3 ms·

I subscribe to Kurzweil's camp in that I think the halting of Moore's law will pressure a paradigm shift in computing, like the electromechanical, relay-based,

I subscribe to Kurzweil's camp in that I think the halting of Moore's law will pressure a paradigm shift in computing, like the electromechanical, relay-based, vacuum tube, transistor paradigms, the integrated circuit paradigm will cease to be relevant when something like memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing comes into play.

anamax 14y ago
> the integrated circuit paradigm will cease to be relevant when something like memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing comes into play. What part of "integrated circuit paradigm" doesn't apply to memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing? I ask because HP's Williams seems to say that memristors are firmly in the "integrated circuit paradigm", but maybe he means something different than you do.
- spot 14y ago
  Moore's law is very much rooted in photolithography which is a 2D process. And memristors do fit in this. So does the 3d computing that intel is doing now, actually, since it still has a flat product. but if ever there were truly solid 3d computers then they might scale on a different curve, presumably sharper due to the cubic.
  - Retric 14y ago
    photolithography is already limited by heat density's. Going 3D sounds great but it's far less helpful than you might hope and clock speeds are dominated more by how long it takes a transistor to switch than how long it takes electricity to travel though those tiny wires.
  - anamax 14y ago
    > Moore's law is very much rooted in photolithography which is a 2D process. I don't see that "root". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law It states a doubling time. (That page is about number of circuits, but there's another "law" about fab costs.) It doesn't specify a technology or geometry. That doubling-time changed about 2005. Maybe 3D would change it, maybe it wouldn't. Note that cubes of active elements are harder to cool than planes.

anamax 14y ago

> the integrated circuit paradigm will cease to be relevant when something like memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing comes into play. What part of "integrated circuit paradigm" doesn't apply to memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing? I ask because HP's Williams seems to say that memristors are firmly in the "integrated circuit paradigm", but maybe he means something different than you do.

spot 14y ago
Moore's law is very much rooted in photolithography which is a 2D process. And memristors do fit in this. So does the 3d computing that intel is doing now, actually, since it still has a flat product. but if ever there were truly solid 3d computers then they might scale on a different curve, presumably sharper due to the cubic.
- Retric 14y ago
  photolithography is already limited by heat density's. Going 3D sounds great but it's far less helpful than you might hope and clock speeds are dominated more by how long it takes a transistor to switch than how long it takes electricity to travel though those tiny wires.
- anamax 14y ago
  > Moore's law is very much rooted in photolithography which is a 2D process. I don't see that "root". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moores_law It states a doubling time. (That page is about number of circuits, but there's another "law" about fab costs.) It doesn't specify a technology or geometry. That doubling-time changed about 2005. Maybe 3D would change it, maybe it wouldn't. Note that cubes of active elements are harder to cool than planes.