3 ms·
Hmm, I think this criticism maybe has a kernel of truth, but - I think the "ergodicity" concept is kind of being abused. As I understand the term, ergodicity d
by abeppu 3y ago
Hmm, I think this criticism maybe has a kernel of truth, but
- I think the "ergodicity" concept is kind of being abused. As I understand the term, ergodicity describes systems whose dynamics cause them to eventually visit all states in a way that lines up with some probability distribution. In MCMC one uses this to argue that a chain that runs long enough can be used to generate samples from a distribution.
- But the response to his actual concern I think should be something more like income pooling. E.g. my understanding was there was some movement towards this for minor league baseball players, who have a modest chance of really large incomes. I think poker players also make similar arrangements. But critically, pools make sense when all the participants in each pool have pretty equivalent odds of making getting a large payout. With very early founders of course smart, reasonable people could have wildly different ideas of who is in equivalent tiers.
- You could try to ask a bunch of informed investors to rate or rank, and hope that average estimates are good -- but if those investors don't also have the opportunity to invest in a way commensurate with their ratings, they have no incentive to be accurate.
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/25/773532516/some-baseball-players-are-entering-income-pooling-agreements-to-fix-imbalance https://www.npr.org/2019/10/25/773532516/some-baseball-playe...