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I don't think that "as early as 2025" is dishonest regarding the measurements and facts. Sure, the headline is written in a way that draws attention, but it is
by moritzwarhier 3y ago
I don't think that "as early as 2025" is dishonest regarding the measurements and facts.
Sure, the headline is written in a way that draws attention, but it is not dishonest clickbait or written to mislead, IMO.
Others here have hinted at the so-called "hot-model" fallacy, which is relevant to the timeline. [^1]
Apart from that, the article does make clear that "collapse" can be a gradual process.
Even climate change effects that hit very suddenly in a climatological sense can easily spread out over hundreds of years.
This does not in any way rule out tipping points with extreme changes that wreck ecosystems, e.g. average temperatures dropping or rising by 10 degrees Celsius over 20 years in some regions.
[1] Sabine Hossenfelder has a great video on this topic, should be findable by querying "climate sensitivity".
The search results I find are mostly (affirmative)
statements of that "hot model Problem", such as this article: https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-impacts-global-warming https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-...
I am not a climate scientist, but I have heard the claim that the models that best model 2020-2024 (especially 2023-24) disprortionately often fall into the category of having been dismissed for being "too extreme" before.