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Tiny missiles which are practically cost-free compared to conventional weapons, difficult to track by your enemies, and not just difficult to take out of the ai

Tiny missiles which are practically cost-free compared to conventional weapons, difficult to track by your enemies, and not just difficult to take out of the air, but oftentimes several orders of magnitude more expensive than the drone itself. Part of their effectiveness lies in the economic asymmetry involved.

fnordpiglet 2y ago
Yes in the recent Iran attack on Israel the interceptors cost about $3mm each and the drones range from $20k to $2k. That asymmetry leads to a calculus of attack through overwhelming mass that’s so vast it’s impractical if not impossible to resist it. https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-launch-than-shoot-down-ukraine-nyt-2023-1?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-... https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-penta... https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-coverage/card/israel-s-cost-of-intercepting-iranian-barrage-is-put-at-over-550-million-uamrOjZkoRBNGRfjWbD6 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-co... In fact the US DoD is already proposing a “hellscape” capability this is precisely built around this idea as the primary method of countering China in the future. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/ https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-...
- 0171481 2y ago
  Same thing happening in Ukraine. I actually think this is one of the huge stories that almost nobody is talking about right now. Sudden paradigm shift means big changes can happen quickly. You have a fantastic username btw.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > stories that almost nobody is talking about right now It is being talked about non-stop in military and international relations news. The point isn’t that drones are being ignored. It is that self-destructing drones are best thought of as a new niche of missile, one that is cheaper and more manoeuvrable than a conventional missile at the expense of speed. (As opposed to drones' traditional framing as tiny planes.)
dgroshev 2y ago
They aren't free. Autonomy is computationally and sensor hungry, and consumes a lot of power. The moment a platform approaches the capabilities you are thinking of, it stops being cheap and stops being small. All while those drones are stopped by doors, curtains, strong wind, any kind of mist or darkness (unless you use thermal vision, which is $$$), or rain.
- fnordpiglet 2y ago
  Thermal vision isn’t particularly expensive (I can get a high resolution compact IR camera for less than $20 on AliExpress now) and turkey is already fielding AI loitering munitions that are fully autonomous. Drones with weapons aren’t stopped by curtains or doors, and modern drones aren’t stopped by winds. I can fly my consumer DJI on a day with strong winds just fine. I think you’re underestimating the rate of change in the technology and cost space along every one of these dimensions. Your assessment was true 5 years ago, isn’t true now, and will seem anachronistic in another 5.
  - dgroshev 2y ago
    The context of my reply is that "slaughterbot" short video, not 100kg+ drones. It goes both ways. Just half a century years ago plenty of people were convinced we'd be having flying cars by now, projecting the speed of progress in one particular area forward. It doesn't work like that, progress in any given area is S-shaped, not exponential. It's even worse when processes are adversarial. Where are the TB2s in Ukraine? Are you aware that FPV drones seem to have less than 10% success ratio nowadays?
    - fnordpiglet 2y ago
      My DJI weighs about 1kg and I could put explosives and enough compute on it for less than 100g to be self guided and lethal today, as well as cover every other dimension you mentioned. The problem with flying cars is the physics at that time wasn’t conceivable (but is now it’s just I’m practically useless). The technology exists to do everything discussed by a DIY effort. It’s not about some quantum leap in ability. It’s about scale, cost reduction, and improvement of existing tooling and tying it all together. Which militaries world wide are -already- doing. A 10% success ratio when the munition costs an order or two magnitude less is a winning proposition. The key isn’t each drone being successful it’s about launching 100,000 drones at once and being unstoppable en masse

fnordpiglet 2y ago

Yes in the recent Iran attack on Israel the interceptors cost about $3mm each and the drones range from $20k to $2k. That asymmetry leads to a calculus of attack through overwhelming mass that’s so vast it’s impractical if not impossible to resist it. https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-launch-than-shoot-down-ukraine-nyt-2023-1?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-... https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-penta... https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-coverage/card/israel-s-cost-of-intercepting-iranian-barrage-is-put-at-over-550-million-uamrOjZkoRBNGRfjWbD6 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-co... In fact the US DoD is already proposing a “hellscape” capability this is precisely built around this idea as the primary method of countering China in the future. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/ https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-...

0171481 2y ago
Same thing happening in Ukraine. I actually think this is one of the huge stories that almost nobody is talking about right now. Sudden paradigm shift means big changes can happen quickly. You have a fantastic username btw.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > stories that almost nobody is talking about right now It is being talked about non-stop in military and international relations news. The point isn’t that drones are being ignored. It is that self-destructing drones are best thought of as a new niche of missile, one that is cheaper and more manoeuvrable than a conventional missile at the expense of speed. (As opposed to drones' traditional framing as tiny planes.)

dgroshev 2y ago

They aren't free. Autonomy is computationally and sensor hungry, and consumes a lot of power. The moment a platform approaches the capabilities you are thinking of, it stops being cheap and stops being small. All while those drones are stopped by doors, curtains, strong wind, any kind of mist or darkness (unless you use thermal vision, which is $$$), or rain.

fnordpiglet 2y ago
Thermal vision isn’t particularly expensive (I can get a high resolution compact IR camera for less than $20 on AliExpress now) and turkey is already fielding AI loitering munitions that are fully autonomous. Drones with weapons aren’t stopped by curtains or doors, and modern drones aren’t stopped by winds. I can fly my consumer DJI on a day with strong winds just fine. I think you’re underestimating the rate of change in the technology and cost space along every one of these dimensions. Your assessment was true 5 years ago, isn’t true now, and will seem anachronistic in another 5.
- dgroshev 2y ago
  The context of my reply is that "slaughterbot" short video, not 100kg+ drones. It goes both ways. Just half a century years ago plenty of people were convinced we'd be having flying cars by now, projecting the speed of progress in one particular area forward. It doesn't work like that, progress in any given area is S-shaped, not exponential. It's even worse when processes are adversarial. Where are the TB2s in Ukraine? Are you aware that FPV drones seem to have less than 10% success ratio nowadays?
  - fnordpiglet 2y ago
    My DJI weighs about 1kg and I could put explosives and enough compute on it for less than 100g to be self guided and lethal today, as well as cover every other dimension you mentioned. The problem with flying cars is the physics at that time wasn’t conceivable (but is now it’s just I’m practically useless). The technology exists to do everything discussed by a DIY effort. It’s not about some quantum leap in ability. It’s about scale, cost reduction, and improvement of existing tooling and tying it all together. Which militaries world wide are -already- doing. A 10% success ratio when the munition costs an order or two magnitude less is a winning proposition. The key isn’t each drone being successful it’s about launching 100,000 drones at once and being unstoppable en masse