3 ms·
"a bubble doesn't imply that there's no opportunity, or even that there's no revolution" I don't disagree. "So when I say we seem to be in an advertising bubb
by jonnathanson 14y ago
"a bubble doesn't imply that there's no opportunity, or even that there's no revolution"
I don't disagree.
"So when I say we seem to be in an advertising bubble, it's not a statement that there isn't a revolution in advertising coming that somebody is going to profit from, it's a statement that it isn't coming at the pace people like Facebook are promising, nor can it sustain that level of investment profitably."
Again, I think we're in complete agreement here.
"If the bubble pops they'll get hit, but I have every confidence they'll survive and thrive, because they definitely have real value, just as Amazon has survived and thrived after the last bubble."
True, which may actually make Google a fantastically cheap buy if the ad bubble pops and they take a momentary hit. Their fundamentals are solid and aren't going away anytime soon -- unless, of course, Facebook gets its act together and cannibalizes Google's ad dollars. While I think that's distinctly possible -- and Google has been anxious about it for years -- it seems that the threat isn't as immiment as once expected. The threat still exists, however. And maybe, in a weird way, the recent fiasco with Facebook's IPO will actually buy Facebook some "air cover" for awhile -- allowing it to develop killer ad products under the radar, surprising everyone with their rollout. (I think this must be the thesis of anyone still holding onto Facebook stock right now).