4 ms·

Morena is slated to win the election in June because of the perception that infrastructure projects are getting done. Sheinbaum will want to get re-elected, and

Morena is slated to win the election in June because of the perception that infrastructure projects are getting done. Sheinbaum will want to get re-elected, and if the railway gets robbed that will be difficult. It's a lot easier to protect a railway than to create a good civil society with jobs for millions of people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Transformation#Infrastructure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Transformation#Infrastr...

AtlasBarfed 2y ago
Whether it be by demographics, credit collapse, Taiwan invastion, or just authoritarian incompetence, the world and especially the US are moving away from China-centric manufacturing. The US needs to get its drug war policy in line, but so much is on the line that I think the cartels are going to become a point of "special emphasis" in the coming decade. Mexico is going to become the center of manufacturing for the US in all likelihood. The cartel/drug civil war will come to an end as part of a broad sweep of investment and interest by the United States. I just don't see the cartels maintaining their political/corruption power when the stakes become so much higher. The cartels either need to legitimize, or they'll probably get a healthy dose of US military forces attention and be ground to dust.
sofixa 2y ago
For those not intimately familiar with Mexican politics: Morena is a political party (according to Wikipedia, "left wing and anti-neoliberal"). The current president of Mexico is from them Sheinbaum is the current governor of Mexico city, and candidate and frontrunner for the upcoming presidential elections. Note: Mexico doesn't do presidential reelections - even temporary holders of the post can never run for or hold it again. They had a number of civil wars and related fights around this so it's taken very seriously.

AtlasBarfed 2y ago

Whether it be by demographics, credit collapse, Taiwan invastion, or just authoritarian incompetence, the world and especially the US are moving away from China-centric manufacturing. The US needs to get its drug war policy in line, but so much is on the line that I think the cartels are going to become a point of "special emphasis" in the coming decade. Mexico is going to become the center of manufacturing for the US in all likelihood. The cartel/drug civil war will come to an end as part of a broad sweep of investment and interest by the United States. I just don't see the cartels maintaining their political/corruption power when the stakes become so much higher. The cartels either need to legitimize, or they'll probably get a healthy dose of US military forces attention and be ground to dust.

sofixa 2y ago

For those not intimately familiar with Mexican politics: Morena is a political party (according to Wikipedia, "left wing and anti-neoliberal"). The current president of Mexico is from them Sheinbaum is the current governor of Mexico city, and candidate and frontrunner for the upcoming presidential elections. Note: Mexico doesn't do presidential reelections - even temporary holders of the post can never run for or hold it again. They had a number of civil wars and related fights around this so it's taken very seriously.