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> As of April 11, there were 65 Mercedes autonomous vehicles available for sale in California ... One of those has since been sold, which marks the first sale o

by harles 2y ago

> As of April 11, there were 65 Mercedes autonomous vehicles available for sale in California ... One of those has since been sold, which marks the first sale of an autonomous Mercedes in California ... Those are pretty small numbers and strike me more as them testing the waters. It's neat to see some potential in the space after what felt like a total collapse with Waymo and Tesla especially not living up to expectations. It's not clear how good the tech is here, but it's a political victory for the space if nothing else.

SeanAnderson 2y ago
Mmm, if you said Cruise I'd be on board, but Waymo is my primary mode of transportation around SF these days.
AlotOfReading 2y ago
What are you referring to with Waymo? They were still operating in LA and SF as of this week. Do you mean Cruise (owned by GM)? In any case, the Mercedes system is what's known as a conditionally autonomous system. It can drive itself under specific conditions, but a human is still involved in operating the vehicle as soon as it exits that design domain. Waymo (and Cruise) are fully autonomous systems. Humans are not involved in the control loop and the vehicles will stop if they leave their operational domain. Tesla FSD is not an autonomous system at all and requires a human to always be in control.
- _xivi 2y ago
  > What are you referring to with Waymo? No OP but there were multiple headlines of Waymo incidents just recently - https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/13/waymo-recall-crash-software-self-driving-cars/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/13/waymo-recall-crash-softwar... - https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/7/24065063/waymo-driverless-car-strikes-bicyclist-san-francisco-injuries https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/7/24065063/waymo-driverless-...
- harles 2y ago
  Waymo and Cruise have failed to scale and it doesn't look like they ever will. It's difficult to find a single article with the full context, but around 2017 as Waymo started giving limited rides to the public, everyone though the problem had been solved. There was a flood of startups hoping to be a strong second mover in the space, and then basically nothing. Expectations have shifted over time, but 7 years later and there's been only small incremental progress. > In any case, the Mercedes system is what's known as a conditionally autonomous system. Yes, but it's significant progress if it reaches consumer hands. This sounds like the typical Waymo marketing of "you can't get to Level 4 through Level 3". I bought into this at one point, but Waymo and Cruise have demonstrated that going straight to Level 4 with $100k+ (probably much more than that) of sensors and corresponding maintenance doesn't scale.
  - gmadsen 2y ago
    failed to scale? You can read their public operation plans which outline their plans to scale.
  - ra7 2y ago
    Waymo is the only one actually scaling driverless taxis. They’ve gone from providing public rides in 1 city (Phoenix) to 3 cities (+SF, LA) with a 4th one (+Austin) coming soon. They’ve given more than a million rides, with the majority of them coming in the last year. No one else is doing this. If other companies thought they’d hitch on to Waymo after they started giving rides in 2017, then that’s on them. Because Waymo has been pretty clear that their scaling is going to be methodical and not instantaneous.
    - SoftTalker 2y ago
      "Taxi service in a congested urban area" is probably the market where it makes the most sense. Trips are pretty short, cars stay in the a local area where they have hyper-accurate mapping data, and are likely to quickly find another passenger or can return to a nearby parking/waiting area. Waymo won't keep a monopoly on this forever. There are still high barriers to entry, but they will fall sooner or later. If there is money to be made, competition will come.
pound 2y ago
I'm curious why Waymo is considered to be not living up to expectations? They operate in limited number of places, but seem to be just fine driving there (of course some people will not like them regardless). Tesla - yes, not comparable..
- kgwgk 2y ago
  https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-launch-commercial-driverless-service-this-year/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-... "Even if Waymo's schedule slips a few months and it introduces a self-driving car service in the middle of 2018 instead of late 2017, that will still give the company a multiple-year head start over most of its rivals. And it would confound skeptics who insist that full self-driving technology is still years away." https://www.ft.com/content/3355f5b0-539d-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e https://www.ft.com/content/3355f5b0-539d-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e... Waymo forecast to capture 60% of driverless market Group’s dominance by 2030 will force carmakers to adopt its technology, says report Investment bank UBS estimated global revenues from self-driving technology by 2030 will be up to $2.8tn, with Alphabet’s Waymo unit the global leader.
  - mlyle 2y ago
    Sure, everyone knows Waymo's schedule has slipped. I read the comment as saying that Waymo's product itself is not living up to expectations. It looks like it's slowly but steadily expanding, at least in sunnier climes, and offering a decent user experience.
    - kgwgk 2y ago
      Ok, maybe the as-of-2024 product is living up to the 2018-horizon expectations from 2017 (as long as your expectations were not at the high end of the range at the time).
      - mlyle 2y ago
        Yah, the question is whether we are getting there. No one in 2030 will care whether it was delivered in 2026 or 2020.
homefree 2y ago
Waymo is amazing and has fully replaced Uber for me in SF. They're also expanding to the entire peninsula from SF down to Cupertino - you're out of date on this. Waymo driving in SF is way better than human. It's not timid either. This Mercedes post is marketing - it's not really what people consider autonomous given the constraints. > "Drivers can activate Mercedes's technology, called Drive Pilot, when certain conditions are met, including in heavy traffic jams, during the daytime, on specific California and Nevada freeways, and when the car is traveling less than 40 mph. Drivers can focus on other activities until the vehicle alerts them to resume control. The technology does not work on roads that haven't been pre-approved by Mercedes, including on freeways in other states." The above makes it nearly useless and far less useful than what Tesla has been shipping for years imo.
- bko 2y ago
  How is Waymo pricing compared to Uber or other ride share? I originally thought autonomous cars would greatly reduce costs but considering the tens of billions dumped into these companies, they can't charge lower prices as they have to recoup investments.
  - acchow 2y ago
    If you tip on Uber/Lyft, then Waymo pricing is close (maybe a 5% premium). But during peak hours, Waymo is much more expensive.
  - AlotOfReading 2y ago
    It's a dollar or two more expensive than the corresponding Uber (non-shared) fare in my experience, so a bit less after tips. Keep in mind that the "true" price of these services probably isn't the biggest pricing factor right now. The cost is a way to manage demand, get some additional income, and investigate what the market will bear.
    - bko 2y ago
      I doubt they're profitable though. From Bing: > As of the latest available information, Waymo is not yet profitable. Alphabet’s Q2 2023 earnings report indicated that its “Other Bets” category, which includes Waymo, had revenues of $285 million and an operating loss of $813 million. This was a decrease in operating loss from $1.34 billion in the second quarter of 2022, but still significant. Over the last five years, “Other Bets” has generated $3 billion in cumulative revenue but incurred $20 billion in operating losses, with Waymo constituting the bulk of these losses. I just don't see the end game. Are marginal rides not profitable even at Uber fates? Uber for instance was losing money because they were taking rev from profitable cities to give incentives and build up drivers in the new markets. But Waymo doesn't have that problem. Is it just GPU spend that they can eventually stop?
electrondood 2y ago
"potential in the space?" If you read the article, they essentially just have Tesla Autopilot with self insurance and driver monitoring removed. This "landmark achievement" only works on freeways and under 40 mph.
acchow 2y ago
I took a Waymo this week, no driver in the car. Working great.
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
  Survivor bias! ;)
pb7 2y ago
Grouping Waymo with anyone else including Cruise and Tesla is insane. You don’t know what you’re talking about frankly. Waymo is better than anyone else out there by a mile. Source: I take one daily.
- prepend 2y ago
  Are there human “watchers” in your waymos? Or are they completely autonomous? They just started testing in my city and have humans sitting there not doing anything. So it makes for kind of an uncomfortable ride. Chitchatting with the Uber driver is the worst part of my ride, so I’m looking forward to just robots.
  - sbuttgereit 2y ago
    In SF, all the Waymo rides I've taken are completely autonomous... no watchers in the car. This has been the regular mode of operation here for quite awhile. This isn't to say you won't see Waymo cars with drivers/watchers, but most of those seem to be transiting areas were they don't operate.
  - pb7 2y ago
    Of course there are no people in the car. I can’t take a walk anywhere without seeing at least one Waymo drive by without anyone in the front seat. This is old news. It’s really really funny reading these takes. We’re living in the future and there are still people making predictions about it.
tim333 2y ago
Given that Mercedes is taking responsibility for accidents caused by the system I can see why they would launch cautiously. Less of an issue if it goes wrong.

by harles 2y ago

SeanAnderson 2y ago

Mmm, if you said Cruise I'd be on board, but Waymo is my primary mode of transportation around SF these days.

AlotOfReading 2y ago

What are you referring to with Waymo? They were still operating in LA and SF as of this week. Do you mean Cruise (owned by GM)? In any case, the Mercedes system is what's known as a conditionally autonomous system. It can drive itself under specific conditions, but a human is still involved in operating the vehicle as soon as it exits that design domain. Waymo (and Cruise) are fully autonomous systems. Humans are not involved in the control loop and the vehicles will stop if they leave their operational domain. Tesla FSD is not an autonomous system at all and requires a human to always be in control.

_xivi 2y ago
> What are you referring to with Waymo? No OP but there were multiple headlines of Waymo incidents just recently - https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/13/waymo-recall-crash-software-self-driving-cars/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/13/waymo-recall-crash-softwar... - https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/7/24065063/waymo-driverless-car-strikes-bicyclist-san-francisco-injuries https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/7/24065063/waymo-driverless-...
harles 2y ago
Waymo and Cruise have failed to scale and it doesn't look like they ever will. It's difficult to find a single article with the full context, but around 2017 as Waymo started giving limited rides to the public, everyone though the problem had been solved. There was a flood of startups hoping to be a strong second mover in the space, and then basically nothing. Expectations have shifted over time, but 7 years later and there's been only small incremental progress. > In any case, the Mercedes system is what's known as a conditionally autonomous system. Yes, but it's significant progress if it reaches consumer hands. This sounds like the typical Waymo marketing of "you can't get to Level 4 through Level 3". I bought into this at one point, but Waymo and Cruise have demonstrated that going straight to Level 4 with $100k+ (probably much more than that) of sensors and corresponding maintenance doesn't scale.
- gmadsen 2y ago
  failed to scale? You can read their public operation plans which outline their plans to scale.
- ra7 2y ago
  Waymo is the only one actually scaling driverless taxis. They’ve gone from providing public rides in 1 city (Phoenix) to 3 cities (+SF, LA) with a 4th one (+Austin) coming soon. They’ve given more than a million rides, with the majority of them coming in the last year. No one else is doing this. If other companies thought they’d hitch on to Waymo after they started giving rides in 2017, then that’s on them. Because Waymo has been pretty clear that their scaling is going to be methodical and not instantaneous.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    "Taxi service in a congested urban area" is probably the market where it makes the most sense. Trips are pretty short, cars stay in the a local area where they have hyper-accurate mapping data, and are likely to quickly find another passenger or can return to a nearby parking/waiting area. Waymo won't keep a monopoly on this forever. There are still high barriers to entry, but they will fall sooner or later. If there is money to be made, competition will come.

pound 2y ago

I'm curious why Waymo is considered to be not living up to expectations? They operate in limited number of places, but seem to be just fine driving there (of course some people will not like them regardless). Tesla - yes, not comparable..

kgwgk 2y ago
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-launch-commercial-driverless-service-this-year/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/report-waymo-aiming-to-... "Even if Waymo's schedule slips a few months and it introduces a self-driving car service in the middle of 2018 instead of late 2017, that will still give the company a multiple-year head start over most of its rivals. And it would confound skeptics who insist that full self-driving technology is still years away." https://www.ft.com/content/3355f5b0-539d-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e https://www.ft.com/content/3355f5b0-539d-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e... Waymo forecast to capture 60% of driverless market Group’s dominance by 2030 will force carmakers to adopt its technology, says report Investment bank UBS estimated global revenues from self-driving technology by 2030 will be up to $2.8tn, with Alphabet’s Waymo unit the global leader.
- mlyle 2y ago
  Sure, everyone knows Waymo's schedule has slipped. I read the comment as saying that Waymo's product itself is not living up to expectations. It looks like it's slowly but steadily expanding, at least in sunnier climes, and offering a decent user experience.
  - kgwgk 2y ago
    Ok, maybe the as-of-2024 product is living up to the 2018-horizon expectations from 2017 (as long as your expectations were not at the high end of the range at the time).
    - mlyle 2y ago
      Yah, the question is whether we are getting there. No one in 2030 will care whether it was delivered in 2026 or 2020.

homefree 2y ago

Waymo is amazing and has fully replaced Uber for me in SF. They're also expanding to the entire peninsula from SF down to Cupertino - you're out of date on this. Waymo driving in SF is way better than human. It's not timid either. This Mercedes post is marketing - it's not really what people consider autonomous given the constraints. > "Drivers can activate Mercedes's technology, called Drive Pilot, when certain conditions are met, including in heavy traffic jams, during the daytime, on specific California and Nevada freeways, and when the car is traveling less than 40 mph. Drivers can focus on other activities until the vehicle alerts them to resume control. The technology does not work on roads that haven't been pre-approved by Mercedes, including on freeways in other states." The above makes it nearly useless and far less useful than what Tesla has been shipping for years imo.

bko 2y ago
How is Waymo pricing compared to Uber or other ride share? I originally thought autonomous cars would greatly reduce costs but considering the tens of billions dumped into these companies, they can't charge lower prices as they have to recoup investments.
- acchow 2y ago
  If you tip on Uber/Lyft, then Waymo pricing is close (maybe a 5% premium). But during peak hours, Waymo is much more expensive.
- AlotOfReading 2y ago
  It's a dollar or two more expensive than the corresponding Uber (non-shared) fare in my experience, so a bit less after tips. Keep in mind that the "true" price of these services probably isn't the biggest pricing factor right now. The cost is a way to manage demand, get some additional income, and investigate what the market will bear.
  - bko 2y ago
    I doubt they're profitable though. From Bing: > As of the latest available information, Waymo is not yet profitable. Alphabet’s Q2 2023 earnings report indicated that its “Other Bets” category, which includes Waymo, had revenues of $285 million and an operating loss of $813 million. This was a decrease in operating loss from $1.34 billion in the second quarter of 2022, but still significant. Over the last five years, “Other Bets” has generated $3 billion in cumulative revenue but incurred $20 billion in operating losses, with Waymo constituting the bulk of these losses. I just don't see the end game. Are marginal rides not profitable even at Uber fates? Uber for instance was losing money because they were taking rev from profitable cities to give incentives and build up drivers in the new markets. But Waymo doesn't have that problem. Is it just GPU spend that they can eventually stop?

electrondood 2y ago

"potential in the space?" If you read the article, they essentially just have Tesla Autopilot with self insurance and driver monitoring removed. This "landmark achievement" only works on freeways and under 40 mph.

acchow 2y ago

I took a Waymo this week, no driver in the car. Working great.

HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
Survivor bias! ;)

pb7 2y ago

Grouping Waymo with anyone else including Cruise and Tesla is insane. You don’t know what you’re talking about frankly. Waymo is better than anyone else out there by a mile. Source: I take one daily.

prepend 2y ago
Are there human “watchers” in your waymos? Or are they completely autonomous? They just started testing in my city and have humans sitting there not doing anything. So it makes for kind of an uncomfortable ride. Chitchatting with the Uber driver is the worst part of my ride, so I’m looking forward to just robots.
- sbuttgereit 2y ago
  In SF, all the Waymo rides I've taken are completely autonomous... no watchers in the car. This has been the regular mode of operation here for quite awhile. This isn't to say you won't see Waymo cars with drivers/watchers, but most of those seem to be transiting areas were they don't operate.
- pb7 2y ago
  Of course there are no people in the car. I can’t take a walk anywhere without seeing at least one Waymo drive by without anyone in the front seat. This is old news. It’s really really funny reading these takes. We’re living in the future and there are still people making predictions about it.

tim333 2y ago

Given that Mercedes is taking responsibility for accidents caused by the system I can see why they would launch cautiously. Less of an issue if it goes wrong.