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It gets even worse. Around ~800 ppm you get noticeable cognitive impairment in humans. We may get there by 2100. i.e. in the next generation, unless one's home

It gets even worse. Around ~800 ppm you get noticeable cognitive impairment in humans. We may get there by 2100. i.e. in the next generation, unless one's home is equipped with a fancy filtration system, breathing air will have issues on its own, anywhere in the world.

silverquiet 3y ago
Cognitive impairment is bad, but probably the least of anyone's concerns at 800 ppm. I suspect the interest will be more in migrating to the last habitable zones near the poles and fighting off the others trying to eke out an existence there. Weird to think that a kid born today could easily live to 2100.
- moralestapia 3y ago
  >Weird to think that a kid born today could easily live to 2100. Indeed! It's also quite possible that some of the humans that will live forever (or until they choose not to) may already be around us.
  - onion2k 3y ago
    That's possible assuming the pace of medicinal science continues. Someone living until 2100 means they'd be 76. That only requires they don't have an accident. Most people born today will live that long. And, rather sadly, if climate change happens as predicted it is going to make for a pretty bleak existence. It's one reason I'm fairly happy not to have had kids.
    - silverquiet 3y ago
      Yes, I feel fortunate to have never wanted children; it's something that's actually brought me a lot of peace as I've gotten older. It's taken me a long time to come to some acceptance of the likely future of humanity and the Earth, and I can understand why it's so hard for those with children to do so themselves.
      - moralestapia 3y ago
        Just curious. If someone asked you whether you wanted to exist or not, before coming here? Would you have chosen being born?
        silverquiet 3y ago
        It is interesting that you don't get to consent to being created, isn't it? If you want my thoughts on the matter, Tolstoy pretty much nailed it (and obviously wrote it far better than I could) over a century before I was born in "A Confession" - essentially saying that life is like being stuck holding onto the edge of well with a dragon at the bottom; knowing that eventually you will lose your grip and be consumed by the dragon. I do resent that I was put in that well a bit and am not looking to put anyone else in a well of their own.
        moralestapia 3y ago
        Thanks, I read that book as well (which is remarkable for me as I've only read like four books ever in life), can recommend. What do you think of Emil Cioran, btw? It may pique your interest.
    - swader999 3y ago
      Why bleak? What effects other than milder winters and sea level rising a few mm a decade?
      - hackerlight 3y ago
        Events like this become more frequent: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-african-heat-wave-would-not-have-been-possible-without-climate-change/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-african-he... If you shift a normal distribution to the right even a little bit, the frequency of tail events above a fixed threshold (in this case, wet bulb temperatures exceeding the human survivability limit of 35 degrees celcius) increases more than linearly. This is especially an issue near the equator, which will lead to climate refugees seeking colder climates, north and south.
      - onion2k 3y ago
        If that's all that happens then humanity has been lucky. At the other end of the scale, billions die of starvation, wars over resources, etc.
  - netsharc 3y ago
    This comment feels very out of place in a thread about the planet's on-going and rapidly accelerating climate decline.
vondur 3y ago
Heck, go back to the Jurassic and it was up to 2100ppm. Crazy how much the environment and the continents change over such huge timespans.
- seadan83 3y ago
  Current rate of increase is 2.55 ppm/yr We will be at 2000 in 640 years. Previously those rates of change were over the course of millions of years. It is crazy how much things have changed over millions of years, perhaps crazier to see those same changes 3 orders of magnitude faster.
  - seadan83 3y ago
    From yet another perspective, one human lifetime of 100 years would see as much climate change as would normally be seen in 100,000 years.* Humans only started farming 12,000 years ago (which I still find shockingly recent), and humans used to farm all over the middle east (thinking if Iraq specifically, it used to be largely arable). All in all, it's getting really spicy for next couple centuries. * except, the earth climate system can't change that fast relative to an impulse difference of Co2 levels. It us akin to putting 10 blankets on your bed. It takes time for heat to build up (the system experiences a latent effect)
seadan83 3y ago
Fun factoid, at around 1200 ppm, cumulus clouds stop forming. https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-co2-levels-could-trigger-clouds-tipping-point-and-8c-of-global-warming/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-co2-levels-could-trigger...
realreality 3y ago
The ~420ppm statistic is considered a global average. The concentration is already quite a bit higher in cities. Poke around here [1] for yourself. In indoor urban spaces, concentrations are probably already typically 800ppm. It might explain some of our social dysfunction... [1] https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-67.82,33.15,727/loc=-73.308,41.582 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/ove...

silverquiet 3y ago

Cognitive impairment is bad, but probably the least of anyone's concerns at 800 ppm. I suspect the interest will be more in migrating to the last habitable zones near the poles and fighting off the others trying to eke out an existence there. Weird to think that a kid born today could easily live to 2100.

moralestapia 3y ago
>Weird to think that a kid born today could easily live to 2100. Indeed! It's also quite possible that some of the humans that will live forever (or until they choose not to) may already be around us.
- onion2k 3y ago
  That's possible assuming the pace of medicinal science continues. Someone living until 2100 means they'd be 76. That only requires they don't have an accident. Most people born today will live that long. And, rather sadly, if climate change happens as predicted it is going to make for a pretty bleak existence. It's one reason I'm fairly happy not to have had kids.
  - silverquiet 3y ago
    Yes, I feel fortunate to have never wanted children; it's something that's actually brought me a lot of peace as I've gotten older. It's taken me a long time to come to some acceptance of the likely future of humanity and the Earth, and I can understand why it's so hard for those with children to do so themselves.
    - moralestapia 3y ago
      Just curious. If someone asked you whether you wanted to exist or not, before coming here? Would you have chosen being born?
      - silverquiet 3y ago
        It is interesting that you don't get to consent to being created, isn't it? If you want my thoughts on the matter, Tolstoy pretty much nailed it (and obviously wrote it far better than I could) over a century before I was born in "A Confession" - essentially saying that life is like being stuck holding onto the edge of well with a dragon at the bottom; knowing that eventually you will lose your grip and be consumed by the dragon. I do resent that I was put in that well a bit and am not looking to put anyone else in a well of their own.
        moralestapia 3y ago
        Thanks, I read that book as well (which is remarkable for me as I've only read like four books ever in life), can recommend. What do you think of Emil Cioran, btw? It may pique your interest.
  - swader999 3y ago
    Why bleak? What effects other than milder winters and sea level rising a few mm a decade?
    - hackerlight 3y ago
      Events like this become more frequent: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-african-heat-wave-would-not-have-been-possible-without-climate-change/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-african-he... If you shift a normal distribution to the right even a little bit, the frequency of tail events above a fixed threshold (in this case, wet bulb temperatures exceeding the human survivability limit of 35 degrees celcius) increases more than linearly. This is especially an issue near the equator, which will lead to climate refugees seeking colder climates, north and south.
    - onion2k 3y ago
      If that's all that happens then humanity has been lucky. At the other end of the scale, billions die of starvation, wars over resources, etc.
- netsharc 3y ago
  This comment feels very out of place in a thread about the planet's on-going and rapidly accelerating climate decline.

vondur 3y ago

Heck, go back to the Jurassic and it was up to 2100ppm. Crazy how much the environment and the continents change over such huge timespans.

seadan83 3y ago
Current rate of increase is 2.55 ppm/yr We will be at 2000 in 640 years. Previously those rates of change were over the course of millions of years. It is crazy how much things have changed over millions of years, perhaps crazier to see those same changes 3 orders of magnitude faster.
- seadan83 3y ago
  From yet another perspective, one human lifetime of 100 years would see as much climate change as would normally be seen in 100,000 years.* Humans only started farming 12,000 years ago (which I still find shockingly recent), and humans used to farm all over the middle east (thinking if Iraq specifically, it used to be largely arable). All in all, it's getting really spicy for next couple centuries. * except, the earth climate system can't change that fast relative to an impulse difference of Co2 levels. It us akin to putting 10 blankets on your bed. It takes time for heat to build up (the system experiences a latent effect)

seadan83 3y ago

Fun factoid, at around 1200 ppm, cumulus clouds stop forming. https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-co2-levels-could-trigger-clouds-tipping-point-and-8c-of-global-warming/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-co2-levels-could-trigger...

realreality 3y ago

The ~420ppm statistic is considered a global average. The concentration is already quite a bit higher in cities. Poke around here [1] for yourself. In indoor urban spaces, concentrations are probably already typically 800ppm. It might explain some of our social dysfunction... [1] https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-67.82,33.15,727/loc=-73.308,41.582 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/ove...