3 ms·

Battery tech is going to double in two years… every year since 1992 (and possibly before). Still hasn’t happened yet.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-decline_850.png https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-dec... https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...
- withinboredom 3y ago
  Price != density Super important for things like vehicles (especially airplanes).
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. Vehicles are already solved for, as is utility scale energy storage, using existing battery cells and their density. Marine transport will use either ammonia or methanol, both produced through clean energy based processes. ~40% of the tonnage of ships traveling the world’s oceans and rivers is moving energy around [1] [2], which should decline as renewables, transmission, and battery storage scales up globally. There is no "silver bullet," but many solutions all converging (rapidly and effectively, from a preponderance of all available information) on deprecating fossil fuels for energy. [1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... [2] https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
    - withinboredom 3y ago
      Hmmm. I don’t think you understand how airplanes work. They have to take off and land. With petroleum, they consume the fuel and get lighter as they do so, thus extending their range. Plus, the energy density of petroleum is ridiculous. I don’t see this realistically changing any time soon. With batteries, they don’t get lighter and have to land heavy. It’s something you don’t want to do because modern airframes aren’t really built for it to reduce weight so they can fly longer. As for sustainable solutions… I’m not sure that’s something we necessarily want. I’m all for sustainable solutions, but we actually probably want certain pollutants to help cool the earth (like a volcano) and less of others that cause greenhouse effects. So, if that’s what you mean by sustainable solutions, then that’s something we agree on.
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        > Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. "SAF is a biofuel used to power aircraft that has similar properties to conventional jet fuel but with a smaller carbon footprint. Depending on the feedstock and technologies used to produce it, SAF can reduce life cycle GHG emissions dramatically compared to conventional jet fuel. Some emerging SAF pathways even have a net-negative GHG footprint." "An estimated 1 billion dry tons of biomass can be collected sustainably each year in the United States, enough to produce 50–60 billion gallons of low-carbon biofuels." https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-f... "The global fuel consumption by commercial airlines increased each year since 2009 and reached an all-time high of 95 billion gallons in 2019. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the fuel consumption dropped to only 52 billion gallons in 2020. As of 2021, commercial airlines increased their fuel consumption, which is forecasted to rise to 74 and 86 billion gallons in 2022 and 2023, respectively." https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-of-airlines-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-...
        ethbr1 3y ago
        >> In 2023 sustainable aviation fuel production was 600 million liters, representing 0.2% of global jet fuel use. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---alternative-fuels/#:~:text=Aviation%20fuel%20suppliers%20will%20have,rising%20to%2070%25%20in%202050 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheet... Look at the chart on the last page, top-left. That's how SAF production needs to scale to meet an aviation transition.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-decline_850.png https://ourworldindata.org/images/published/Battery-cost-dec... https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...

withinboredom 3y ago
Price != density Super important for things like vehicles (especially airplanes).
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. Vehicles are already solved for, as is utility scale energy storage, using existing battery cells and their density. Marine transport will use either ammonia or methanol, both produced through clean energy based processes. ~40% of the tonnage of ships traveling the world’s oceans and rivers is moving energy around [1] [2], which should decline as renewables, transmission, and battery storage scales up globally. There is no "silver bullet," but many solutions all converging (rapidly and effectively, from a preponderance of all available information) on deprecating fossil fuels for energy. [1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... [2] https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
  - withinboredom 3y ago
    Hmmm. I don’t think you understand how airplanes work. They have to take off and land. With petroleum, they consume the fuel and get lighter as they do so, thus extending their range. Plus, the energy density of petroleum is ridiculous. I don’t see this realistically changing any time soon. With batteries, they don’t get lighter and have to land heavy. It’s something you don’t want to do because modern airframes aren’t really built for it to reduce weight so they can fly longer. As for sustainable solutions… I’m not sure that’s something we necessarily want. I’m all for sustainable solutions, but we actually probably want certain pollutants to help cool the earth (like a volcano) and less of others that cause greenhouse effects. So, if that’s what you mean by sustainable solutions, then that’s something we agree on.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      > Air travel is ~6% of global petroleum demand, they will switch to a non fossil liquid fuel. "SAF is a biofuel used to power aircraft that has similar properties to conventional jet fuel but with a smaller carbon footprint. Depending on the feedstock and technologies used to produce it, SAF can reduce life cycle GHG emissions dramatically compared to conventional jet fuel. Some emerging SAF pathways even have a net-negative GHG footprint." "An estimated 1 billion dry tons of biomass can be collected sustainably each year in the United States, enough to produce 50–60 billion gallons of low-carbon biofuels." https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-f... "The global fuel consumption by commercial airlines increased each year since 2009 and reached an all-time high of 95 billion gallons in 2019. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the fuel consumption dropped to only 52 billion gallons in 2020. As of 2021, commercial airlines increased their fuel consumption, which is forecasted to rise to 74 and 86 billion gallons in 2022 and 2023, respectively." https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-of-airlines-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/655057/fuel-consumption-...
      - ethbr1 3y ago
        >> In 2023 sustainable aviation fuel production was 600 million liters, representing 0.2% of global jet fuel use. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---alternative-fuels/#:~:text=Aviation%20fuel%20suppliers%20will%20have,rising%20to%2070%25%20in%202050 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheet... Look at the chart on the last page, top-left. That's how SAF production needs to scale to meet an aviation transition.