5 ms·

This makes sense though...customers are pushing to have chips made outside of Taiwan to protect their supply chain, why not make them pay for that when it's cle

This makes sense though...customers are pushing to have chips made outside of Taiwan to protect their supply chain, why not make them pay for that when it's clearly more expensive to do so. Many companies have already cleared out of China as much as possible (Dell made it clear they wanted all supply out of China by 2024)...Taiwan is the next logical step. You will start to see the term NCNT (No China, No Taiwan) used more and more...it's already part of many companies internal strategy and corporate planning. Similarly China has a "China for China" policy...where they want everything sold in China to be 100% made in China.

hackuser01 2y ago
“they want everything sold in China to be 100% made in China. ”???
- Havoc 2y ago
  They've been moving in that direction for years. When you've got a strong industrial base AND a big local market then it becomes common sense both economically and strategically to nudge things in that direction
  - mrjin 2y ago
    It was and probably will be cheaper for China to buy some components from external source, and the "buying is better" party dominated for about 30 years. US has well demonstrated well enough why China should stop buying at least critical parts.
- maxglute 2y ago
  PRC has population of OECD countries combined. That's enough of humanity for indigenous everything. US postwar basically maintained autarky across the tech and production tree with 160-300m people before outshoring / ceding strategic industries to others. When PRC has 3x that much people, they can't not eventually aim for ~100% domestic efforts on needs of satisfying job creation alone, and that's what's been happening since they started pumping out OCED combined in tertiary and skilled talent in the last few years - to do the designed in Califorinia part while holding on to as much of the Made in China part.
euratai 2y ago
China is old [1] and broke [2]. It won't be able to afford to attack Taiwan - for reference, 1930s Japan and Germany had way more young people. Japan was also rich from its empire, while Germany transitioned away from gold standard to afford its wars. 2022 Russia thought the war would end in 3 days. Also, as we see from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones and missiles are effective at taking out the world's second largest navy. Taiwan has very accurate and effective homegrown missiles [3]. China would need to amass a ton of ships which would be easily detected, staff them with only sons from families, and try to move them across a 100 mile straits while under the barrage of US/Japan/Taiwan missiles and drones. Lastly, China is quickly transitioning to state run economy much like Soviet Union [4], which means innovations and growth will be gone forever, especially in tech industries. [1] https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fun-forecasts-indicate-china-is-on-track-for-a-demographic-v0-82uxvac8o4hc1.png%3Fwidth%3D789%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D29b338678789eecb2c0bd151ad68dd36af819627 https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.... [2] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugality-bites-china-s-cash-strapped-local-governments https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugal... https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3257981/chinas-local-government-debt-woes-hurting-private-firms-creating-grass-roots-distrust-academic https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/325... [3] https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship-using-hsiung-feng-harpoon/ https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship... [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-state-owned-companies-squeeze-private-sector https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-sta...
- failuser 2y ago
  Russia did not stop after 3 days, didn’t it? And there is no indication it will stop any time soon. Russia is also old and broke, but it had enough to keep going. And Russia needs to spend a much higher percentage of the GDP on war than China. I’m pretty sure China can take Taiwan if it wants to, I just hope the estimated price will be too high for them to actually pull the trigger.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    Ukraine isn't an island...
deleted 2y ago
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hackuser01 2y ago

“they want everything sold in China to be 100% made in China. ”???

Havoc 2y ago
They've been moving in that direction for years. When you've got a strong industrial base AND a big local market then it becomes common sense both economically and strategically to nudge things in that direction
- mrjin 2y ago
  It was and probably will be cheaper for China to buy some components from external source, and the "buying is better" party dominated for about 30 years. US has well demonstrated well enough why China should stop buying at least critical parts.
maxglute 2y ago
PRC has population of OECD countries combined. That's enough of humanity for indigenous everything. US postwar basically maintained autarky across the tech and production tree with 160-300m people before outshoring / ceding strategic industries to others. When PRC has 3x that much people, they can't not eventually aim for ~100% domestic efforts on needs of satisfying job creation alone, and that's what's been happening since they started pumping out OCED combined in tertiary and skilled talent in the last few years - to do the designed in Califorinia part while holding on to as much of the Made in China part.

euratai 2y ago

China is old [1] and broke [2]. It won't be able to afford to attack Taiwan - for reference, 1930s Japan and Germany had way more young people. Japan was also rich from its empire, while Germany transitioned away from gold standard to afford its wars. 2022 Russia thought the war would end in 3 days. Also, as we see from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones and missiles are effective at taking out the world's second largest navy. Taiwan has very accurate and effective homegrown missiles [3]. China would need to amass a ton of ships which would be easily detected, staff them with only sons from families, and try to move them across a 100 mile straits while under the barrage of US/Japan/Taiwan missiles and drones. Lastly, China is quickly transitioning to state run economy much like Soviet Union [4], which means innovations and growth will be gone forever, especially in tech industries. [1] https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fun-forecasts-indicate-china-is-on-track-for-a-demographic-v0-82uxvac8o4hc1.png%3Fwidth%3D789%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D29b338678789eecb2c0bd151ad68dd36af819627 https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.... [2] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugality-bites-china-s-cash-strapped-local-governments https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugal... https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3257981/chinas-local-government-debt-woes-hurting-private-firms-creating-grass-roots-distrust-academic https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/325... [3] https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship-using-hsiung-feng-harpoon/ https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship... [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-state-owned-companies-squeeze-private-sector https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-sta...

failuser 2y ago
Russia did not stop after 3 days, didn’t it? And there is no indication it will stop any time soon. Russia is also old and broke, but it had enough to keep going. And Russia needs to spend a much higher percentage of the GDP on war than China. I’m pretty sure China can take Taiwan if it wants to, I just hope the estimated price will be too high for them to actually pull the trigger.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  Ukraine isn't an island...

deleted 2y ago

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