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Indeed. > The American engineers complained of rigid, counterproductive hierarchies at the company; Taiwanese TSMC veterans described their American counterpar

Indeed. > The American engineers complained of rigid, counterproductive hierarchies at the company; Taiwanese TSMC veterans described their American counterparts as lacking the kind of dedication and obedience they believe to be the foundation of their company’s world-leading success. I mean, some humility is in order. TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them. Given the supposed need for expedience it's best to copy that as-is and then you can tweak it once it's up and running.

osnium123 3y ago
[flagged]
- trashtester 3y ago
  If the US starts shipping nukes to Taiwan, we will for sure have a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, with the roles reversed. Unless hundreds of nukes can be installed in full secrecy, China will almost certainly try to sink ANY ship trying to deliver anything from the US to Taiwan, using nukes if necessary.
  - arethuza 3y ago
    If the US wanted to defend Taiwan with nukes wouldn't it just use bombers - no need for the weapons to actually be based on Taiwan?
    - trashtester 3y ago
      If the weapons are not placed in Taiwan, there's no guarantee that the US would use them to defend Taiwan. If the US formally makes such a guarantee, that in itself might trigger a nuclear war. This is a game of chicken, and games of chicken are rather dangerous. Do you want your city nuked to save Taiwan? Does Xi want to risk having Shanghai and Beijing obliterated to maybe take Taiwan? If there is an actual war over Taiwan, it's hopefully going to be a conventional one. But that would also mean China may risk it. Which would make TSMC production out of service for months or years (or forever).
      - arethuza 3y ago
        Just because the weapons are in Taiwan doesn't mean that the US would use them to defend Taiwan - unlike Cuba I doubt if the military leaders would be given delegated authority to use nukes defensively and I doubt any US political leader would use nukes first when faced with a conventional attack on Taiwan.
        trashtester 3y ago
        To be a proper deterrent, Taiwan would need to be able to control their use. I agree that the US would not be likely to use nukes first over Taiwan. Even losing Taiwan would be far preferable to a nuclear exchange for the US. We don't know if China would, but I don't think they would start a conflict over Taiwan if they expected to only be able to "win" if they use nukes. Rather, the only way I can see this become a nuclear war is if Xi starts an invasion due to overconfidence (like Putin with Ukraine), but is then humiliated by a combined Taiwanese/US defense, proceeds to see nukes as the only way to avoid losing face, and then caring more about this than the future of the world. But let's imagine for instance that Russia ends up conquering Ukraine completely, with NATO letting it happen. In such a case, Japan, Korea and many others may suddenly realize that they're not safe until they have a large nuclear arsenal. Once they have build up such an arsenal, it's not that unlikely (I would say) that Taiwan follows, and creates their own secret arsenal of nukes. Maybe even purchasing the tech from Korea or Japan.
- Jerrrry 3y ago
  [flagged]
- pjc50 3y ago
  Non-proliferation is a very important principle which has so far been almost entirely upheld. If the US did that, who would China donate nukes to in response? Iran?
yborg 3y ago
>TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them This was the conventional wisdom about Japan in the 1980s as well, and they fell into the abyss with everyone else when China was capitalized and could offer labor for 1/4 the cost. The tactics that get you there aren't necessarily the ones that keep you there.

osnium123 3y ago

[flagged]

trashtester 3y ago
If the US starts shipping nukes to Taiwan, we will for sure have a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, with the roles reversed. Unless hundreds of nukes can be installed in full secrecy, China will almost certainly try to sink ANY ship trying to deliver anything from the US to Taiwan, using nukes if necessary.
- arethuza 3y ago
  If the US wanted to defend Taiwan with nukes wouldn't it just use bombers - no need for the weapons to actually be based on Taiwan?
  - trashtester 3y ago
    If the weapons are not placed in Taiwan, there's no guarantee that the US would use them to defend Taiwan. If the US formally makes such a guarantee, that in itself might trigger a nuclear war. This is a game of chicken, and games of chicken are rather dangerous. Do you want your city nuked to save Taiwan? Does Xi want to risk having Shanghai and Beijing obliterated to maybe take Taiwan? If there is an actual war over Taiwan, it's hopefully going to be a conventional one. But that would also mean China may risk it. Which would make TSMC production out of service for months or years (or forever).
    - arethuza 3y ago
      Just because the weapons are in Taiwan doesn't mean that the US would use them to defend Taiwan - unlike Cuba I doubt if the military leaders would be given delegated authority to use nukes defensively and I doubt any US political leader would use nukes first when faced with a conventional attack on Taiwan.
      - trashtester 3y ago
        To be a proper deterrent, Taiwan would need to be able to control their use. I agree that the US would not be likely to use nukes first over Taiwan. Even losing Taiwan would be far preferable to a nuclear exchange for the US. We don't know if China would, but I don't think they would start a conflict over Taiwan if they expected to only be able to "win" if they use nukes. Rather, the only way I can see this become a nuclear war is if Xi starts an invasion due to overconfidence (like Putin with Ukraine), but is then humiliated by a combined Taiwanese/US defense, proceeds to see nukes as the only way to avoid losing face, and then caring more about this than the future of the world. But let's imagine for instance that Russia ends up conquering Ukraine completely, with NATO letting it happen. In such a case, Japan, Korea and many others may suddenly realize that they're not safe until they have a large nuclear arsenal. Once they have build up such an arsenal, it's not that unlikely (I would say) that Taiwan follows, and creates their own secret arsenal of nukes. Maybe even purchasing the tech from Korea or Japan.
Jerrrry 3y ago
[flagged]
pjc50 3y ago
Non-proliferation is a very important principle which has so far been almost entirely upheld. If the US did that, who would China donate nukes to in response? Iran?

yborg 3y ago

>TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them This was the conventional wisdom about Japan in the 1980s as well, and they fell into the abyss with everyone else when China was capitalized and could offer labor for 1/4 the cost. The tactics that get you there aren't necessarily the ones that keep you there.