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If Starship succeeds, the window of opportunity for small launch providers might be closed since there is no way they could compete. Commercial launch provider

If Starship succeeds, the window of opportunity for small launch providers might be closed since there is no way they could compete. Commercial launch providers without a similar capability could all be pushed out of business. For any new company to challenge SpaceX would basically be impossible. Old companies with deep wallets might still be in the running.

zie 3y ago
The US govt will force into existence a competitor OR keep one of the old ones around on life support. They have made their position clear and have been backing it up with money. All governments probably want their own space program, but only some can afford it. Those that can all force into existence a local space program because they need to be able to launch their own stuff for national security and defence purposes. Countries with their own space program: EU, India, China, Russia, etc. None of them are cheaper than Falcon 9 and none of them will be able to compete with Starship anytime soon, but they will all continue to exist even if Starship becomes a runaway success.
- cjbgkagh 3y ago
  I worry that corporations have gotten better at the art of siphoning money from such programs without delivering on the intent, making more money from repeated failures. I worry that there is no longer the political ability to punish big companies for their failures. At such of a point it becomes impossible to will such projects into existence. I wonder if China, in essence, has more of an ability to punish corporations due to the power concentration at the top and if this paradoxically allows for better competition between corporations that are less powerful than the politicians. Perhaps at a certain point of corruption the leadership in effect already owns everything so the agency costs from such corruption is greatly reduced.
  - zie 3y ago
    That's a separate concern, but it's definitely a concern. I agree China could potentially punish easier, but they can also bribe/allow grifting easier.
- TMWNN 3y ago
  >The US govt will force into existence a competitor Rocket Lab plus SpaceX having two proven launch vehicles (Starship and Falcon 9) might be sufficient to satisfy the US government's desire for alternatives. Rocket Lab is already launching national security payloads.
  - zie 3y ago
    Agreed, but Rocket Lab hasn't quite gotten around to shipping larger cargo. I know it's on their TODO list, so I hope they manage to move it to their DONE list :)
jauntywundrkind 3y ago
It's a long shot but Relativity is keyed in to something most folks don't get or see. Using 3d printing heavily to radically unconstrain design & figure out where you want to put every ounce of material could be a huge advantage. It might not be fast, but we have to compare the net cost, of letting printers run, versus figuring out exact manufacturing processes for thousands of parts netting millions of discrete operations. These are costly works, but I'm actually less scared than I'd expect that this is an un-disruptable lead. We have much better control systems, much better manufacturing systems, and a clear example of what definitely works that creates a corporate necessity the old guard never & perhaps still doesn't understand.
nine_k 3y ago
I think that a smaller launch system that can launch from "anywhere" (a wide choice of launch pads), and can insert your moderate spacecraft directly to the orbit yo specify, not as a par of a huge multi-craft launch to a compromise intermediate orbit, may have a market. I suppose Electron [1] is targeting it, for instance. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab_Electron https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab_Electron

zie 3y ago

The US govt will force into existence a competitor OR keep one of the old ones around on life support. They have made their position clear and have been backing it up with money. All governments probably want their own space program, but only some can afford it. Those that can all force into existence a local space program because they need to be able to launch their own stuff for national security and defence purposes. Countries with their own space program: EU, India, China, Russia, etc. None of them are cheaper than Falcon 9 and none of them will be able to compete with Starship anytime soon, but they will all continue to exist even if Starship becomes a runaway success.

cjbgkagh 3y ago
I worry that corporations have gotten better at the art of siphoning money from such programs without delivering on the intent, making more money from repeated failures. I worry that there is no longer the political ability to punish big companies for their failures. At such of a point it becomes impossible to will such projects into existence. I wonder if China, in essence, has more of an ability to punish corporations due to the power concentration at the top and if this paradoxically allows for better competition between corporations that are less powerful than the politicians. Perhaps at a certain point of corruption the leadership in effect already owns everything so the agency costs from such corruption is greatly reduced.
- zie 3y ago
  That's a separate concern, but it's definitely a concern. I agree China could potentially punish easier, but they can also bribe/allow grifting easier.
TMWNN 3y ago
>The US govt will force into existence a competitor Rocket Lab plus SpaceX having two proven launch vehicles (Starship and Falcon 9) might be sufficient to satisfy the US government's desire for alternatives. Rocket Lab is already launching national security payloads.
- zie 3y ago
  Agreed, but Rocket Lab hasn't quite gotten around to shipping larger cargo. I know it's on their TODO list, so I hope they manage to move it to their DONE list :)

jauntywundrkind 3y ago

It's a long shot but Relativity is keyed in to something most folks don't get or see. Using 3d printing heavily to radically unconstrain design & figure out where you want to put every ounce of material could be a huge advantage. It might not be fast, but we have to compare the net cost, of letting printers run, versus figuring out exact manufacturing processes for thousands of parts netting millions of discrete operations. These are costly works, but I'm actually less scared than I'd expect that this is an un-disruptable lead. We have much better control systems, much better manufacturing systems, and a clear example of what definitely works that creates a corporate necessity the old guard never & perhaps still doesn't understand.

nine_k 3y ago

I think that a smaller launch system that can launch from "anywhere" (a wide choice of launch pads), and can insert your moderate spacecraft directly to the orbit yo specify, not as a par of a huge multi-craft launch to a compromise intermediate orbit, may have a market. I suppose Electron [1] is targeting it, for instance. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab_Electron https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab_Electron