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It's hubris and overconfidence that's common among startup founders who think they've found the solutions to all the world's problems. But it's not a "scam" to

It's hubris and overconfidence that's common among startup founders who think they've found the solutions to all the world's problems. But it's not a "scam" to release third-rate hardware after overhyping it. Magic Leap and many other startups did the same. "Scam" should be reserved for actual fraudulent startups like Theranos and Outcome Health.

akaru 2y ago
Strange hill to die on. Lots of people scam by expecting to right their wrongs in the end. Hell even Theranos may have believed with enough scam money they could eventually have made right with the tech. Still a scam. Same here. If it’s not what you’re selling, it’s a lie, and a lie is a scam.
- YetAnotherNick 2y ago
  > Strange hill to die on Not at all strange. The problem is that scam has certain meaning and if we use scam more liberally we dilute the meaning. If every company is a scam(as almost everyone intentionally overhypes or does something similar to humane), then no company is a scam. Is google a scam as they scripted the gemini video?
  - nathan_compton 2y ago
    I think the issue here is that arguably startup culture has _redefined_ scam to _not include_ "fake it till you make it gotta get funding" bullshit. In a previous era that stuff might arguably have been non-controversially been though of as a kind of scam. My own experience with startups is that they often hew as close to the line of scam as they can get away with and this behavior has been normalized.
    - YetAnotherNick 2y ago
      This has nothing to do with startup or current times. That's why I gave example of Google. Google is not a scam in my definition but still has clearly faked gemini demo. Even Wright brothers admitted to faking a lot of news and claims before they could make real working planes.[1][2] [1]: https://www.nps.gov/teachers/classrooms/the-wright-brothers-first-flight-fake-news.htm https://www.nps.gov/teachers/classrooms/the-wright-brothers-... [2]: http://wright-brothers.wikidot.com/ http://wright-brothers.wikidot.com/
      - nathan_compton 2y ago
        It still counts as a scam even if someone eventually succeeds. Whether the given thing is a scam depends on whether, at the moment of utterance, the statement is a lie meant to accomplish some goal or not. It doesn't exclude the possibility that success might happen someday. This is what I mean about the bizarre morals of startup hustler types. Lying to extend your runway is still lying and normal people still think its a scam.
        YetAnotherNick 2y ago
        Do you use any word to distinguish what google did in my example vs what theranos/FTX did? Or would you put both in the same category as one small lie is same as basing existence of a company on lie.
      - akaru 2y ago
        Is this the same google that raised money under the motto “don’t do evil”?
        rasz 2y ago
        Google raised money under the motto of: >Digital Library, “birds of a feather” identified inside sea of information so communities and groups could be tracked in an organized way "Highlands Forum", DLI (NSF, NASA and DARPA), MDDS program, In-Q-Tel etc https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-the-cia-made-google-e836451a959e https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-the-cia-made-goo...
  - krainboltgreene 2y ago
    > The problem is that scam has certain meaning and if we use scam more liberally we dilute the meaning Language is not something you can manipulate so easily and you absolutely cannot fight language changing, but also I promise that no one is diluting the meaning "scam".
    - YetAnotherNick 2y ago
      Saying google is scam similar to theranos/FTX dilutes the word scam.
      - krainboltgreene 2y ago
        If my boss uses my social security number to get a credit card it's not "diluting" the word fraud just because SBF also did fraud at a much larger scale. But like sure, tilt at that windmill.
        akaru 2y ago
        No kidding. I get the sentiment but the argument doesn’t hold water. A scam is a scam. There are big scams and small. There are lies big and small too. We can even call the small ones white lies. But they are still lies.
  - JohnFen 2y ago
    > Is google a scam as they scripted the gemini video? That video was more of a fraud than a scam, but I think we're just splitting hairs at that point.
dtagames 2y ago
Is selling something knowing that it can never deliver on the promise a scam? I think so. P.T. Barnum hawked shows outside the tent that couldn't deliver inside. Theranos could never deliver. Nor Magic Leap. Nor Elon on his crazy promises! They're all scammers.
- cynicalpeace 2y ago
  lol SpaceX has literally doubled the number of successful rocket launches since 2020
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - bathtub365 2y ago
    Despite this (and SpaceX seems to be the company of his that he is least involved in on a day to day basis) he has made many documented false promises. Playing with rockets shouldn’t excuse that https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/
    - Manabu-eo 2y ago
      SpaceX was the company he was most involved, and still is pretty involved. Just watch any factory tour he made, be it the 2005 ones or the new Texas ones. Or hear what people who worked with him talk. And I can't trust that site. An example: 3,129 days since Elon Musk said Teslas would have 1,000 kilometer (621 mile) range within a year or two. (9/23/2015) "My guess is probably we could break 1,000 kilometers within a year or two. I'd say 2017 for sure." An altered quote taken out of context. Here what he actually said from the interview[1]: Q: When will we break the 1000km range mark for an electric car? M: A thousand kilometers, hmm. Well, it depends under what circumstances for a thousand kilometers. As it is, the record right now for Model S is 800 km. That is the furthest that anyone has driven a Model S... Q: So we could be close? M: Yeah, we're pretty close. Now, in order to do that they did drive at a relatively slow speed. So, you know, we're taking, I think they drove maybe at 40 or 50 km/h or something like that. But I think, my guess is probably we could break a 1000km within... a year or two? Q: Okay, so within 2016 maybe even? M: I say if you say 2017 I'd say 2017 for sure. His prediction turned out completely accurate[2]. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl5vLC3Xlgc&feature=youtu.be&t=379 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl5vLC3Xlgc&feature=youtu.be... 2: https://electrek.co/2017/08/04/a-tesla-model-s-100d-just-drove-670-miles-1078km-on-a-single-charge/ https://electrek.co/2017/08/04/a-tesla-model-s-100d-just-dro...
DemocracyFTW2 2y ago
enough of "hubris and overconfidence" and you do cross into full-on scam territory

akaru 2y ago

Strange hill to die on. Lots of people scam by expecting to right their wrongs in the end. Hell even Theranos may have believed with enough scam money they could eventually have made right with the tech. Still a scam. Same here. If it’s not what you’re selling, it’s a lie, and a lie is a scam.

YetAnotherNick 2y ago
> Strange hill to die on Not at all strange. The problem is that scam has certain meaning and if we use scam more liberally we dilute the meaning. If every company is a scam(as almost everyone intentionally overhypes or does something similar to humane), then no company is a scam. Is google a scam as they scripted the gemini video?
- nathan_compton 2y ago
  I think the issue here is that arguably startup culture has _redefined_ scam to _not include_ "fake it till you make it gotta get funding" bullshit. In a previous era that stuff might arguably have been non-controversially been though of as a kind of scam. My own experience with startups is that they often hew as close to the line of scam as they can get away with and this behavior has been normalized.
  - YetAnotherNick 2y ago
    This has nothing to do with startup or current times. That's why I gave example of Google. Google is not a scam in my definition but still has clearly faked gemini demo. Even Wright brothers admitted to faking a lot of news and claims before they could make real working planes.[1][2] [1]: https://www.nps.gov/teachers/classrooms/the-wright-brothers-first-flight-fake-news.htm https://www.nps.gov/teachers/classrooms/the-wright-brothers-... [2]: http://wright-brothers.wikidot.com/ http://wright-brothers.wikidot.com/
    - nathan_compton 2y ago
      It still counts as a scam even if someone eventually succeeds. Whether the given thing is a scam depends on whether, at the moment of utterance, the statement is a lie meant to accomplish some goal or not. It doesn't exclude the possibility that success might happen someday. This is what I mean about the bizarre morals of startup hustler types. Lying to extend your runway is still lying and normal people still think its a scam.
      - YetAnotherNick 2y ago
        Do you use any word to distinguish what google did in my example vs what theranos/FTX did? Or would you put both in the same category as one small lie is same as basing existence of a company on lie.
    - akaru 2y ago
      Is this the same google that raised money under the motto “don’t do evil”?
      - rasz 2y ago
        Google raised money under the motto of: >Digital Library, “birds of a feather” identified inside sea of information so communities and groups could be tracked in an organized way "Highlands Forum", DLI (NSF, NASA and DARPA), MDDS program, In-Q-Tel etc https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-the-cia-made-google-e836451a959e https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-the-cia-made-goo...
- krainboltgreene 2y ago
  > The problem is that scam has certain meaning and if we use scam more liberally we dilute the meaning Language is not something you can manipulate so easily and you absolutely cannot fight language changing, but also I promise that no one is diluting the meaning "scam".
  - YetAnotherNick 2y ago
    Saying google is scam similar to theranos/FTX dilutes the word scam.
    - krainboltgreene 2y ago
      If my boss uses my social security number to get a credit card it's not "diluting" the word fraud just because SBF also did fraud at a much larger scale. But like sure, tilt at that windmill.
      - akaru 2y ago
        No kidding. I get the sentiment but the argument doesn’t hold water. A scam is a scam. There are big scams and small. There are lies big and small too. We can even call the small ones white lies. But they are still lies.
- JohnFen 2y ago
  > Is google a scam as they scripted the gemini video? That video was more of a fraud than a scam, but I think we're just splitting hairs at that point.

dtagames 2y ago

Is selling something knowing that it can never deliver on the promise a scam? I think so. P.T. Barnum hawked shows outside the tent that couldn't deliver inside. Theranos could never deliver. Nor Magic Leap. Nor Elon on his crazy promises! They're all scammers.

cynicalpeace 2y ago
lol SpaceX has literally doubled the number of successful rocket launches since 2020
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- bathtub365 2y ago
  Despite this (and SpaceX seems to be the company of his that he is least involved in on a day to day basis) he has made many documented false promises. Playing with rockets shouldn’t excuse that https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/
  - Manabu-eo 2y ago
    SpaceX was the company he was most involved, and still is pretty involved. Just watch any factory tour he made, be it the 2005 ones or the new Texas ones. Or hear what people who worked with him talk. And I can't trust that site. An example: 3,129 days since Elon Musk said Teslas would have 1,000 kilometer (621 mile) range within a year or two. (9/23/2015) "My guess is probably we could break 1,000 kilometers within a year or two. I'd say 2017 for sure." An altered quote taken out of context. Here what he actually said from the interview[1]: Q: When will we break the 1000km range mark for an electric car? M: A thousand kilometers, hmm. Well, it depends under what circumstances for a thousand kilometers. As it is, the record right now for Model S is 800 km. That is the furthest that anyone has driven a Model S... Q: So we could be close? M: Yeah, we're pretty close. Now, in order to do that they did drive at a relatively slow speed. So, you know, we're taking, I think they drove maybe at 40 or 50 km/h or something like that. But I think, my guess is probably we could break a 1000km within... a year or two? Q: Okay, so within 2016 maybe even? M: I say if you say 2017 I'd say 2017 for sure. His prediction turned out completely accurate[2]. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl5vLC3Xlgc&feature=youtu.be&t=379 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl5vLC3Xlgc&feature=youtu.be... 2: https://electrek.co/2017/08/04/a-tesla-model-s-100d-just-drove-670-miles-1078km-on-a-single-charge/ https://electrek.co/2017/08/04/a-tesla-model-s-100d-just-dro...

DemocracyFTW2 2y ago

enough of "hubris and overconfidence" and you do cross into full-on scam territory