3 ms·

Ukraine is especially curious example. They used have nukes, but gave them up for a piece of paper, where one of the signatory attacked them and the other took

Ukraine is especially curious example. They used have nukes, but gave them up for a piece of paper, where one of the signatory attacked them and the other took months to start acting. Iran would need to be insane to give up their nuclear program and we could actually see Eastern European countries coming together to build their own nukes if USA will continue to be unreliable ally. Sanctions be damned.

paulmd 2y ago
Change in political control is a possibility in any democracy. AfD could hypothetically take power in Germany at some point - at least enough to stall things out “until the situation is clear”/“until Ukraine handles their Nazi problem” etc, and then they’re suddenly “not a reliable ally” either. Like I understand what you’re saying, but you’re also asking for basically a dictatorship in practice. Political winds can always change, and that’s something that cannot and should not be entirely forestalled. (Although for example drug laws kinda do this - the us is beholden to international law on scheduling etc - we just don’t do that for military situations to the same extent as we use it for jailing minorities. But nato-style alliances with trigger conditions etc are a rarity, and ultimately still subject to the parties having to actually take action. If a nato trigger event has taken place, and everyone simply ignores it… what then? If trump says Slovenia are low-energy losers who incited the conflict themselves, therefore nato doesn’t apply (which is iirc more or less his stance on Ukraine during this conflict)… what do you propose doing about it? Code is not law, ethereum smart contracts can’t drop bombs.) The rise of Russian-aligned parties and neofascist groups within western culture is the problem. And while there’s some root causes, like letting party-controlled media sources spread actual libel and falsehoods, once the neofascist party is getting 30%, or once trump takes the presidency, it’s too late, now they get the color of state power and state legitimacy, even as they dismantle the next election etc. The real problem is that Russia and china are using western liberal values against us. Only westerners are concerned about protecting the speech of Nazis, or the right of Fox News to broadcast lies that the election was stolen, etc. China and Russia don’t have to care. And the fact that we have to work our politics within this framework that coddles vicious and violent movements and rhetoric is an angle that they can exploit to disrupt us. Like yes, if you allow china to have their fair say in media, and allow them to purchase a major media outlet to spread that perspective, you’re going to get china-backed media causing disruption to domestic US politics. It’s just more controversial to say it with political parties than with tiktok, but, Fox News and newsmax really ought to go too, for all the same reasons. And as long as you can come up with a veneer of American control the problem will remain.
- Log_out_ 2y ago
  Did you really just imagine Neonazis taking over and then complaining about Neonazis in another country. Bizarre dissonance..
  - paulmd 2y ago
    Yes, “appealing to the public” is a thing. Like surely even trump would have had at least an excuse on paper for choosing to favor Russia over Ukraine - and azov battalion is a good one, because hey, there really are Nazis. Absolutely “but what about azov” would have been a thing and you’d have to be uninformed to think otherwise. The bizarre part here is you imagining Nazi logic has to make sense, when it notably does not, ever, have to make sense. Otherwise all the internal contradictions would fall apart - the only true tenent is strength and dominance. > Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past. Like… never heard of “the night of the long knives” I guess. Fascists are only buddies up until they’re not. In short: no, I don’t think a Russian-aligned fascist group would care in the least about stepping on a Ukrainian fascist group on the way to the top in their conquest of Ukraine.

paulmd 2y ago

Change in political control is a possibility in any democracy. AfD could hypothetically take power in Germany at some point - at least enough to stall things out “until the situation is clear”/“until Ukraine handles their Nazi problem” etc, and then they’re suddenly “not a reliable ally” either. Like I understand what you’re saying, but you’re also asking for basically a dictatorship in practice. Political winds can always change, and that’s something that cannot and should not be entirely forestalled. (Although for example drug laws kinda do this - the us is beholden to international law on scheduling etc - we just don’t do that for military situations to the same extent as we use it for jailing minorities. But nato-style alliances with trigger conditions etc are a rarity, and ultimately still subject to the parties having to actually take action. If a nato trigger event has taken place, and everyone simply ignores it… what then? If trump says Slovenia are low-energy losers who incited the conflict themselves, therefore nato doesn’t apply (which is iirc more or less his stance on Ukraine during this conflict)… what do you propose doing about it? Code is not law, ethereum smart contracts can’t drop bombs.) The rise of Russian-aligned parties and neofascist groups within western culture is the problem. And while there’s some root causes, like letting party-controlled media sources spread actual libel and falsehoods, once the neofascist party is getting 30%, or once trump takes the presidency, it’s too late, now they get the color of state power and state legitimacy, even as they dismantle the next election etc. The real problem is that Russia and china are using western liberal values against us. Only westerners are concerned about protecting the speech of Nazis, or the right of Fox News to broadcast lies that the election was stolen, etc. China and Russia don’t have to care. And the fact that we have to work our politics within this framework that coddles vicious and violent movements and rhetoric is an angle that they can exploit to disrupt us. Like yes, if you allow china to have their fair say in media, and allow them to purchase a major media outlet to spread that perspective, you’re going to get china-backed media causing disruption to domestic US politics. It’s just more controversial to say it with political parties than with tiktok, but, Fox News and newsmax really ought to go too, for all the same reasons. And as long as you can come up with a veneer of American control the problem will remain.

Log_out_ 2y ago
Did you really just imagine Neonazis taking over and then complaining about Neonazis in another country. Bizarre dissonance..
- paulmd 2y ago
  Yes, “appealing to the public” is a thing. Like surely even trump would have had at least an excuse on paper for choosing to favor Russia over Ukraine - and azov battalion is a good one, because hey, there really are Nazis. Absolutely “but what about azov” would have been a thing and you’d have to be uninformed to think otherwise. The bizarre part here is you imagining Nazi logic has to make sense, when it notably does not, ever, have to make sense. Otherwise all the internal contradictions would fall apart - the only true tenent is strength and dominance. > Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past. Like… never heard of “the night of the long knives” I guess. Fascists are only buddies up until they’re not. In short: no, I don’t think a Russian-aligned fascist group would care in the least about stepping on a Ukrainian fascist group on the way to the top in their conquest of Ukraine.