5 ms·

2 years ago I worked at Intel and they talked about Moore's law and how people always said it would end, but it never does due to continued innovation. I think

2 years ago I worked at Intel and they talked about Moore's law and how people always said it would end, but it never does due to continued innovation. I think everyone knows they have a lot of people working on a lot of possible solutions to these physics problems. Intel is like a supercharged academia where hitting objectives matters. They don’t want engineers/physicists that say it cannot be done, those people are stuck on the outside writing posts like this one. Those posts come up continually, (do a search for “end of moore’s law 200X) and you will see articles written every year. Here is a recent quote from an interview with Mark Bohr, Intel's senior fellow and director of process architecture and integration. “"The end of Moore's law has always been 10 years away, and it will always be 10 years away," he said. He's been hearing predictions about the end of scaling since he joined the industry 30 years ago, so he isn't worried. He said 14nm is in full development and on track for manufacturing readiness in the second half of next year.” http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/show-reports/297801-intel-the-end-of-moore-s-law-is-still-10-years-away http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/show-reports/297801-intel-t...

Retric 14y ago
For a while transistor density's doubled every 12 months. That stopped happening, then for a while they doubled every 18 months until that stopped happening. Now, if your willing to accept transistors doubling every 50,000 years as the same exponential growth as doubling every 12 months then sure it will continue for a long time. But, that's not what 'Moore's law' as originally stated.
- wtvanhest 14y ago
  Since 1975 it has been every 24 months. I have never heard the 12 month number until reading it on HN today. Someone at Intel at some point said 18 months, but it was most likely a 1 off conversation/presentation rather than a restatement of the law and occured well after 1975.
  - Retric 14y ago
    12 months is what he actually said in 1965. The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.[2][3][4] The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years".[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law
    - wtvanhest 14y ago
      I wish people would stop citing wiki on HN, especially without reading the entire page. On the exact same wiki page under history it says: Moore slightly altered the formulation of the law over time, in retrospect bolstering the perceived accuracy of his law.[17] Most notably, in 1975, Moore altered his projection to a doubling every two years.[18][19] Despite popular misconception, he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months." However, David House, an Intel colleague, had factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months.[note 2]

Retric 14y ago

For a while transistor density's doubled every 12 months. That stopped happening, then for a while they doubled every 18 months until that stopped happening. Now, if your willing to accept transistors doubling every 50,000 years as the same exponential growth as doubling every 12 months then sure it will continue for a long time. But, that's not what 'Moore's law' as originally stated.

wtvanhest 14y ago
Since 1975 it has been every 24 months. I have never heard the 12 month number until reading it on HN today. Someone at Intel at some point said 18 months, but it was most likely a 1 off conversation/presentation rather than a restatement of the law and occured well after 1975.
- Retric 14y ago
  12 months is what he actually said in 1965. The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.[2][3][4] The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years".[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law
  - wtvanhest 14y ago
    I wish people would stop citing wiki on HN, especially without reading the entire page. On the exact same wiki page under history it says: Moore slightly altered the formulation of the law over time, in retrospect bolstering the perceived accuracy of his law.[17] Most notably, in 1975, Moore altered his projection to a doubling every two years.[18][19] Despite popular misconception, he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months." However, David House, an Intel colleague, had factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months.[note 2]