A whole lot of words just to say that you can make any assumptions you want and get any predictions you want, in the face of ambiguous unreliable information. B

A whole lot of words just to say that you can make any assumptions you want and get any predictions you want, in the face of ambiguous unreliable information. But the author doesn't even realize that's what they are arguing. I'm surprised that HN is so quiet on Sunday morning that 8 pts is enough to make #5 frontpage post for an article that fails the Wikipedia Test (”is the article better than the Wikipedia post on the same topic?”) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy