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Why do they have a bleak outlook? The broader economy is strong, and their long term employment prospects are excellent, with many people leaving the workforce

Why do they have a bleak outlook? The broader economy is strong, and their long term employment prospects are excellent, with many people leaving the workforce and productivity gains increasing overall wealth.

ajmurmann 3y ago
The negative economic sentiment is very common and IMO entirely manufactured because it sells. Actual economic data is excellent. It kinda makes Haidt's point. Traditional media clearly isn't helping either though.
- maxerickson 3y ago
  I can see being concerned about the spiraling cost of housing, but that's a problem with a relatively straightforward solution.
  - ajmurmann 3y ago
    Housing is definitely an issue. The obvious solution to that are probably my biggest policy issue. That said, homeownership rates in the US are close to an all-time high.
  - readyman 3y ago
    And it's a problem that predominates literally every other aspect of one's life, and one's children's lives. Discussing it as though it's just one little exception is not just out of touch; it's practically insanity.
- readyman 3y ago
  GDP is not a meaningful measurement unless you somehow believe in nonsense trickle-down economics of the most extreme degree.
  - verteu 3y ago
    But inflation-adjusted median & 10th percentile wages have grown L20yrs, (per my other comment in the thread), right?
    - readyman 3y ago
      Sounds meaningful for the 10th percentile, but what about everybody else? I assume this is supposed to be a joke?
      - ajmurmann 3y ago
        Can you provide a single metric that's bad right now? Employment is close to a record high, PPP median income is up. Housing cost isn't great, but homeownership rates are still as high as ever. It's mostly vibes that are down. Edit: the parent also called out median comp being up. Again, the persistence of the negative vibes without any actual data reinforces how the media now negatively impacts everyone's attitudes and ultimately mental health
        verteu 3y ago
        It does seem that US COLA-wages are growing more slowly than Europe (though better than Canada), while our stock market outperforms. So one could make a claim that more profits should go to labor, rather than capital. Some numbers (all the usual "mean-vs-median" caveats apply, though IME it rarely changes much): France mean wages (2001-2022): 41706/26275 = 1.59 (2.2%/yr) France CPI (2001-2022): 108.74/80.39 = 1.35 (1.4%/yr) GB mean weekly wages (2001-2022): 599/321 = 1.87 (3.0%/yr!) GB CPI: 114.6/73.5 (2001-2022): = 1.56 (2.14%/yr) Canada mean wages (2001-2022): 14,176.4/10,405.1 = 1.36 (1.5%/yr) Canada CPI (2001-2022): 146.3/96.8 = 1.51 (2.0%/yr) https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/ https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/ https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/time... https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wages-france-y-on-y-in-euros/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wa...
verteu 3y ago
My guess: Negativity makes great clickbait & political propaganda. I agree the numbers look great -- Added stats in a sibling comment above.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
davisr 3y ago
Something like 30% of 30-year-olds still live with their parents. Almost 40% of American adults cannot afford a $400 emergency expense. People are suffering and you're indifferent because you exist in a different class.
- verteu 3y ago
  Appreciate the reply. For the curious, here's a source for the emergency expenses number (32% can't afford a $500 expense with their savings per Table 12): https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-expenses.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-we...
  - wumeow 3y ago
    Notice that really only 13% of households can’t absolutely afford a $400 dollar expense, and the difference between the 32% for $500 vs the 40% for $400 > Sixty-eight percent of adults said they could pay an expense of at least $500 using only their current savings (table 12). This is a somewhat larger share than the 63 percent of adults who said they would pay an unexpected $400 expense with cash or the equivalent, suggesting that some people do choose to pay with other methods, even if they have cash savings available to them.
- IAmGraydon 3y ago
  I'm not clear on how you're linking the stats (which are, BTW, off by about 20%) you just posted to the state of the economy. Can you clarify? 40% of people not saving $400 doesn't mean the economy is bad. It could mean they don't know how to save the money they're earning. Perhaps something else is wrong.
  - davisr 3y ago
    > One-in-three U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents’ home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data from 2021. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/03/in-the-u-s-and-abroad-more-young-adults-are-living-with-their-parents/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/03/in-the-u-... > Nearly 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-finances-americans-cant-cover-emergency-expense-federal-reserve/ https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-fi... > What a $400 emergency expense tells us about the economy https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2021/what-a-400-dollar-emergency-expense-tells-us-about-the-economy https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2021/what-a-400-dolla... And the master of them all: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
deleted 3y ago
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ajmurmann 3y ago

The negative economic sentiment is very common and IMO entirely manufactured because it sells. Actual economic data is excellent. It kinda makes Haidt's point. Traditional media clearly isn't helping either though.

maxerickson 3y ago
I can see being concerned about the spiraling cost of housing, but that's a problem with a relatively straightforward solution.
- ajmurmann 3y ago
  Housing is definitely an issue. The obvious solution to that are probably my biggest policy issue. That said, homeownership rates in the US are close to an all-time high.
- readyman 3y ago
  And it's a problem that predominates literally every other aspect of one's life, and one's children's lives. Discussing it as though it's just one little exception is not just out of touch; it's practically insanity.
readyman 3y ago
GDP is not a meaningful measurement unless you somehow believe in nonsense trickle-down economics of the most extreme degree.
- verteu 3y ago
  But inflation-adjusted median & 10th percentile wages have grown L20yrs, (per my other comment in the thread), right?
  - readyman 3y ago
    Sounds meaningful for the 10th percentile, but what about everybody else? I assume this is supposed to be a joke?
    - ajmurmann 3y ago
      Can you provide a single metric that's bad right now? Employment is close to a record high, PPP median income is up. Housing cost isn't great, but homeownership rates are still as high as ever. It's mostly vibes that are down. Edit: the parent also called out median comp being up. Again, the persistence of the negative vibes without any actual data reinforces how the media now negatively impacts everyone's attitudes and ultimately mental health
      - verteu 3y ago
        It does seem that US COLA-wages are growing more slowly than Europe (though better than Canada), while our stock market outperforms. So one could make a claim that more profits should go to labor, rather than capital. Some numbers (all the usual "mean-vs-median" caveats apply, though IME it rarely changes much): France mean wages (2001-2022): 41706/26275 = 1.59 (2.2%/yr) France CPI (2001-2022): 108.74/80.39 = 1.35 (1.4%/yr) GB mean weekly wages (2001-2022): 599/321 = 1.87 (3.0%/yr!) GB CPI: 114.6/73.5 (2001-2022): = 1.56 (2.14%/yr) Canada mean wages (2001-2022): 14,176.4/10,405.1 = 1.36 (1.5%/yr) Canada CPI (2001-2022): 146.3/96.8 = 1.51 (2.0%/yr) https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/ https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/ https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/time... https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wages-france-y-on-y-in-euros/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/416204/average-annual-wa...

verteu 3y ago

My guess: Negativity makes great clickbait & political propaganda. I agree the numbers look great -- Added stats in a sibling comment above.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

davisr 3y ago

Something like 30% of 30-year-olds still live with their parents. Almost 40% of American adults cannot afford a $400 emergency expense. People are suffering and you're indifferent because you exist in a different class.

verteu 3y ago
Appreciate the reply. For the curious, here's a source for the emergency expenses number (32% can't afford a $500 expense with their savings per Table 12): https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2022-expenses.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-economic-we...
- wumeow 3y ago
  Notice that really only 13% of households can’t absolutely afford a $400 dollar expense, and the difference between the 32% for $500 vs the 40% for $400 > Sixty-eight percent of adults said they could pay an expense of at least $500 using only their current savings (table 12). This is a somewhat larger share than the 63 percent of adults who said they would pay an unexpected $400 expense with cash or the equivalent, suggesting that some people do choose to pay with other methods, even if they have cash savings available to them.
IAmGraydon 3y ago
I'm not clear on how you're linking the stats (which are, BTW, off by about 20%) you just posted to the state of the economy. Can you clarify? 40% of people not saving $400 doesn't mean the economy is bad. It could mean they don't know how to save the money they're earning. Perhaps something else is wrong.
- davisr 3y ago
  > One-in-three U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents’ home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data from 2021. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/03/in-the-u-s-and-abroad-more-young-adults-are-living-with-their-parents/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/03/in-the-u-... > Nearly 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-finances-americans-cant-cover-emergency-expense-federal-reserve/ https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-fi... > What a $400 emergency expense tells us about the economy https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2021/what-a-400-dollar-emergency-expense-tells-us-about-the-economy https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2021/what-a-400-dolla... And the master of them all: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

deleted 3y ago

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