Past returns do not indicate future performance. Technical innovation is slowing down, not speeding up. Raw, usable linear CPU performance at the fingertips o

Past returns do not indicate future performance. Technical innovation is slowing down, not speeding up. Raw, usable linear CPU performance at the fingertips of normal humans using personal computers has been essentially flat for half a decade, with the majority of material perf changes coming in the I/O subsystem, and yet still the CPU sits idle for the vast majority of its life. I'm probably wrong, but it's still a reasonable position: we've seen technical stagnations before. I'm simply (and probably incorrectly) projecting the current trend I see, as an end user of technology: raw straigh-ahead cpu perf is stagnating and, unless I see real progress on AI (which I don't) I'm skeptical that a lot more of it will help most people doing most things, unless we are talking a lot lot more. If some of the more exotic technologies get practical and cheap, I'm happy to be wrong, but I think it's important to note that Moore's Law was observational: he was describing what he saw happening rather than envisioning it. We no longer are seeing what he saw. A phase change may fix that, but that's very different than what we've been mining for the last half century, and much harder to project out.