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Hmmm. I don’t think you understand how airplanes work. They have to take off and land. With petroleum, they consume the fuel and get lighter as they do so, thus

Hmmm. I don’t think you understand how airplanes work. They have to take off and land. With petroleum, they consume the fuel and get lighter as they do so, thus extending their range. Plus, the energy density of petroleum is ridiculous. I don’t see this realistically changing any time soon. With batteries, they don’t get lighter and have to land heavy. It’s something you don’t want to do because modern airframes aren’t really built for it to reduce weight so they can fly longer. As for sustainable solutions… I’m not sure that’s something we necessarily want. I’m all for sustainable solutions, but we actually probably want certain pollutants to help cool the earth (like a volcano) and less of others that cause greenhouse effects. So, if that’s what you mean by sustainable solutions, then that’s something we agree on.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
> Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. "SAF is a biofuel used to power aircraft that has similar properties to conventional jet fuel but with a smaller carbon footprint. Depending on the feedstock and technologies used to produce it, SAF can reduce life cycle GHG emissions dramatically compared to conventional jet fuel. Some emerging SAF pathways even have a net-negative GHG footprint." "An estimated 1 billion dry tons of biomass can be collected sustainably each year in the United States, enough to produce 50–60 billion gallons of low-carbon biofuels." https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-f... "The global fuel consumption by commercial airlines increased each year since 2009 and reached an all-time high of 95 billion gallons in 2019. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the fuel consumption dropped to only 52 billion gallons in 2020. As of 2021, commercial airlines increased their fuel consumption, which is forecasted to rise to 74 and 86 billion gallons in 2022 and 2023, respectively." https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-of-airlines-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-...
- ethbr1 3y ago
  >> In 2023 sustainable aviation fuel production was 600 million liters, representing 0.2% of global jet fuel use. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---alternative-fuels/#:~:text=Aviation%20fuel%20suppliers%20will%20have,rising%20to%2070%25%20in%202050 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheet... Look at the chart on the last page, top-left. That's how SAF production needs to scale to meet an aviation transition.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Work is hard. We've made it this far, might as well keep going. There is always going to be a cohort of humans interested in solving what seems impossible, no?
    - ethbr1 3y ago
      Not suggesting that we shouldn't! Merely suggesting that the predicate of this opinion piece (that the future will be radically and suddenly unlike the past) is unreasonable. The world will continue to decarbonize, but no economy is waking up tomorrow and saying "Surprise, market! We decarbonized overnight and banned fossil fuels."
      - polotics 3y ago
        Well no, this is not how countries will decarbonise. What will happen is some net fossil-fuel exporters will become net importers. Like for example the UK with natural gas. These changes somehow will still come as surprises, their impact will get misattributed, sudden (and unreasonable) things will happen. More I cannot predict.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

> Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. "SAF is a biofuel used to power aircraft that has similar properties to conventional jet fuel but with a smaller carbon footprint. Depending on the feedstock and technologies used to produce it, SAF can reduce life cycle GHG emissions dramatically compared to conventional jet fuel. Some emerging SAF pathways even have a net-negative GHG footprint." "An estimated 1 billion dry tons of biomass can be collected sustainably each year in the United States, enough to produce 50–60 billion gallons of low-carbon biofuels." https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-f... "The global fuel consumption by commercial airlines increased each year since 2009 and reached an all-time high of 95 billion gallons in 2019. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the fuel consumption dropped to only 52 billion gallons in 2020. As of 2021, commercial airlines increased their fuel consumption, which is forecasted to rise to 74 and 86 billion gallons in 2022 and 2023, respectively." https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-of-airlines-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-...

ethbr1 3y ago
>> In 2023 sustainable aviation fuel production was 600 million liters, representing 0.2% of global jet fuel use. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---alternative-fuels/#:~:text=Aviation%20fuel%20suppliers%20will%20have,rising%20to%2070%25%20in%202050 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheet... Look at the chart on the last page, top-left. That's how SAF production needs to scale to meet an aviation transition.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Work is hard. We've made it this far, might as well keep going. There is always going to be a cohort of humans interested in solving what seems impossible, no?
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    Not suggesting that we shouldn't! Merely suggesting that the predicate of this opinion piece (that the future will be radically and suddenly unlike the past) is unreasonable. The world will continue to decarbonize, but no economy is waking up tomorrow and saying "Surprise, market! We decarbonized overnight and banned fossil fuels."
    - polotics 3y ago
      Well no, this is not how countries will decarbonise. What will happen is some net fossil-fuel exporters will become net importers. Like for example the UK with natural gas. These changes somehow will still come as surprises, their impact will get misattributed, sudden (and unreasonable) things will happen. More I cannot predict.