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> There's also just the incident treadmill. Boeing is getting all the bad news now for good reasons, but how confident are we that there isn't a similar Airbus
by piva00 3y ago
> There's also just the incident treadmill. Boeing is getting all the bad news now for good reasons, but how confident are we that there isn't a similar Airbus issue that'll come out soon?
That's not how confidence works, while Airbus has confidence from the public and doesn't do something to lose it, they have the upper hand.
You are trying to use numbers and statistics to fight against a loss of confidence, that won't work in the short to medium term, confidence and trust is built upon human emotions, not hard data. There's a reason why "loss of confidence" is a major trigger for economic crisis, the feeling itself triggers a domino effect that feedback into the issue, aggravating it.
The same is happening to Boeing, they lost confidence while Airbus didn't, people won't trust Boeing, bad press will be focusing on Boeing, so on and so forth, until they have regained confidence. It's well deserved, if they didn't lose it they could continue their practices and potentially worsen the safety of their products since there wouldn't be blowback triggering fear in their executives, loss of confidence is working as intended.
- noirbot 3y agoFor sure. I totally agree with you about what's happening from a business perspective, but I'm just pointing out that it's innately not completely rational and it's not necessarily a good guide to how we should think about risks as a customer. You see this in the cycle of "OMG, GCP had a big security issue, move to AWS!" and then in 6 months it's "AWS has a big security issue, move to Azure!" and then later it's "Azure has a big issue, move to... ???". It's not that you shouldn't pay attention to the incidents, just that when you're evaluating risks, it's important to not just assume that the most recent and high profile problem is indicative of higher risk in that system, as opposed to it being that system's chance to have its 0.01% failure case hit. As they say in finance, past performance is not indicative of future outcomes.