y agoIs FSD recognized revenue part of "Automotive sales" or "Services and other" items?
- mrpippy 3y agoThe change happened in March, so the timing at least lines up. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-formally-drops-fsd-beta-moniker/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-formally-drops-fsd-beta-moni...
- hnburnsy 3y agoSame for Autopilot... >An autopilot is a system used to control the path of an aircraft, marine craft or spacecraft without requiring constant manual control by a human operator. Autopilots do not replace human operators. Instead, the autopilot assists the operator's control of the vehicle, allowing the operator to focus on broader aspects of operations (for example, monitoring the trajectory, weather and on-board systems).
- yayitswei 3y agoWhich part of that definition doesn't fit Tesla's autopilot?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- rvz 3y agoAll the comments here remind me of the same sentiment [0] when Meta went all the way down to $89 and nobody bought it and it was all over for Zuckerberg and Facebook. What happened next was just business as usual with the price rising from $89 to $500. Lets hope that $TSLA's price crashes 50% and it would be a perfect time to buy. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31832439 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31832439
- basiccalendar74 3y agoexcept META was $90 when all tech was in recession. TSLA is crashing even when all tech and broader market has been rising.
- itsoktocry 3y agoMeta prints money, Tesla does not.
- melodyogonna 3y agoThey're continuing to expand in the face of challenges. I'm actually bullish on Tesla longterm, if they ever manage to crack self driving.
- itsoktocry 3y agoWhat choice do they have? It's too late to be a small, profitable car company, even if that's the best path. They told everyone they are going to own the market.
- ChrisArchitect 3y agoRelated: Tesla’s in its flop era https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40133832 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40133832
- bryanlarsen 3y agoThat's a pre-earnings report story. Not a dupe.
- whalee 3y agoThe near 8x increase in compute capacity since March 2023 is the eyebrow raiser for me. My belief is that the vast majority of speculative value in Tesla has almost nothing to do with their hardware and everything to do with the potential of FSD. If you believe the hypothesis that Americans will pay a huge premium (directly or indirectly by subsidizing the poor build quality) to decrease the mental load by 85% on their twice-daily 35 minute commute, then the company is in good shape. On top of this, their data moat is enormous and their pipeline is mature. Other car companies seeking this level of autonomous fidelity will need to either race to start harvesting as much data as possible, or make a bet that this quantity will be unnecessary with future models. Then again, if you don't buy the value-add promise of FSD hypothesis then this company is faltering hard. Cybertruck is flopping in sales (with life-threatening build issues as a bonus), the company is facing deteriorating public perception, the tightening economy makes the 'premium'/'apple' presentation less appealing, serious competitors recently entered the EV market, on and on.
- esoterica 3y agoTesla is not the leader in self driving, they are pretty far behind both Cruise and Waymo, which have or used to have driverless vehicles legally operating on public roads. If you're betting on driverless tech why would you go with Tesla and not Google or GM?
- SheddingPattern 3y agoMercedes is ahead of Tesla in self driving. Sae 3 vs 2
- basiccalendar74 3y agomental load of driving is already reduced quite a bit (50%?) by Basic Autopilot.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y agoMore like increased when you need to constantly babysit it.
- 3y ago