4 ms·
> How does one research and generate insights for what does not exist yet? It's Zeno's paradox of research: we cannot think about what does not already exist,
by mitthrowaway2 3y ago
> How does one research and generate insights for what does not exist yet?
It's Zeno's paradox of research: we cannot think about what does not already exist, therefore nothing new can ever be brought into existence!
- pfdietz 3y agoI call this "nothing can ever happen for the first time". One often hears it in passive-aggressive arguments against renewable energy.
- robertlagrant 3y agoNever heard that in that context. Can you cite an example?
- pfdietz 3y agoI constantly see the argument "no country has ever been powered by solar and wind", implying that it therefore can't be done, and that one should use nuclear instead (never mind the same is true of nuclear; not even France is fully nuclear powered).
- nwiswell 3y ago> never mind the same is true of nuclear; not even France is fully nuclear powered This seems somewhat bad-faith: nuclear does supply the majority of France's power, and since nuclear is a "base load" part of the mix, it would be inefficient to get 100% of power from nuclear rather than a peaking-friendly mix that includes e.g. hydro and gas.
- pfdietz 3y agoFocusing only on the grid is bad faith; if one includes non-grid energy use, France doesn't even get 50% of its energy from nuclear.
- robertlagrant 3y agoWhat's the non-grid energy use?
- pfdietz 3y agoTransportation, industry, maybe heating.
- robertlagrant 3y agoHow is that relevant in this context, though? Why is it bad faith when we're talking about grid-supplied electricity generation? We need electricity generation, and most of France's is nuclear. It seems uncontroversial.
- pfdietz 3y agoIt's because the "if it hasn't been done, it can't be done" argument applies to nuclear displacing fossil fuels. Remember, the decarbonization goal has to be all uses of fossil fuels, not just their use for the grid.
- robertlagrant 3y agoI honestly think we have crossed wires. I don't think anyone here is saying things can't be done based on history.
- pfdietz 3y agoI have repeatedly and literally seen this argument applied to renewables. I've even seen it on HN.
- krimskrams 3y agoAre you confusing electricity generation with electricity use? If we're counting off-grid electricity generation, then we're talking about A) critical infrastructure like utilities or B) off-grid homes or communities which typically use solar panels, small wind turbines or gas/biogas to generate their own power. The off-grid portion most likely make up a tiny portion of France's energy mix, which is dominated by nuclear (>50%).
- kragen 3y agoit seems plausible that all new things are brought into existence unintentionally. that is, you tried to create something you imagined, but what you actually created was something else. certainly there are many examples of thinking about renewable energy that were completely wrong because they were based on presumptions that no longer hold, or in some cases were already wrong but in a nonobvious way as my wife points out, we can't even imagine any of the things that do actually exist, only drastic simplifications thereof