The promise of Instruction per Second scaling forever did stop being super-exponential. Instead of CPU based Instructions per Second we have continued scaling c

The promise of Instruction per Second scaling forever did stop being super-exponential. Instead of CPU based Instructions per Second we have continued scaling compute with GPU based Floating-point Operations Per Second which don't exactly have a 1:1 equivalence with instructions but are close enough. Nvidia released the "first" GPU in 1999 so it's not too surprising that this guy wasn't thinking in those terms in 1998. That's why Kurzweil and Bostrom used FLOPS in their extrapolations. They also end up in the neighborhood of 2020s/2030s in their later predictions in the 2000s. With that in mind we are currently at 1 billion GigaFLOPS for the largest super computer in 2023. And the trendline since the 90's has kept up with the prediction made in the post. Although we can't exactly say 1 GigaFLOPS = 1000 MIPS. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/supercomputer-power-flops?time=earliest..2023 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/supercomputer-power-flops...