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It would be remarkable if the software world were to suddenly depart the US, because a temporarily-hostile regulatory climate made certain startups migrate else

It would be remarkable if the software world were to suddenly depart the US, because a temporarily-hostile regulatory climate made certain startups migrate elsewhere, and they became wildly successful there. I don't think it's crazy to worry about that happening here and now, is it? (Sure: the US government seems to act very friendly to one startup, OpenAI—but that's not the same as being friendly to OpenAI's competitors—it's sort of the opposite. OpenAI creating regulatory moats in the US is also OpenAI making the US a comparatively unattractive jurisdiction for everyone else..)

vineyardmike 3y ago
Tech specifically is dependent on venture capital because it requires upfront costs and produces something that is not a valuable asset in liquidation. This basically guarantees that tech will go somewhere with large liquid capital markets... of which the US is the largest by huge margin. That said, there is ample indication that companies will continue to outsource to foreign talent (eg. Google laying off California workers and hiring Indians). Between outsourcing and remote work, it's increasingly possible to start a business in one location, but employee people globally. I think the real outcome, which we're already seeing, is that companies pay for their training content. It fully integrates into the existing venture system ("simply" raise more money), integrates into existing laws, and feeds into the existing tech economy. In order for the startup ecosystem to leave the US, there would need to be either free-flowing checks rivaling the US or a dramatic regulatory change. Japan just doesn't have either, even with this new policy.
- trilbyglens 3y ago
  Not to mention local talent and experience pools, which are what almost everyone overlooks when they talk about a "new silicon valley" popping up someplace else, be that Berlin or London or whatever. Those places simply don't have the people or the culture to build a thriving tech scene at the same scale and velocity that SV does.

vineyardmike 3y ago

Tech specifically is dependent on venture capital because it requires upfront costs and produces something that is not a valuable asset in liquidation. This basically guarantees that tech will go somewhere with large liquid capital markets... of which the US is the largest by huge margin. That said, there is ample indication that companies will continue to outsource to foreign talent (eg. Google laying off California workers and hiring Indians). Between outsourcing and remote work, it's increasingly possible to start a business in one location, but employee people globally. I think the real outcome, which we're already seeing, is that companies pay for their training content. It fully integrates into the existing venture system ("simply" raise more money), integrates into existing laws, and feeds into the existing tech economy. In order for the startup ecosystem to leave the US, there would need to be either free-flowing checks rivaling the US or a dramatic regulatory change. Japan just doesn't have either, even with this new policy.

trilbyglens 3y ago
Not to mention local talent and experience pools, which are what almost everyone overlooks when they talk about a "new silicon valley" popping up someplace else, be that Berlin or London or whatever. Those places simply don't have the people or the culture to build a thriving tech scene at the same scale and velocity that SV does.