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We’d work harder on finding ways to reduce spread and extend the lifespan of the infected. I think we’d manage. Already HIV and AIDS are highly treatable, and

We’d work harder on finding ways to reduce spread and extend the lifespan of the infected. I think we’d manage. Already HIV and AIDS are highly treatable, and lifespans are measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks.

LinuxBender 3y ago
Already HIV and AIDS are highly treatable Doesn't it cost something like $100k/yr? And if so do insurance companies keep people on their policy for long after they contract it?
- d1sxeyes 3y ago
  I am not sure. In a lot of countries, access to healthcare is not dependent on the wealth of the recipient, or the goodwill of an insurance company.
leptons 3y ago
I think you're missing the point of my comment. When HIV and AIDS were first spreading, nobody knew what it was and it took quite a long time before there was even any acknowledgement that something was wrong. There simply wouldn't be time to invent countermeasures if HIV were airborne, because all the scientists would be dying/dead already, because AIDS doesn't kill the patient immediately, or quickly. If it had been airborne in the early 1980s, it would have spread far and wide quickly, and practically everyone on the planet would have had it within a few months or a year. And we didn't have the same medical tech back then that we do now.
- d1sxeyes 3y ago
  That’s a fair point. However, I did a quick search and it seems that untreated, the average prognosis for someone with HIV is 8-10 years. With the right motivation, a lot could be accomplished in that time.
  - leptons 3y ago
    You're still missing the point. If HIV were airborne, it would have 8 to 10 years to spread to every part of the world, everyone would have it, and then suddenly people start dying, not just a few but practically everyone everywhere would fall ill, including the scientists you're expecting that would find a cure. AIDS started being noticed in 1981 when a lot of gay men started falling ill and dying. It took until 1983 before scientists figured out it was a virus causing it. By the early 1990s, HIV was the No. 1 cause of death among Americans ages 25 to 44. There weren't any real mitigations until around 1995. So be glad that it wasn't airborne, because there simply wouldn't have been any scientists left to work out how to keep people alive, because an airborne AIDS would have infected literally everyone and killed off almost all before we'd have time to work out how to prevent it from killing people.
    - d1sxeyes 3y ago
      A lot of the delay in finding a cure was due to a lack of interest in finding a cure because of social stigma around HIV. You say it took 14 years for the first mitigations after HIV started to be noticed, but we could like move much faster than that if we tried harder. 8-10 years is an average. Some people would start dying earlier, setting the alarm bells ringing, but you have a point that 1981 doesn’t represent the point where the clock starts ticking for global survival. Airborne transmission doesn’t guarantee 100% infection rates, and so there’s likely some extra time built in there as the virus spreads. For sure it would be a crisis much worse than COVID, but I dont think the picture would be as bleak for the species as you paint it.
      - ahazred8ta 2y ago
        The HIV retrovirus was first discovered in 1983, and the first antiretroviral drug began trials 2 years later in 1985. That's how long it takes to discover and develop a new class of drugs. HIV researchers said at the time, "we're getting all the money we ask for; there are no delays in funding". But you think the researchers were being held back by something?

LinuxBender 3y ago

Already HIV and AIDS are highly treatable Doesn't it cost something like $100k/yr? And if so do insurance companies keep people on their policy for long after they contract it?

d1sxeyes 3y ago
I am not sure. In a lot of countries, access to healthcare is not dependent on the wealth of the recipient, or the goodwill of an insurance company.

leptons 3y ago

I think you're missing the point of my comment. When HIV and AIDS were first spreading, nobody knew what it was and it took quite a long time before there was even any acknowledgement that something was wrong. There simply wouldn't be time to invent countermeasures if HIV were airborne, because all the scientists would be dying/dead already, because AIDS doesn't kill the patient immediately, or quickly. If it had been airborne in the early 1980s, it would have spread far and wide quickly, and practically everyone on the planet would have had it within a few months or a year. And we didn't have the same medical tech back then that we do now.

d1sxeyes 3y ago
That’s a fair point. However, I did a quick search and it seems that untreated, the average prognosis for someone with HIV is 8-10 years. With the right motivation, a lot could be accomplished in that time.
- leptons 3y ago
  You're still missing the point. If HIV were airborne, it would have 8 to 10 years to spread to every part of the world, everyone would have it, and then suddenly people start dying, not just a few but practically everyone everywhere would fall ill, including the scientists you're expecting that would find a cure. AIDS started being noticed in 1981 when a lot of gay men started falling ill and dying. It took until 1983 before scientists figured out it was a virus causing it. By the early 1990s, HIV was the No. 1 cause of death among Americans ages 25 to 44. There weren't any real mitigations until around 1995. So be glad that it wasn't airborne, because there simply wouldn't have been any scientists left to work out how to keep people alive, because an airborne AIDS would have infected literally everyone and killed off almost all before we'd have time to work out how to prevent it from killing people.
  - d1sxeyes 3y ago
    A lot of the delay in finding a cure was due to a lack of interest in finding a cure because of social stigma around HIV. You say it took 14 years for the first mitigations after HIV started to be noticed, but we could like move much faster than that if we tried harder. 8-10 years is an average. Some people would start dying earlier, setting the alarm bells ringing, but you have a point that 1981 doesn’t represent the point where the clock starts ticking for global survival. Airborne transmission doesn’t guarantee 100% infection rates, and so there’s likely some extra time built in there as the virus spreads. For sure it would be a crisis much worse than COVID, but I dont think the picture would be as bleak for the species as you paint it.
    - ahazred8ta 2y ago
      The HIV retrovirus was first discovered in 1983, and the first antiretroviral drug began trials 2 years later in 1985. That's how long it takes to discover and develop a new class of drugs. HIV researchers said at the time, "we're getting all the money we ask for; there are no delays in funding". But you think the researchers were being held back by something?