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TSMC expects to survive as a corporation by diversifying the locations of their manufacturing. The cost of a product against amortization cost of new facilities

TSMC expects to survive as a corporation by diversifying the locations of their manufacturing. The cost of a product against amortization cost of new facilities will be higher no doubt. But the ability to source similar cost automation and resources is likely the same. >Although China has never made a full-blown attempt to seize Taiwan and dismantle its rival once and for all, fears of a Chinese invasion have increased in recent years, especially since Taiwan became an extremely important strategic asset thanks to TSMC's cutting-edge fabs. Taiwan inevitably falls. Diversification out of taiwan and divestment of china toward smic will make taiwan's value to defend ever decreasing. China's analysts are looking at the cost-benefit and evaluating whether or not the world ultimately defends Taiwan or gives it up. November will be a big decider on this. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-elections-2024/Would-a-Trump-presidency-change-China-s-calculations-on-Taiwan https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-elections-2024/Would-a... China is suddenly wanting Trump to win, lets be realistic.

mytailorisrich 3y ago
TSMC, as a business, has nothing to fear from a mainland takeover beyond the risk of losing some overseas customers. It would be in the mainland's interest to keep TSMC running as smoothly as possible, like they did in HK. Diversifying outside of Taiwan is for the benefit of the US and allies. As you mention, for Taiwan this is a bad strategic move but they have no choice but to comply. > What matters a great deal more is India, Australia, Japan, and SK China has no military interest in any of those. Taiwan is Chinese territory. At most China might be interested in the part of historical Tibet that is now in India (and which it still claims) but realistically a war is no longer viable or realistic.
- dev1ycan 3y ago
  China won't do anything drastic to Taiwan/TSMC in fact they will prob keep their elections going just like with HK. The thing however is TSMC will suffer because once the US recognizes it as Chinese controlled territory, TSMC will be unable to buy EUV machines so their production will basically freeze at its current spot
  - mytailorisrich 3y ago
    Yes, the US would want to do that. But as things stand currently this would have to be balanced with the existence of alternatives to TSMC. This why the US want TSMC to build fabs in the West and affiliates.
  - SR2Z 3y ago
    HK "elections" are a farce these days - only pro-China folk are allowed on the ballot. TSMC fabs in Taiwan would NOT belong to TSMC after an invasion, except maybe in name only.
    - dev1ycan 3y ago
      Democratic elections are a farce in general, only the $$ power behind allow candidates to run, right now it's always pro democracy candidates because the money behind them want them to, once the money comes from mainland China it becomes pro integration candidates. Anyone who believes otherwise is blind to reality.
      - hnfong 3y ago
        You've been out of date regarding Hong Kong politics for ~3 years mate. Probably should check out the latest developments before lecturing others about reality.
      - blackhawkC17 3y ago
        > Democratic elections are a farce in general, only the $$ power behind allow candidates to run, right now it's always pro democracy candidates because the money behind them want them to, once the money comes from mainland China it becomes pro integration candidates. This is frankly silly. Democracy has many issues, but that doesn't mean there's a cabal pulling strings behind choosing the candidates. The above is the typical excuse of autocrats and dictators that want to discredit democracy, even though it's by far the best governance model compared to the nonsense they want.
  - Muromec 3y ago
    With the precision needed for lithography machine to run, I wander how they even managed to survive so far in such a seismically active place. Any military farting too loud in the vicinity of those machines and they don’t even freeze
- deleted 3y ago
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- zenapollo 3y ago
  > nothing to fear Except any executive or employee not willing to bend the knee and gargle will be fired or perhaps a re-education retreat.
- bell-cot 3y ago
  > It would be in the mainland's interest to keep TSMC running... It would also be in the mainland's interests to not be engaging in a massive military build-up. Similar for quite a few major policies and behaviors which they've been indulging in for years now. Perhaps the CCP is not a rational actor, at least as we might prefer to account such things?
  - mytailorisrich 3y ago
    If China built its military in the same way the US did it would still have to grow by orders of magnitude... are the US the crazy ones, then? Or are there rational aims there?
- Detrytus 3y ago
  > Taiwan is Chinese territory. Historically, it would be more accurate to say that China is Taiwanese territory ;) > It would be in the mainland's interest to keep TSMC running as smoothly as possible, like they did in HK. Well, maybe, but they surely would redirect the output to China instead of selling it worldwide. Which is why the US would rather nuke the TSMC factories themselves than let them fall into Chinese hands. So, no matter who wins a military conflict for Taiwan TSMC most likely gets nuked by the losing side.
- rhelz 3y ago
  If there ever were a war between China and Taiwan, I think how cheap our chips are would be one of the least of our worries. If the U.S. got dragged into it, nobody would be worried about chip prices for the next ten thousand years. Diversifying the fab locations has no profit or business motivation. Seems to me the only reason we are doing it is to make it "less risky" to start a trade war. The problem is a trade war will never be "less risky" for any country than the kind of nice, harmonious, trade we've had with China for the past 25 years. Its kept U.S. inflation low, enabled massive technological and manufacturing advances, and has lifted hundreds of millions of people into the middle class. Its one of the best things that's ever happened in history. Why are we so eager to throw all that away? Frankly, instead of making it easier for everybody to pick a fight with each other, it would be better if we just remember the fact that we actually are friends. I love being able to design a circuit board, hit a button and have it manufactured in China and delivered to my front door in 5 days for $25. Let's just all go back to making money hand over fist, what say?
  - mytailorisrich 3y ago
    The US would never go to war against China. It is simply unrealistic. It'd be calibrated support like we're seeing in Ukraine but no direct engagement.
    - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
      So was World War I unrealistic. I mean, look, I'm not in favor of a shooting war between the US and China. But I'm not as sanguine as you are that it can't happen.
      - rhelz 3y ago
        > World War I unrealistic. We're not talking about the first world war, we're talking about what would be the final world war. We can't be sanguine about it not happening, sure--we need to ensure it doesn't happen.
    - hmmmcurious1 3y ago
- adrian_b 3y ago
  > Taiwan is Chinese territory. Taiwan can be a Chinese territory only according to the law "might is right". For millenia, Taiwan has not been a Chinese territory. Only during the last few centuries there has been a massive migration of Fujian Chinese into Taiwan that has altered its population. Then after WWII Taiwan has been invaded by the Kuomintang, which has altered again the population of the island, so that now the non-Chinese native inhabitants have remained just a small minority. Taiwan has been officially a territory belonging to mainland China only between 1683 and 1895, which is a rather weak basis for claiming that Taiwan is a Chinese territory, not much better than claiming that Alaska is a Russian territory.
  - mytailorisrich 3y ago
    How long does a territory has to be part of a country for you to recognise it? If I look at a world map from "millenia" ago, or even just 1683 then by your logic most of the world's countries are built on a "weak basis", often even weaker than that... We all now the tricky political situation of Taiwan but sometimes some people seem to lose all sense of basic reality and facts about it.
    - adrian_b 3y ago
      You have missed my point. This is not the case of a territory that a country controls now, even if it has occupied it only recently (e.g. like Tibet), when nobody can contest that they are not the owners of the territory, unless they would be willing to attack them, to change the current ownership of the territory by force. This is the case of a territory that is not controlled by the country that desires to be its owner, and it has not been controlled by it since 1895. Despite that, they want to change the de facto ownership of the territory, which can be done only by force. The fact that some corrupt politicians from many countries have decided that de jure Taiwan should belong to China, without any grounds for this, so that they have given to China what was not theirs to give, is something as valid as the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, where Hitler, despite not being the owner of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Romania, has nonetheless given them to Russia, or the Churchill-Roosevelt-Stalin accords, where Churchill and Roosevelt, despite not being the owners of Eastern Europe, have given it to Stalin. There are other such cases where a country desires to become the owner of some territory, but they at least can justify their claims by the fact that the desired territory has actually belonged to them for a long time and it had been taken from them by force, so that it would be right for the territory to have its ownership reverted. In this case such historical claims have little value, because Taiwan has become Chinese only recently and only by force, first during the Qing dynasty and then due to the Kuomintang invasion.
amou234 3y ago
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swatcoder 3y ago
> If china has simply said no to war and put a stop to the ukraine war, china wouldbe doing so much better today. This has it backwards. Assuming China envisions a strong sphere of influence over Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific, which is a vision in conflict with the US sphere of influence over that region, their ability to manifest that vision directly benefit from conflicts that draw down US readiness. How far they get to exploit that conflict depends on other factors, including who presides over the next US administration, but in respect to this long-term vision they're in a better position for there being a war in Ukraine than not and so are invested in making it longer and more treacherous for Europe. And you see exactly that in their interactions with Russia.
deviantbit 3y ago
"China is suddenly wanting Trump to win, lets be realistic." China is telling people Trump will abandon Taiwan, and you believed their propaganda? Amazing how that works. The last person China wants is Trump. Trump already said he would increase tariffs on China. He also said he would ban the sell of Chinese cars in the United States. Not to mention, he said he sanction China for selling weapons to Russia, which Biden hasn't done.
- incomingpain 3y ago
  >China is telling people Trump will abandon Taiwan, and you believed their propaganda? Amazing how that works. Gotta read that again; not propaganda. This isn't some straight forward meaning to their words. >The last person China wants is Trump. Trump already said he would increase tariffs on China. He also said he would ban the sell of Chinese cars in the United States. Not to mention, he said he sanction China for selling weapons to Russia, which Biden hasn't done. China is in a economic depression and probably going to be near its bottom by the end of the year. The fear of tariffs is far lower today and realistically not that necessary. As I said though, 'suddenly' which essentially I agree with you, but it recently switched.
  - deviantbit 3y ago
    China is far from a depression. Their economy grew by more than 5% this past quarter. That is far from a depression. Where do you come up with this? There is something seriously wrong with most people. You write things, and hope they are true. It is incredible. It's like Christians and other religious people. If I believe it, it will become reality.
    - euratai 3y ago
      China's 5% this quarter comes from massively subsidizing exports for its EV, battery, solar panels, at a steep loss per transaction, even though these type of exports are only 3% of overall exports. This is because their other engine of consumption and investment are failing. The window to do that is quickly closing, first with developed nations as Europe and US ramping up tariffs. Developing nations are starting to catch on, as Brazil and Mexico are hiking their tariffs on China as well. We'll see a steep drop of export (as we've seen for march [1]) for rest of the year. [1] China’s exports tumble 7.5% in March and imports also fall as demand slows https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-imports-b25c21299101d2483f946a0ce264662f https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-imports-b25c2...
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impossiblefork 3y ago
You understand though, that if Taiwan falls, many of these experts may fall into Chinese hands, right? Letting China win won't give the US a microchip monopoly. It will give China a chance to talk to experts familiar with the state of the art.
msabalau 3y ago
There is nothing "inevitable" about Taiwan falling. China would have to take an inexperienced military and accomplish one of the hardest things imaginable, an amphibious invasion that can only happen in narrow time windows at handful of spots on an island that consists mostly of mountains, jungle and dense urban areas. It's so hard a task that in World War II the Allied forces (with a ton more experience, and a far more favorable balance of power, chose to invade Okinawa instead, where the US "only" suffered forty eight thousand battlefield casualties. This was still a lot less than the projected causalities of attacking a ridiculously underdefended Taiwan. The reason for TSMC to diversify is that Xi might be foolish enough to try this, and erratic and isolationist politicians in the US might fail to deter him. Taiwan doesn't have to fall for TSMC to gravely harm TSMC and the global economy, they merely have to start a war.
- failuser 3y ago
  Imagine if China starts with blowing up TSMC with long-range weapons. How will the West react if Taiwan no longer has that leverage? Before Russia actually invaded Ukraine I was more optimistic about this.
- incomingpain 3y ago
  >There is nothing "inevitable" about Taiwan falling. Obviously I dont own a crystal ball and cannot predict the future but I stand by the prediction. > China would have to take an inexperienced military and accomplish one of the hardest things imaginable, an amphibious invasion that can only happen in narrow time windows at handful of spots on an island that consists mostly of mountains, jungle and dense urban areas. Oh for sure you're correct about the technical skill levels of the military, the losses will mount to insane levels. But they kind of need to drastically reduce their incel population. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/february/chinas-navy-will-be-worlds-largest-2035 https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/february/chi... Their amphibious invasion fleet is literally being built right now. Confirmed via satellite imagery. They arent building these during an economic depression just for laughs. >It's so hard a task that in World War II the Allied forces (with a ton more experience, and a far more favorable balance of power, chose to invade Okinawa instead, where the US "only" suffered forty eight thousand battlefield casualties. This was still a lot less than the projected causalities of attacking a ridiculously underdefended Taiwan. Technology has greatly improved in the last 75 years. Lets not forget airborne as well. Remember, Taiwan has no military alliances. Taiwan's total population is around 25 million. China's PLA strength is probably in the 10 million or so area and I would never assert they are inexperienced. If we're talking inexperience, the incels they wish to shed, we're probably talking 100 million strength. Taiwan has literally no chance of defending against this. >The reason for TSMC to diversify is that Xi might be foolish enough to try this, and erratic and isolationist politicians in the US might fail to deter him. Taiwan doesn't have to fall for TSMC to gravely harm TSMC and the global economy, they merely have to start a war. The USA has withdrawn. TSMC makes up about 50% of the reasons, but realistically this isn't really about their economic strengths. This is about a unified china and Xi making the history books for a long time.

mytailorisrich 3y ago

TSMC, as a business, has nothing to fear from a mainland takeover beyond the risk of losing some overseas customers. It would be in the mainland's interest to keep TSMC running as smoothly as possible, like they did in HK. Diversifying outside of Taiwan is for the benefit of the US and allies. As you mention, for Taiwan this is a bad strategic move but they have no choice but to comply. > What matters a great deal more is India, Australia, Japan, and SK China has no military interest in any of those. Taiwan is Chinese territory. At most China might be interested in the part of historical Tibet that is now in India (and which it still claims) but realistically a war is no longer viable or realistic.

dev1ycan 3y ago
China won't do anything drastic to Taiwan/TSMC in fact they will prob keep their elections going just like with HK. The thing however is TSMC will suffer because once the US recognizes it as Chinese controlled territory, TSMC will be unable to buy EUV machines so their production will basically freeze at its current spot
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  Yes, the US would want to do that. But as things stand currently this would have to be balanced with the existence of alternatives to TSMC. This why the US want TSMC to build fabs in the West and affiliates.
- SR2Z 3y ago
  HK "elections" are a farce these days - only pro-China folk are allowed on the ballot. TSMC fabs in Taiwan would NOT belong to TSMC after an invasion, except maybe in name only.
  - dev1ycan 3y ago
    Democratic elections are a farce in general, only the $$ power behind allow candidates to run, right now it's always pro democracy candidates because the money behind them want them to, once the money comes from mainland China it becomes pro integration candidates. Anyone who believes otherwise is blind to reality.
    - hnfong 3y ago
      You've been out of date regarding Hong Kong politics for ~3 years mate. Probably should check out the latest developments before lecturing others about reality.
    - blackhawkC17 3y ago
      > Democratic elections are a farce in general, only the $$ power behind allow candidates to run, right now it's always pro democracy candidates because the money behind them want them to, once the money comes from mainland China it becomes pro integration candidates. This is frankly silly. Democracy has many issues, but that doesn't mean there's a cabal pulling strings behind choosing the candidates. The above is the typical excuse of autocrats and dictators that want to discredit democracy, even though it's by far the best governance model compared to the nonsense they want.
- Muromec 3y ago
  With the precision needed for lithography machine to run, I wander how they even managed to survive so far in such a seismically active place. Any military farting too loud in the vicinity of those machines and they don’t even freeze
deleted 3y ago
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zenapollo 3y ago
> nothing to fear Except any executive or employee not willing to bend the knee and gargle will be fired or perhaps a re-education retreat.
bell-cot 3y ago
> It would be in the mainland's interest to keep TSMC running... It would also be in the mainland's interests to not be engaging in a massive military build-up. Similar for quite a few major policies and behaviors which they've been indulging in for years now. Perhaps the CCP is not a rational actor, at least as we might prefer to account such things?
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  If China built its military in the same way the US did it would still have to grow by orders of magnitude... are the US the crazy ones, then? Or are there rational aims there?
Detrytus 3y ago
> Taiwan is Chinese territory. Historically, it would be more accurate to say that China is Taiwanese territory ;) > It would be in the mainland's interest to keep TSMC running as smoothly as possible, like they did in HK. Well, maybe, but they surely would redirect the output to China instead of selling it worldwide. Which is why the US would rather nuke the TSMC factories themselves than let them fall into Chinese hands. So, no matter who wins a military conflict for Taiwan TSMC most likely gets nuked by the losing side.
rhelz 3y ago
If there ever were a war between China and Taiwan, I think how cheap our chips are would be one of the least of our worries. If the U.S. got dragged into it, nobody would be worried about chip prices for the next ten thousand years. Diversifying the fab locations has no profit or business motivation. Seems to me the only reason we are doing it is to make it "less risky" to start a trade war. The problem is a trade war will never be "less risky" for any country than the kind of nice, harmonious, trade we've had with China for the past 25 years. Its kept U.S. inflation low, enabled massive technological and manufacturing advances, and has lifted hundreds of millions of people into the middle class. Its one of the best things that's ever happened in history. Why are we so eager to throw all that away? Frankly, instead of making it easier for everybody to pick a fight with each other, it would be better if we just remember the fact that we actually are friends. I love being able to design a circuit board, hit a button and have it manufactured in China and delivered to my front door in 5 days for $25. Let's just all go back to making money hand over fist, what say?
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  The US would never go to war against China. It is simply unrealistic. It'd be calibrated support like we're seeing in Ukraine but no direct engagement.
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    So was World War I unrealistic. I mean, look, I'm not in favor of a shooting war between the US and China. But I'm not as sanguine as you are that it can't happen.
    - rhelz 3y ago
      > World War I unrealistic. We're not talking about the first world war, we're talking about what would be the final world war. We can't be sanguine about it not happening, sure--we need to ensure it doesn't happen.
  - hmmmcurious1 3y ago
adrian_b 3y ago
> Taiwan is Chinese territory. Taiwan can be a Chinese territory only according to the law "might is right". For millenia, Taiwan has not been a Chinese territory. Only during the last few centuries there has been a massive migration of Fujian Chinese into Taiwan that has altered its population. Then after WWII Taiwan has been invaded by the Kuomintang, which has altered again the population of the island, so that now the non-Chinese native inhabitants have remained just a small minority. Taiwan has been officially a territory belonging to mainland China only between 1683 and 1895, which is a rather weak basis for claiming that Taiwan is a Chinese territory, not much better than claiming that Alaska is a Russian territory.
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  How long does a territory has to be part of a country for you to recognise it? If I look at a world map from "millenia" ago, or even just 1683 then by your logic most of the world's countries are built on a "weak basis", often even weaker than that... We all now the tricky political situation of Taiwan but sometimes some people seem to lose all sense of basic reality and facts about it.
  - adrian_b 3y ago
    You have missed my point. This is not the case of a territory that a country controls now, even if it has occupied it only recently (e.g. like Tibet), when nobody can contest that they are not the owners of the territory, unless they would be willing to attack them, to change the current ownership of the territory by force. This is the case of a territory that is not controlled by the country that desires to be its owner, and it has not been controlled by it since 1895. Despite that, they want to change the de facto ownership of the territory, which can be done only by force. The fact that some corrupt politicians from many countries have decided that de jure Taiwan should belong to China, without any grounds for this, so that they have given to China what was not theirs to give, is something as valid as the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, where Hitler, despite not being the owner of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Romania, has nonetheless given them to Russia, or the Churchill-Roosevelt-Stalin accords, where Churchill and Roosevelt, despite not being the owners of Eastern Europe, have given it to Stalin. There are other such cases where a country desires to become the owner of some territory, but they at least can justify their claims by the fact that the desired territory has actually belonged to them for a long time and it had been taken from them by force, so that it would be right for the territory to have its ownership reverted. In this case such historical claims have little value, because Taiwan has become Chinese only recently and only by force, first during the Qing dynasty and then due to the Kuomintang invasion.

amou234 3y ago

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swatcoder 3y ago

> If china has simply said no to war and put a stop to the ukraine war, china wouldbe doing so much better today. This has it backwards. Assuming China envisions a strong sphere of influence over Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific, which is a vision in conflict with the US sphere of influence over that region, their ability to manifest that vision directly benefit from conflicts that draw down US readiness. How far they get to exploit that conflict depends on other factors, including who presides over the next US administration, but in respect to this long-term vision they're in a better position for there being a war in Ukraine than not and so are invested in making it longer and more treacherous for Europe. And you see exactly that in their interactions with Russia.

deviantbit 3y ago

"China is suddenly wanting Trump to win, lets be realistic." China is telling people Trump will abandon Taiwan, and you believed their propaganda? Amazing how that works. The last person China wants is Trump. Trump already said he would increase tariffs on China. He also said he would ban the sell of Chinese cars in the United States. Not to mention, he said he sanction China for selling weapons to Russia, which Biden hasn't done.

incomingpain 3y ago
>China is telling people Trump will abandon Taiwan, and you believed their propaganda? Amazing how that works. Gotta read that again; not propaganda. This isn't some straight forward meaning to their words. >The last person China wants is Trump. Trump already said he would increase tariffs on China. He also said he would ban the sell of Chinese cars in the United States. Not to mention, he said he sanction China for selling weapons to Russia, which Biden hasn't done. China is in a economic depression and probably going to be near its bottom by the end of the year. The fear of tariffs is far lower today and realistically not that necessary. As I said though, 'suddenly' which essentially I agree with you, but it recently switched.
- deviantbit 3y ago
  China is far from a depression. Their economy grew by more than 5% this past quarter. That is far from a depression. Where do you come up with this? There is something seriously wrong with most people. You write things, and hope they are true. It is incredible. It's like Christians and other religious people. If I believe it, it will become reality.
  - euratai 3y ago
    China's 5% this quarter comes from massively subsidizing exports for its EV, battery, solar panels, at a steep loss per transaction, even though these type of exports are only 3% of overall exports. This is because their other engine of consumption and investment are failing. The window to do that is quickly closing, first with developed nations as Europe and US ramping up tariffs. Developing nations are starting to catch on, as Brazil and Mexico are hiking their tariffs on China as well. We'll see a steep drop of export (as we've seen for march [1]) for rest of the year. [1] China’s exports tumble 7.5% in March and imports also fall as demand slows https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-imports-b25c21299101d2483f946a0ce264662f https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-imports-b25c2...

deleted 3y ago

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impossiblefork 3y ago

You understand though, that if Taiwan falls, many of these experts may fall into Chinese hands, right? Letting China win won't give the US a microchip monopoly. It will give China a chance to talk to experts familiar with the state of the art.

msabalau 3y ago

There is nothing "inevitable" about Taiwan falling. China would have to take an inexperienced military and accomplish one of the hardest things imaginable, an amphibious invasion that can only happen in narrow time windows at handful of spots on an island that consists mostly of mountains, jungle and dense urban areas. It's so hard a task that in World War II the Allied forces (with a ton more experience, and a far more favorable balance of power, chose to invade Okinawa instead, where the US "only" suffered forty eight thousand battlefield casualties. This was still a lot less than the projected causalities of attacking a ridiculously underdefended Taiwan. The reason for TSMC to diversify is that Xi might be foolish enough to try this, and erratic and isolationist politicians in the US might fail to deter him. Taiwan doesn't have to fall for TSMC to gravely harm TSMC and the global economy, they merely have to start a war.

failuser 3y ago
Imagine if China starts with blowing up TSMC with long-range weapons. How will the West react if Taiwan no longer has that leverage? Before Russia actually invaded Ukraine I was more optimistic about this.
incomingpain 3y ago
>There is nothing "inevitable" about Taiwan falling. Obviously I dont own a crystal ball and cannot predict the future but I stand by the prediction. > China would have to take an inexperienced military and accomplish one of the hardest things imaginable, an amphibious invasion that can only happen in narrow time windows at handful of spots on an island that consists mostly of mountains, jungle and dense urban areas. Oh for sure you're correct about the technical skill levels of the military, the losses will mount to insane levels. But they kind of need to drastically reduce their incel population. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/february/chinas-navy-will-be-worlds-largest-2035 https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/february/chi... Their amphibious invasion fleet is literally being built right now. Confirmed via satellite imagery. They arent building these during an economic depression just for laughs. >It's so hard a task that in World War II the Allied forces (with a ton more experience, and a far more favorable balance of power, chose to invade Okinawa instead, where the US "only" suffered forty eight thousand battlefield casualties. This was still a lot less than the projected causalities of attacking a ridiculously underdefended Taiwan. Technology has greatly improved in the last 75 years. Lets not forget airborne as well. Remember, Taiwan has no military alliances. Taiwan's total population is around 25 million. China's PLA strength is probably in the 10 million or so area and I would never assert they are inexperienced. If we're talking inexperience, the incels they wish to shed, we're probably talking 100 million strength. Taiwan has literally no chance of defending against this. >The reason for TSMC to diversify is that Xi might be foolish enough to try this, and erratic and isolationist politicians in the US might fail to deter him. Taiwan doesn't have to fall for TSMC to gravely harm TSMC and the global economy, they merely have to start a war. The USA has withdrawn. TSMC makes up about 50% of the reasons, but realistically this isn't really about their economic strengths. This is about a unified china and Xi making the history books for a long time.