6 ms·

Is it even realistic to expect US fabs to be competitive? I think this article sheds insight into why the US based semiconductor companies like Intel are falli

Is it even realistic to expect US fabs to be competitive? I think this article sheds insight into why the US based semiconductor companies like Intel are falling behind.

fidotron 3y ago
Indeed. > The American engineers complained of rigid, counterproductive hierarchies at the company; Taiwanese TSMC veterans described their American counterparts as lacking the kind of dedication and obedience they believe to be the foundation of their company’s world-leading success. I mean, some humility is in order. TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them. Given the supposed need for expedience it's best to copy that as-is and then you can tweak it once it's up and running.
- osnium123 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - trashtester 3y ago
    If the US starts shipping nukes to Taiwan, we will for sure have a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, with the roles reversed. Unless hundreds of nukes can be installed in full secrecy, China will almost certainly try to sink ANY ship trying to deliver anything from the US to Taiwan, using nukes if necessary.
    - arethuza 3y ago
      If the US wanted to defend Taiwan with nukes wouldn't it just use bombers - no need for the weapons to actually be based on Taiwan?
      - trashtester 3y ago
        If the weapons are not placed in Taiwan, there's no guarantee that the US would use them to defend Taiwan. If the US formally makes such a guarantee, that in itself might trigger a nuclear war. This is a game of chicken, and games of chicken are rather dangerous. Do you want your city nuked to save Taiwan? Does Xi want to risk having Shanghai and Beijing obliterated to maybe take Taiwan? If there is an actual war over Taiwan, it's hopefully going to be a conventional one. But that would also mean China may risk it. Which would make TSMC production out of service for months or years (or forever).
        arethuza 3y ago
        Just because the weapons are in Taiwan doesn't mean that the US would use them to defend Taiwan - unlike Cuba I doubt if the military leaders would be given delegated authority to use nukes defensively and I doubt any US political leader would use nukes first when faced with a conventional attack on Taiwan.
        trashtester 3y ago
        To be a proper deterrent, Taiwan would need to be able to control their use. I agree that the US would not be likely to use nukes first over Taiwan. Even losing Taiwan would be far preferable to a nuclear exchange for the US. We don't know if China would, but I don't think they would start a conflict over Taiwan if they expected to only be able to "win" if they use nukes. Rather, the only way I can see this become a nuclear war is if Xi starts an invasion due to overconfidence (like Putin with Ukraine), but is then humiliated by a combined Taiwanese/US defense, proceeds to see nukes as the only way to avoid losing face, and then caring more about this than the future of the world. But let's imagine for instance that Russia ends up conquering Ukraine completely, with NATO letting it happen. In such a case, Japan, Korea and many others may suddenly realize that they're not safe until they have a large nuclear arsenal. Once they have build up such an arsenal, it's not that unlikely (I would say) that Taiwan follows, and creates their own secret arsenal of nukes. Maybe even purchasing the tech from Korea or Japan.
  - Jerrrry 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - pjc50 3y ago
    Non-proliferation is a very important principle which has so far been almost entirely upheld. If the US did that, who would China donate nukes to in response? Iran?
- yborg 3y ago
  >TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them This was the conventional wisdom about Japan in the 1980s as well, and they fell into the abyss with everyone else when China was capitalized and could offer labor for 1/4 the cost. The tactics that get you there aren't necessarily the ones that keep you there.
Workaccount2 3y ago
Asian work culture is not the only productive work culture.
- osnium123 3y ago
  For manufacturing, it might be the only work culture that’s optimal.
  - kibwen 3y ago
    Only if we allow definitions of "optimal" that don't take into account the well-being of the people doing the manufacturing.
  - trashtester 3y ago
    You may as well say that Asian productivity per unit salary is optimal in Asia. Gross manufacturing productivity in, say, Germany may still be higher than most places in Asia.
Dalewyn 3y ago
>Is it even realistic to expect US fabs to be competitive? The United States invented and has historically dominated semiconductors until the last decade or so, so yes. The problem here is two-fold: Financial misincentives, and the fact anyone who achieves #1 in anything will always fall from grace eventually and often disasterously. It also doesn't help that the Chinese/Taiwanese are very shrewd people compared to Americans who are... lazy, to say the least. I say that as an American.
- osnium123 3y ago
  But don’t you think worse work ethic will prevent the US from ever catching up in the semiconductor industry?
  - Dalewyn 3y ago
    I do, and in fairness I just edited that part in as you made your comment since I realized I neglected to mention it. Americans can dominate in anything they feel motivated to, the problem is getting motivated.
  - trashtester 3y ago
    The US has a pretty good work ethic. It's mostly different from East Asia. It's not like Korean, Japanese or Chinese tech companies are THAT much more productive than US ones. If anything, lower salaries in Asian countries indicates that their productivity is lower than in the US. People in the US work relatively long hours compared to, say, Europe. They're also some of the most creative and agile out there. I suspect that part of the reason TSMC is having such extreme success right now, is that they're by far the most successful company in Taiwan. When they're looking for people, it's like OpenAI looks for people in the US, they can get almost anyone.
    - osnium123 3y ago
      Put another way, TSMC gets the cream of the crop in Taiwan while US based fabs get 2nd/3rd tier talent who couldn’t get work in other sectors. I can see that.
trashtester 3y ago
TSMC has had brilliant success, but this kind of work culture tends to negatively affect creativity and agility. TSMC seems to have found some way to either avoid that or compensate for it, possibly by having the ability to hire only the top technical talent in the territory/country. And moving forward, people are starting to realize the risk of having TSMC manufacture everything in Taiwan, given how little competition they have. If TSMC wouldn't start to move some of their production abroad, they would risk facing import restrictions to western countries or (as already happened) government subsidies to local fabs. To retain their market share, they were probably forced to set up some fabs abroad. In the end, I think it's really good for those new countries to have TSMC set up fabs in their countries, both since it guarantees that some production stays available in the case of a war, but also because the TSMC workers will gradually naturalize in the US or Europe and start to work for companies like Intel or ASML and contribute to crosspollination of ideas abilities. Short term though, cultural conflicts is exactly what one would expect. It's probably very similar to what Western companies experienced when first setting up shops in China or India. In the beginning Western managers would try to have the locals behave like Western employees when it came to initiative and willingness to "say it as it is" when managers were giving impossible orders. Over time many would learn that finding really good local managers able to bridge the east/west culture gap could be really helpful. I'm guessing TSMC will need to do the same thing. Find Western managers (for instance second generation Asians) able to understand both cultures, so they can deal with local employees the way they're used to while also able to work productively with upper management (who would presumably still be Taiwanese).

Is it even realistic to expect US fabs to be competitive? I think this article sheds insight into why the US based semiconductor companies like Intel are falling behind.

fidotron 3y ago

Indeed. > The American engineers complained of rigid, counterproductive hierarchies at the company; Taiwanese TSMC veterans described their American counterparts as lacking the kind of dedication and obedience they believe to be the foundation of their company’s world-leading success. I mean, some humility is in order. TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them. Given the supposed need for expedience it's best to copy that as-is and then you can tweak it once it's up and running.

osnium123 3y ago
[flagged]
- trashtester 3y ago
  If the US starts shipping nukes to Taiwan, we will for sure have a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, with the roles reversed. Unless hundreds of nukes can be installed in full secrecy, China will almost certainly try to sink ANY ship trying to deliver anything from the US to Taiwan, using nukes if necessary.
  - arethuza 3y ago
    If the US wanted to defend Taiwan with nukes wouldn't it just use bombers - no need for the weapons to actually be based on Taiwan?
    - trashtester 3y ago
      If the weapons are not placed in Taiwan, there's no guarantee that the US would use them to defend Taiwan. If the US formally makes such a guarantee, that in itself might trigger a nuclear war. This is a game of chicken, and games of chicken are rather dangerous. Do you want your city nuked to save Taiwan? Does Xi want to risk having Shanghai and Beijing obliterated to maybe take Taiwan? If there is an actual war over Taiwan, it's hopefully going to be a conventional one. But that would also mean China may risk it. Which would make TSMC production out of service for months or years (or forever).
      - arethuza 3y ago
        Just because the weapons are in Taiwan doesn't mean that the US would use them to defend Taiwan - unlike Cuba I doubt if the military leaders would be given delegated authority to use nukes defensively and I doubt any US political leader would use nukes first when faced with a conventional attack on Taiwan.
        trashtester 3y ago
        To be a proper deterrent, Taiwan would need to be able to control their use. I agree that the US would not be likely to use nukes first over Taiwan. Even losing Taiwan would be far preferable to a nuclear exchange for the US. We don't know if China would, but I don't think they would start a conflict over Taiwan if they expected to only be able to "win" if they use nukes. Rather, the only way I can see this become a nuclear war is if Xi starts an invasion due to overconfidence (like Putin with Ukraine), but is then humiliated by a combined Taiwanese/US defense, proceeds to see nukes as the only way to avoid losing face, and then caring more about this than the future of the world. But let's imagine for instance that Russia ends up conquering Ukraine completely, with NATO letting it happen. In such a case, Japan, Korea and many others may suddenly realize that they're not safe until they have a large nuclear arsenal. Once they have build up such an arsenal, it's not that unlikely (I would say) that Taiwan follows, and creates their own secret arsenal of nukes. Maybe even purchasing the tech from Korea or Japan.
- Jerrrry 3y ago
  [flagged]
- pjc50 3y ago
  Non-proliferation is a very important principle which has so far been almost entirely upheld. If the US did that, who would China donate nukes to in response? Iran?
yborg 3y ago
>TSMC are succeeding because of these things, not in spite of them This was the conventional wisdom about Japan in the 1980s as well, and they fell into the abyss with everyone else when China was capitalized and could offer labor for 1/4 the cost. The tactics that get you there aren't necessarily the ones that keep you there.

Workaccount2 3y ago

Asian work culture is not the only productive work culture.

osnium123 3y ago
For manufacturing, it might be the only work culture that’s optimal.
- kibwen 3y ago
  Only if we allow definitions of "optimal" that don't take into account the well-being of the people doing the manufacturing.
- trashtester 3y ago
  You may as well say that Asian productivity per unit salary is optimal in Asia. Gross manufacturing productivity in, say, Germany may still be higher than most places in Asia.

Dalewyn 3y ago

>Is it even realistic to expect US fabs to be competitive? The United States invented and has historically dominated semiconductors until the last decade or so, so yes. The problem here is two-fold: Financial misincentives, and the fact anyone who achieves #1 in anything will always fall from grace eventually and often disasterously. It also doesn't help that the Chinese/Taiwanese are very shrewd people compared to Americans who are... lazy, to say the least. I say that as an American.

osnium123 3y ago
But don’t you think worse work ethic will prevent the US from ever catching up in the semiconductor industry?
- Dalewyn 3y ago
  I do, and in fairness I just edited that part in as you made your comment since I realized I neglected to mention it. Americans can dominate in anything they feel motivated to, the problem is getting motivated.
- trashtester 3y ago
  The US has a pretty good work ethic. It's mostly different from East Asia. It's not like Korean, Japanese or Chinese tech companies are THAT much more productive than US ones. If anything, lower salaries in Asian countries indicates that their productivity is lower than in the US. People in the US work relatively long hours compared to, say, Europe. They're also some of the most creative and agile out there. I suspect that part of the reason TSMC is having such extreme success right now, is that they're by far the most successful company in Taiwan. When they're looking for people, it's like OpenAI looks for people in the US, they can get almost anyone.
  - osnium123 3y ago
    Put another way, TSMC gets the cream of the crop in Taiwan while US based fabs get 2nd/3rd tier talent who couldn’t get work in other sectors. I can see that.

trashtester 3y ago

TSMC has had brilliant success, but this kind of work culture tends to negatively affect creativity and agility. TSMC seems to have found some way to either avoid that or compensate for it, possibly by having the ability to hire only the top technical talent in the territory/country. And moving forward, people are starting to realize the risk of having TSMC manufacture everything in Taiwan, given how little competition they have. If TSMC wouldn't start to move some of their production abroad, they would risk facing import restrictions to western countries or (as already happened) government subsidies to local fabs. To retain their market share, they were probably forced to set up some fabs abroad. In the end, I think it's really good for those new countries to have TSMC set up fabs in their countries, both since it guarantees that some production stays available in the case of a war, but also because the TSMC workers will gradually naturalize in the US or Europe and start to work for companies like Intel or ASML and contribute to crosspollination of ideas abilities. Short term though, cultural conflicts is exactly what one would expect. It's probably very similar to what Western companies experienced when first setting up shops in China or India. In the beginning Western managers would try to have the locals behave like Western employees when it came to initiative and willingness to "say it as it is" when managers were giving impossible orders. Over time many would learn that finding really good local managers able to bridge the east/west culture gap could be really helpful. I'm guessing TSMC will need to do the same thing. Find Western managers (for instance second generation Asians) able to understand both cultures, so they can deal with local employees the way they're used to while also able to work productively with upper management (who would presumably still be Taiwanese).