It feels like it's going to be closer than that. People always forget that GPT4 and Opus have the advantage of behind-the-curtain tool use that you just can't

It feels like it's going to be closer than that. People always forget that GPT4 and Opus have the advantage of behind-the-curtain tool use that you just can't see, so you don't know how much of a knowledge or reasoning leg-up they're getting from their internal tooling ecosystem. They're not really directly comparable to a raw LLM downloaded from HF. What we need is a standardised open harness for open source LLMs to sit in that gives them both access to tools and the ability to write their own, and that's (comparatively speaking) a much easier job than training up another raw frontier LLM: it's just code, and they can write a lot of it.