6 ms·

I think more likely a AI kill bot drone will be the way we die. You can build ten for the cost of one fire and forget missile, and it will be a lot more precise

I think more likely a AI kill bot drone will be the way we die. You can build ten for the cost of one fire and forget missile, and it will be a lot more precise only killing the humans and leaving the infrastructure intact.

amluto 3y ago
What, exactly, is the difference between an “AI kill bot drone” and a missile?
- uoaei 3y ago
  See: Slaughterbots (2017) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    While a compelling short film, those tiny quadcopters are handicapped missiles. They fly slowly enough that modern anti-drone systems could engage them; their use of visual sensors leaves them vulnerable to laser blinding. Self-destructing drones are missiles trading manoeuvrability for speed.
    - ribosometronome 3y ago
      Going to be expensive to equip every area with anti-drone systems.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
    - 0171481 3y ago
      Tiny missiles which are practically cost-free compared to conventional weapons, difficult to track by your enemies, and not just difficult to take out of the air, but oftentimes several orders of magnitude more expensive than the drone itself. Part of their effectiveness lies in the economic asymmetry involved.
      - fnordpiglet 3y ago
        Yes in the recent Iran attack on Israel the interceptors cost about $3mm each and the drones range from $20k to $2k. That asymmetry leads to a calculus of attack through overwhelming mass that’s so vast it’s impractical if not impossible to resist it. https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-launch-than-shoot-down-ukraine-nyt-2023-1?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-... https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-penta... https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-coverage/card/israel-s-cost-of-intercepting-iranian-barrage-is-put-at-over-550-million-uamrOjZkoRBNGRfjWbD6 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-co... In fact the US DoD is already proposing a “hellscape” capability this is precisely built around this idea as the primary method of countering China in the future. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/ https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-...
        0171481 3y ago
        Same thing happening in Ukraine. I actually think this is one of the huge stories that almost nobody is talking about right now. Sudden paradigm shift means big changes can happen quickly. You have a fantastic username btw.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > stories that almost nobody is talking about right now It is being talked about non-stop in military and international relations news. The point isn’t that drones are being ignored. It is that self-destructing drones are best thought of as a new niche of missile, one that is cheaper and more manoeuvrable than a conventional missile at the expense of speed. (As opposed to drones' traditional framing as tiny planes.)
      - dgroshev 3y ago
        They aren't free. Autonomy is computationally and sensor hungry, and consumes a lot of power. The moment a platform approaches the capabilities you are thinking of, it stops being cheap and stops being small. All while those drones are stopped by doors, curtains, strong wind, any kind of mist or darkness (unless you use thermal vision, which is $$$), or rain.
- f4ncyp4ntz 3y ago
  [dead]
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  I can drop a cluster bomb filled with drones into a city, army base, factory and they kill everyone with precision and are collectively almost unstoppable. Yes flying a large drone a few hundred miles over enemy fortifications is quite stoppable compared to a hypersonic missile. So, don’t do that.
  - davemp 3y ago
    > I can drop a cluster bomb filled with drones into a city, army base, factory and they kill everyone with precision and are collectively almost unstoppable. Citation needed.
  - hackerlight 3y ago
    Defensive laser weapon
    - salad-tycoon 3y ago
      Lasers rays? More like a ray of failure. Shift your spectrum, Microwaves are in and lasers are out. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39873977 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39873977 And https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-microwave-weapons-could-defend-against-swarms-of-combat-drones/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-microwave-wea...
- harshreality 3y ago
  Reusability, good maneuverability, range, loiter time. Something to close the gap to dispense cheaper munitions than long-range guided missiles. And to do so with a dramatically faster OODA loop. Flying sausages with rocket motors and stubby wings don't do very well by most metrics.
- numpad0 3y ago
  US Export control frameworks managed to keep missile technologies from reimplemented by bored teenagers while actual guided munition technology were left stalling for decades(for better or worse - Ukraine is running out of SAMs daily), resulting in media narrative disconnect between those.
- toss1 3y ago
  The AI bot/drone returns home It is also a lot more maneuverable and has far more flexible mission profiles

amluto 3y ago

What, exactly, is the difference between an “AI kill bot drone” and a missile?

uoaei 3y ago
See: Slaughterbots (2017) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  While a compelling short film, those tiny quadcopters are handicapped missiles. They fly slowly enough that modern anti-drone systems could engage them; their use of visual sensors leaves them vulnerable to laser blinding. Self-destructing drones are missiles trading manoeuvrability for speed.
  - ribosometronome 3y ago
    Going to be expensive to equip every area with anti-drone systems.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - 0171481 3y ago
    Tiny missiles which are practically cost-free compared to conventional weapons, difficult to track by your enemies, and not just difficult to take out of the air, but oftentimes several orders of magnitude more expensive than the drone itself. Part of their effectiveness lies in the economic asymmetry involved.
    - fnordpiglet 3y ago
      Yes in the recent Iran attack on Israel the interceptors cost about $3mm each and the drones range from $20k to $2k. That asymmetry leads to a calculus of attack through overwhelming mass that’s so vast it’s impractical if not impossible to resist it. https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-launch-than-shoot-down-ukraine-nyt-2023-1?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-... https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-penta... https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-coverage/card/israel-s-cost-of-intercepting-iranian-barrage-is-put-at-over-550-million-uamrOjZkoRBNGRfjWbD6 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-strikes-live-co... In fact the US DoD is already proposing a “hellscape” capability this is precisely built around this idea as the primary method of countering China in the future. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/ https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-...
      - 0171481 3y ago
        Same thing happening in Ukraine. I actually think this is one of the huge stories that almost nobody is talking about right now. Sudden paradigm shift means big changes can happen quickly. You have a fantastic username btw.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > stories that almost nobody is talking about right now It is being talked about non-stop in military and international relations news. The point isn’t that drones are being ignored. It is that self-destructing drones are best thought of as a new niche of missile, one that is cheaper and more manoeuvrable than a conventional missile at the expense of speed. (As opposed to drones' traditional framing as tiny planes.)
    - dgroshev 3y ago
      They aren't free. Autonomy is computationally and sensor hungry, and consumes a lot of power. The moment a platform approaches the capabilities you are thinking of, it stops being cheap and stops being small. All while those drones are stopped by doors, curtains, strong wind, any kind of mist or darkness (unless you use thermal vision, which is $$$), or rain.
f4ncyp4ntz 3y ago
[dead]
fnordpiglet 3y ago
I can drop a cluster bomb filled with drones into a city, army base, factory and they kill everyone with precision and are collectively almost unstoppable. Yes flying a large drone a few hundred miles over enemy fortifications is quite stoppable compared to a hypersonic missile. So, don’t do that.
- davemp 3y ago
  > I can drop a cluster bomb filled with drones into a city, army base, factory and they kill everyone with precision and are collectively almost unstoppable. Citation needed.
- hackerlight 3y ago
  Defensive laser weapon
  - salad-tycoon 3y ago
    Lasers rays? More like a ray of failure. Shift your spectrum, Microwaves are in and lasers are out. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39873977 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39873977 And https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-microwave-weapons-could-defend-against-swarms-of-combat-drones/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-microwave-wea...
harshreality 3y ago
Reusability, good maneuverability, range, loiter time. Something to close the gap to dispense cheaper munitions than long-range guided missiles. And to do so with a dramatically faster OODA loop. Flying sausages with rocket motors and stubby wings don't do very well by most metrics.
numpad0 3y ago
US Export control frameworks managed to keep missile technologies from reimplemented by bored teenagers while actual guided munition technology were left stalling for decades(for better or worse - Ukraine is running out of SAMs daily), resulting in media narrative disconnect between those.
toss1 3y ago
The AI bot/drone returns home It is also a lot more maneuverable and has far more flexible mission profiles