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I'm not convinced it's a Fermi paradox solution. I'm not saying civilizations don't sometimes destroy themselves but a). the one civilization we know of didn't

I'm not convinced it's a Fermi paradox solution. I'm not saying civilizations don't sometimes destroy themselves but a). the one civilization we know of didn't do it yet and b). doesn't this require something inherent to life for this to explain the fermi paradox? it seems like this just moves the question from "where are all the aliens" to "why does every civilization regardless of environment/planet/etc. ALWAYS destroy themselves" which doesn't seem like an easier question to answer?

bee_rider 3y ago
A suffers from survivorship bias, right? The civilization in which we exist can’t have destroyed itself yet if we are to have made that observation.
- snapcaster 3y ago
  Sure, but compared to what? I don't know what you would call the bias of "imaginging bad stuff happening in the future, and for some reason the bad stuff is inevitable regardless of planet, lifeform, etc."
sethammons 3y ago
we've seen many, many cases of civilizations not making it. In the case of the Mayan Empire, it is looking like they killed off their civilization via climate change -- weather models show that the increased agriculture and removal of the surrounding jungle would have dropped annual rainfall, leading to the drop in water levels that we know happened in the cinotes (where they got all their water), leading to the collapse of the civilization (lost knowledge and culture). By the time Cortez arrived, nobody knew how to build nor maintain their megalithic structures. Now, total extinction of a civilization meaning all of a civilized species, maybe we saw that with neanderthals and other early hominids.
- masfuerte 3y ago
  Yes, and if we do end this civilization it will be much harder to bootstrap the next one. The easily accessible coal and oil are gone.
- snapcaster 3y ago
  True, I guess what I meant is that we didn't blow ourselves up during the Cold War. For something to be a Fermi Paradox solution it has to explain the _complete_ lack of life we see. Something being hard or requiring luck isn't enough due to the vastness of space. It would still occur countless times even if rare
  - bluish29 3y ago
    > I guess what I meant is that we didn't blow ourselves up during the Cold War By being just lucky in many times. I imagine a scenario where one mistake happened and people took the wrong decision in one moment. It is not like if you repeated the cold war 1000 times you will end up fine in most of them. Lets remember that submarine in Cuban crisis, if this Soviet officer did not give his authentication we wouldn't get into that point. If you repeat the scenario with 1000 officers from this era, I wouldn't like our chances.
    - snapcaster 3y ago
      But the fermi paradox isn't about explaining why one specific civilization isn't present. It's about the _complete_ lack of alien life we observe. In the vast cosmos, there isn't any civilizations that have "got lucky" I don't see how this explanation addresses the core point

bee_rider 3y ago

A suffers from survivorship bias, right? The civilization in which we exist can’t have destroyed itself yet if we are to have made that observation.

snapcaster 3y ago
Sure, but compared to what? I don't know what you would call the bias of "imaginging bad stuff happening in the future, and for some reason the bad stuff is inevitable regardless of planet, lifeform, etc."

sethammons 3y ago

we've seen many, many cases of civilizations not making it. In the case of the Mayan Empire, it is looking like they killed off their civilization via climate change -- weather models show that the increased agriculture and removal of the surrounding jungle would have dropped annual rainfall, leading to the drop in water levels that we know happened in the cinotes (where they got all their water), leading to the collapse of the civilization (lost knowledge and culture). By the time Cortez arrived, nobody knew how to build nor maintain their megalithic structures. Now, total extinction of a civilization meaning all of a civilized species, maybe we saw that with neanderthals and other early hominids.

masfuerte 3y ago
Yes, and if we do end this civilization it will be much harder to bootstrap the next one. The easily accessible coal and oil are gone.
snapcaster 3y ago
True, I guess what I meant is that we didn't blow ourselves up during the Cold War. For something to be a Fermi Paradox solution it has to explain the _complete_ lack of life we see. Something being hard or requiring luck isn't enough due to the vastness of space. It would still occur countless times even if rare
- bluish29 3y ago
  > I guess what I meant is that we didn't blow ourselves up during the Cold War By being just lucky in many times. I imagine a scenario where one mistake happened and people took the wrong decision in one moment. It is not like if you repeated the cold war 1000 times you will end up fine in most of them. Lets remember that submarine in Cuban crisis, if this Soviet officer did not give his authentication we wouldn't get into that point. If you repeat the scenario with 1000 officers from this era, I wouldn't like our chances.
  - snapcaster 3y ago
    But the fermi paradox isn't about explaining why one specific civilization isn't present. It's about the _complete_ lack of alien life we observe. In the vast cosmos, there isn't any civilizations that have "got lucky" I don't see how this explanation addresses the core point