This is always very much science fiction modelling... The graph shows a difference between reality and their model of Poland outside the EU only from 2014 onwa

This is always very much science fiction modelling... The graph shows a difference between reality and their model of Poland outside the EU only from 2014 onwards (Poland joined the EU in 2004) so it would have been interesting to at least mention and discuss the significance of that date. [Edit: Ukraine is the country most similar to Poland in Europe in terms of population, if they compared Poland to Ukraine, 2014 is a significant date there (Dombass, Crimea, etc), obviously results will be stricking...] > Among the eight eastern member states that joined in 2004, only Lithuania (60.3%) was found by PIE to have had a bigger premium from EU membership than Poland. They were followed by Latvia (32.2%), Slovakia (18.2%), Hungary (13.4%), the Czech Republic (8.4%), Estonia (0.4%) and Slovenia (0.1%) These are widely varying estimates, from "massive difference" in one country to "no difference at all" to a neighbouring country. I suspect one could tweak the model or assumptions a little bit and get completely different results.