4 ms·

“Ever growing world population” - isn’t demographic growth in decline?

gruez 2y ago
The rate of growth is dropping, but that doesn't mean the population hasn't stopped rising. As an analogy, a car that is slowing down is still moving forward.
- fbdab103 2y ago
  I do not think that is true. Many nations have birthrates under the magical 2.1 required for population maintenance. I have not seen stats that say we are something like 2.6->2.5. US is ~1.8 Korea is 0.78
  - schoen 2y ago
    That's not true for the world population yet, though!
    - fbdab103 2y ago
      Heh. Silly American thoughts. This site[0] says Global birthrate is around 17.3. However, it has been dropping ~1% a year. It was 19.3 in 2014 and today it is 17.3. So indeed growing more slowly, but a strong trendline downwards. Table copied and limited to the decades: Year Birth Rate Growth Rate 2024 17.299 -0.940% 2020 18.077 -1.120% 2010 19.991 -0.870% 2000 21.733 -1.090% 1990 26.094 -2.400% 1980 28.192 -0.530% 1970 32.995 -1.520% 1960 35.346 -0.110% 1950 37.844 0.000% [0] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/birth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/wor...
      - Zod666 2y ago
        You started with fertility rate and switched to birth rate. The world fertility rate is 2.4 so just a bit above the maintenance 2.1 level. But in pretty much all developed countries the fertility rate is well below replacement rates and no signs of it levelling off. In developed countries, more and more the norm is to not have children, or fewer of them later and later in live. Personally I don't think it's a good thing when we start closing schools cause there's not enough children to attend them but that's just me.
dools 2y ago
We will add about 3.5b people in the next 26 years and then it will level off
- sojournerc 2y ago
  According to some models... Why do you state predictions as though they are fact?
  - dools 2y ago
    I said “about 3.5b”. In the context of a statement that we have an “ever growing population” does it really make a difference if it’s 2.5b or 4.5b?
    - sojournerc 2y ago
      Um... Yes!? That's +-1bln (the population of India) you're talking about. If you don't see a difference there, I don't know what to tell you
      - dools 2y ago
        OP said: growth is declining in response to the copy about an “ever growing population” I said: we will add about 3.5b then level off, implying that the population, for all intents and purposes, is ever growing You said: but maybe it’s not 3.5b! I said: in the context of “ever growing” what’s the difference? I stand by that comment. Adding 2.5b in the next 26 years or 4.5b can both be considered “ever growing”. That the population level will dramatically level off at that point is not in dispute. Absent some extinction level event which will render solar foods ability to produce protein irrelevant I really don’t see why the choice of model has an impact on my point.
Brajeshwar 2y ago
Well, I don't think so. We, humans, are growing pretty fast - https://www.worldometers.info https://www.worldometers.info

The rate of growth is dropping, but that doesn't mean the population hasn't stopped rising. As an analogy, a car that is slowing down is still moving forward.

fbdab103 2y ago
I do not think that is true. Many nations have birthrates under the magical 2.1 required for population maintenance. I have not seen stats that say we are something like 2.6->2.5. US is ~1.8 Korea is 0.78
- schoen 2y ago
  That's not true for the world population yet, though!
  - fbdab103 2y ago
    Heh. Silly American thoughts. This site[0] says Global birthrate is around 17.3. However, it has been dropping ~1% a year. It was 19.3 in 2014 and today it is 17.3. So indeed growing more slowly, but a strong trendline downwards. Table copied and limited to the decades: Year Birth Rate Growth Rate 2024 17.299 -0.940% 2020 18.077 -1.120% 2010 19.991 -0.870% 2000 21.733 -1.090% 1990 26.094 -2.400% 1980 28.192 -0.530% 1970 32.995 -1.520% 1960 35.346 -0.110% 1950 37.844 0.000% [0] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/birth-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/wor...
    - Zod666 2y ago
      You started with fertility rate and switched to birth rate. The world fertility rate is 2.4 so just a bit above the maintenance 2.1 level. But in pretty much all developed countries the fertility rate is well below replacement rates and no signs of it levelling off. In developed countries, more and more the norm is to not have children, or fewer of them later and later in live. Personally I don't think it's a good thing when we start closing schools cause there's not enough children to attend them but that's just me.

dools 2y ago

We will add about 3.5b people in the next 26 years and then it will level off

sojournerc 2y ago
According to some models... Why do you state predictions as though they are fact?
- dools 2y ago
  I said “about 3.5b”. In the context of a statement that we have an “ever growing population” does it really make a difference if it’s 2.5b or 4.5b?
  - sojournerc 2y ago
    Um... Yes!? That's +-1bln (the population of India) you're talking about. If you don't see a difference there, I don't know what to tell you
    - dools 2y ago
      OP said: growth is declining in response to the copy about an “ever growing population” I said: we will add about 3.5b then level off, implying that the population, for all intents and purposes, is ever growing You said: but maybe it’s not 3.5b! I said: in the context of “ever growing” what’s the difference? I stand by that comment. Adding 2.5b in the next 26 years or 4.5b can both be considered “ever growing”. That the population level will dramatically level off at that point is not in dispute. Absent some extinction level event which will render solar foods ability to produce protein irrelevant I really don’t see why the choice of model has an impact on my point.

Brajeshwar 2y ago

Well, I don't think so. We, humans, are growing pretty fast - https://www.worldometers.info https://www.worldometers.info