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https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-launch-commercial-driverless-service-this-year/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-ai

by kgwgk 3y ago

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-launch-commercial-driverless-service-this-year/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-... "Even if Waymo's schedule slips a few months and it introduces a self-driving car service in the middle of 2018 instead of late 2017, that will still give the company a multiple-year head start over most of its rivals. And it would confound skeptics who insist that full self-driving technology is still years away." https://www.ft.com/content/3355f5b0-539d-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e https://www.ft.com/content/3355f5b0-539d-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e... Waymo forecast to capture 60% of driverless market Group’s dominance by 2030 will force carmakers to adopt its technology, says report Investment bank UBS estimated global revenues from self-driving technology by 2030 will be up to $2.8tn, with Alphabet’s Waymo unit the global leader.

mlyle 3y ago
Sure, everyone knows Waymo's schedule has slipped. I read the comment as saying that Waymo's product itself is not living up to expectations. It looks like it's slowly but steadily expanding, at least in sunnier climes, and offering a decent user experience.
- kgwgk 3y ago
  Ok, maybe the as-of-2024 product is living up to the 2018-horizon expectations from 2017 (as long as your expectations were not at the high end of the range at the time).
  - mlyle 3y ago
    Yah, the question is whether we are getting there. No one in 2030 will care whether it was delivered in 2026 or 2020.
    - kgwgk 3y ago
      The people who didn't get a driving license in 2017 because what was the point if cars would drive themselves in a couple of years may care. Even more so if they finally have to wait to 2050. Anyway, the question was about expectations - and those came with a timeline.
      - mlyle 3y ago
        > Anyway, the question was about expectations - and those came with a timeline. The mention was of a "collapse" in the space, too-- which can't be true if we're still getting there. I expect the timeframe of 2030 is when we get most of the way there. Even exponential growth takes time to reach a big world. Most of what Waymo has left to do is rollout.
qznc 3y ago
Waymo does not sell cars. They are in a different business. I don’t really know the numbers but Waymo adds something like 50k worth of hardware into the cars. That is not a viable approach for consumer cars (Mercedes, Tesla, etc).
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  That hardware cost will drop eventually as it becomes commoditized and competing providers emerge. We're still pretty early in the game.
  - mlyle 3y ago
    Maybe. Not everything ever manages to make it to low cost, high volume- either because there is no reasonable path to making it that cheap, or because there are not sufficiently large markets in the in-between prices.
prepend 3y ago
That article is from 7 years ago. It seems unwise to make a judgement for today based on it.

by kgwgk 3y ago

mlyle 3y ago

Sure, everyone knows Waymo's schedule has slipped. I read the comment as saying that Waymo's product itself is not living up to expectations. It looks like it's slowly but steadily expanding, at least in sunnier climes, and offering a decent user experience.

kgwgk 3y ago
Ok, maybe the as-of-2024 product is living up to the 2018-horizon expectations from 2017 (as long as your expectations were not at the high end of the range at the time).
- mlyle 3y ago
  Yah, the question is whether we are getting there. No one in 2030 will care whether it was delivered in 2026 or 2020.
  - kgwgk 3y ago
    The people who didn't get a driving license in 2017 because what was the point if cars would drive themselves in a couple of years may care. Even more so if they finally have to wait to 2050. Anyway, the question was about expectations - and those came with a timeline.
    - mlyle 3y ago
      > Anyway, the question was about expectations - and those came with a timeline. The mention was of a "collapse" in the space, too-- which can't be true if we're still getting there. I expect the timeframe of 2030 is when we get most of the way there. Even exponential growth takes time to reach a big world. Most of what Waymo has left to do is rollout.

qznc 3y ago

Waymo does not sell cars. They are in a different business. I don’t really know the numbers but Waymo adds something like 50k worth of hardware into the cars. That is not a viable approach for consumer cars (Mercedes, Tesla, etc).

SoftTalker 3y ago
That hardware cost will drop eventually as it becomes commoditized and competing providers emerge. We're still pretty early in the game.
- mlyle 3y ago
  Maybe. Not everything ever manages to make it to low cost, high volume- either because there is no reasonable path to making it that cheap, or because there are not sufficiently large markets in the in-between prices.

prepend 3y ago

That article is from 7 years ago. It seems unwise to make a judgement for today based on it.